Lines are being released today. Check back here for information as it breaks! For now, check out this article from Julian Walker this morning on the gerrymander that is about to hit Hampton Roads.
UPDATE: Maps are scheduled to hit the legislative services website at 3:30 p.m.
UPDATE #2- Some are now speculating 4:30 or 5:00.
Counting the Eastern Shore, the current Tidewater Senate districts are about 130,000 or so under populated - more if you count Louise Lucas's. That seems like a pretty good spot to pull a Senate seat as the districts will still be fairly compact and due to the large number of districts back-to-back that need to increase population by 10% or so. Pulling a Senate seat from the rural areas would be worse since the neighboring districts - already pretty large - would get much bigger. Looking at the VPAP maps, the only other area with as many neighboring districts that are very underpopulated is Southwest, and there are only four Senate districts out there. In Tidewater, there are nine already heavily gerrymandered - and segregated - Senate districts that are all underpopulated and all come within 10-15 miles of each other in the Norfolk/Newport News stretch of I-64.
Posted by: NotJohnSMosby | March 29, 2011 at 10:40 AM
off topic fyi, Brian Moran shilling for the for profit schools on CNBC right now.
Posted by: anon | March 29, 2011 at 10:50 AM
*facepalm*
Thanks anon.
Posted by: Not Larry Sabato | March 29, 2011 at 10:52 AM
All any Democrat should care about is keeping the state Senate in Democratic hands. Any other considerations are hopelessly naive.
I'm not happy, either, that Comstock might get a slightly more GOP-friendly boundaries in HD-34 where I live and vote.
But the state Senate is our only firewall, and a deal to protect it is a deal to embrace.
Posted by: DCCyclone | March 29, 2011 at 10:54 AM
Oh, please!
Of course McDonell's guidelines call for keeping cities together as much as possible. That's what's good for Republicans.
Voters do not distribute randomly across the map, and across likelihood that they will vote D vs R. D voters are concentrated in cities, sometimes very concentrated.
If you design districts with a high priority to creating compact districts that keep voters in cities together and unmixed with suburban/exurban/rural voters, what you're doing is creating districts where there are large numbers of "wasted" D votes in a few overwhelmingly D urban districts, while there are many more districts that the Rs control by much smaller margins.
You can take a state that is equally split D/R, or even a bit more D than R, and end up with a map that gives the Rs the clear edge in a clear majority of districts. This guideline of McDonell's, unsurprisignly, leads to just such a map. Let's not pretend that outcome is driven by good government sentiment.
Posted by: Glen Tomkins | March 29, 2011 at 11:23 AM
Apparently, the Democrat talking points about redistricting are quickly abandoned when power is at issue.
Posted by: James Young | March 29, 2011 at 11:29 AM
Rethug James Young,
The talking points come from a commission established at all by the choice of YOUR party's Governor.
Whatever Ben or some other Dems want, they don't represent any Democratic consensus.
When your party is willing to put at least a dozen GOP-held Assembly seats in jeopardy, then you can lecture about "power."
Posted by: DCCyclone | March 29, 2011 at 02:16 PM
Considering that the congressional districts can be drawns 8-3 either way (and guess which way it's going to go???) the idea that Democrats are some how out of line here is laughable.
Posted by: GretchenLaskas | March 29, 2011 at 02:20 PM
I can't handle the pressure!
Posted by: Ghost of Henry Howell | March 29, 2011 at 03:28 PM
Gretch: We're going to get a half-hearted Dem gerrymander from the Senate, which the Republicans will raise hell about, ignoring the partisan slaughter they do in the House. Typical, "pay-no-attention-to-the-man-behind-the-curtain,-watch-this-shiny- object" GOP strategy. And, to give them their props, it usually works for them.
Posted by: Steve Vaughan | March 29, 2011 at 03:34 PM
I hope both sides are successful in gerrymandering enough to keep a split government.
We have seen what happens when either side gets too powerful.
Posted by: change | March 29, 2011 at 03:47 PM
Change: That certainly shouldn't be a problem for the House. The Senate's got a lot less margin for error to get that done.
Posted by: Steve Vaughan | March 29, 2011 at 04:06 PM
DCWindbag: I'm not lecturing anyone, but neither have I abandoned the utility of drawing the lines to partisan advantage precisely at the point where my party lost political power through irresistible realignment.
The simple fact of the matter is that Democrats started complaining about gerrymandering only when they weren't in charge of it anymore.
Posted by: James Young | March 29, 2011 at 04:14 PM
JY-that's a fact. As I recall that was just about the time Republicans became comfortable with the gerrymanders. It's all about whose ox is being gored.
Posted by: Steve Vaughan | March 29, 2011 at 04:19 PM
I AM ANXIOUS. haha
But seriously, let's get this show on the road.
Posted by: Samuel Gilleran | March 29, 2011 at 04:25 PM
I have no problem poking holes into Democrats (heaven knows we deserve it often enough) but I find santimonious self-righteousness (political or not) tedious.
Of course, my effectiveness as an activist might be better if I did not think that way and engaged in more partisan shots and less eye rolling....
Dorky as it sounds, I'm kind of excited. This is the first time I've waited for the redistricting to come out knowing that it would have an impact on me and mine. (We moved states in 1991 and in 2001.)
Posted by: GretchenLaskas | March 29, 2011 at 04:49 PM
James Young,
You wrote: "The simple fact of the matter is that Democrats started complaining about gerrymandering only when they weren't in charge of it anymore."
That is not true. The Senate Dems passed a non-partisan redistricting bill the last 4 years (while they were in power) and the House Republicans killed it while Gov. McDonnell sat on the sidelines.
I was not happy when the Dem Senators voted to give away the pen but I am happy to see then get to draw the lines.
Respectfully yours,
Posted by: Not a cartographer | March 29, 2011 at 04:59 PM
Okay, enough waiting already.
Posted by: Geoff | March 29, 2011 at 05:02 PM
The Senate plan is up - and the website is on it's knees. It's taking over a minute for each page to come up.
Posted by: NotJohnSMosby | March 29, 2011 at 05:05 PM
Eh, Senate map is up. Taking forever to load though.
Posted by: Geoff | March 29, 2011 at 05:07 PM
It crashing.
Posted by: getabetterserver | March 29, 2011 at 05:07 PM
Link?
Posted by: Just a question | March 29, 2011 at 05:13 PM
Looks to me like the link for the Senate map is no longer there. It wasn't loading so perhaps someone is fixing things.
Posted by: Geoff | March 29, 2011 at 05:14 PM
Totally FUBAR, I guess they weren't anticipating that many people would want to see the plans - idiots.
Posted by: NotJohnSMosby | March 29, 2011 at 05:16 PM
Well, there are two plans, Howell's and Watkin's. It would be nice to see them though.
Posted by: NotJohnSMosby | March 29, 2011 at 05:18 PM
Check out the epic gerrymander between the 20th and the 15th.
Posted by: Samuel Gilleran | March 29, 2011 at 05:20 PM
Dammit, why the hell can't I see a link to either of those plans now?
Posted by: Geoff | March 29, 2011 at 05:23 PM
Toddy's in Stafford. Mary Margaret's in Loudoun. Roscoe has part of Arlington.
(1 of 3 statements is not true)
Posted by: Ghost of Henry Howell | March 29, 2011 at 05:24 PM
Whoa, check out the new 22nd - and Arlington split three ways?
Posted by: NotJohnSMosby | March 29, 2011 at 05:24 PM
Am I missing something? I'm on plan list page where I saw Howell's link for a moment earlier. Now nothing is appearing except for links to the current districts.
Posted by: Geoff | March 29, 2011 at 05:26 PM
GOHH -- I can see Roscoe's new slogan: From Ridgeway to Rosslyn....
Posted by: Ghost of John Dalton | March 29, 2011 at 05:34 PM
The House districts are just as screwy as the Senate ones.
Posted by: NotJohnSMosby | March 29, 2011 at 05:35 PM
Can people cut and paste the precinct lists here? I'm only getting bits and pieces so far.
Posted by: Not Horatio Alger | March 29, 2011 at 05:37 PM
It does keep crashing. Looks like the drew Norment out of Williamsburg and gave it to John Miller and Norment district now includes the tip of the Northern Neck. I'm sure he's going to be real happy about this.
Posted by: Steve Vaughan | March 29, 2011 at 05:44 PM
Well, it looks like Ward Armstrong's 10th HoD and Paula Miller's 87th are heading to Loudoun. Clarence Phillips gets nuked and is thrown in to Prince William and Stafford, all the way to the Occoquon. So, they will move three House seats north, killing Dem seats in Southside, Southwest and Tidewater.
Locally, Comstock, Albo and Hugo are made more Republican, Tom Rust gets rid of some Dem precincts but isn't much better off, nor is LeMunyon. Bulova's district goes all the way to Centreville now. All the other Dem HoD seats within Fairfax/Arlington/Alexandria look about the same. They reshaped Plum's a bit, and of course the 35th, moving east, which only makes it slightly more Dem.
Posted by: NotJohnSMosby | March 29, 2011 at 05:49 PM
is the house map up?
Posted by: nodigity | March 29, 2011 at 06:00 PM
Wait til you see the 10th District of House of Delegates! Leesburg, south to rt50, then west to......
wait for it.......
Stephens City!!! (Frederick County!)
Posted by: getabetterserver | March 29, 2011 at 06:02 PM
Well, if we're going to give up the 10th HD, is there any chance we can give up the person in it?
Posted by: Samuel Gilleran | March 29, 2011 at 06:06 PM
Everything but the Congressional is up, I guess they didn't file that today. Two Senate plans - Howell and Watkins, which you can ignore - and one House plan. I guess the Dems in the House didn't even bother to make a plan.
Posted by: NotJohnSMosby | March 29, 2011 at 06:06 PM
Yep…
Site takes forever to try to load then an error.
I suppose there is more interest than many thought…
Posted by: change | March 29, 2011 at 06:08 PM
Well, they should have made large PDFs of each plan, and posted them as such. As is, everyone is trying to use the interactive map system, and it's killing the servers.
Posted by: NotJohnSMosby | March 29, 2011 at 06:13 PM
#ROLLOUTFAIL
Posted by: Michael | March 29, 2011 at 06:19 PM
NJM- Yeah. A minute ago the southern boundaries of the 1st and 3rd Senate districts disappeared.
Posted by: Steve Vaughan | March 29, 2011 at 06:29 PM
The Republicans wouldn't have to worry about Senate redistricting had the right-wing nuts not primaried their incumbents in 2007, giving seats to the Democrats.
And I am MAD AS HELL at what happens to the NORTHERN NECK!! It's MEAN!!!
Posted by: Todd Slocum | March 29, 2011 at 06:45 PM
Could this be any more frustrating to use???
Posted by: GretchenLaskas | March 29, 2011 at 06:47 PM
Ridiculous. Could someone way smarter than me just TELL me what happened to the 99th? Thanks
Posted by: Hoya Boy | March 29, 2011 at 07:23 PM
I'm looking forward to running in the 37th District this fall.
Posted by: Brian W. Schoeneman | March 29, 2011 at 07:38 PM
VPAP.org doesn't have maps, but it has two visualization tools that show how the bills would alter the partisan tendencies of each district http://tinyurl.com/4o5mch8
Posted by: David Poole - VPAP.org | March 29, 2011 at 07:52 PM
Not John, it looks like both LeMunyon (loses London Towne, picks up Vale) and Keam (loses Vale, Westbriar, Wolftrap, picks up Mosby, Stenwood) are both much safer.
Not invincible, but a lot less swingy than they were before. Plus, both of them kept most of their constituency (unlike, say, Bulova).
Posted by: Stephen Spiker | March 29, 2011 at 08:13 PM
Looks like the 99th stays exactly the same under the House plan.
Posted by: CarolineProgressive | March 29, 2011 at 08:29 PM