Redistricting Analysis

This map of the Northern Virginia Senate districts from the Democratic plan pretty much says it all.

 

 

 

 

Sigh.

Here's the basics of the two plans:

House Republicans eliminated four Democratic districts (Robin Abbott, Ward Armstrong, Paula Miller, Bud Phillips) and moved them into more GOP areas that should provide four pickups.  Additionally the open seat of Albert Pollard and the soon to be open seats of Bill Barlow and Joe Johnson (likely this cycle or next) were kept in strongly GOP.  That's a pickup of 5-7 seats this year for the GOP, with seats currently held by David Bulova, Eileen Filler-Corn, Jim Shuler and Lynwood Lewis all kept competitive for open seat races or very strong GOP challengers in the future.

That puts Republicans on a base of 66 seats out of 100, with two more likely to flip to them soon- and four others they can be competitive in- for a total universe of 72 seats.

Meanwhile, I'm not even sure what to say about these Senate lines.  On paper they improve Democratic performance in some swing districts, but do so by lowering it in safer districts.  The problem with this is a lack of understanding by the Democrats of what off/off year electorates look like.  In the lowest turnout elections, Republicans can come dangerously close to Democrats even in places like Alexandria and Arlington with the right candidates, because the Democratic vote in those areas is younger and extremely unlikely to show up in off/off year elections or special elections.  Say for example in the new 30th that Libby Garvey from Arlington won the D nomination and Republicans fielded a serious candidate from Alexandria City.  If the GOP could keep Alexandria close (and they won 2 of 6 Council seats there last time, plus came within 16 votes of stealing a House seat in a special election) then the district would be a dead heat going into a handful of Dem precincts in Arlington and GOP precincts down the river in Fairfax.  In a Governor's election with higher turnout this type of district would give Democrats a solid 55-67% win no matter how bad the cycle, but in an off/off year election this could be a major problem.

District after district has a similar problem, where you can pinpoint specific GOP candidates who could win the seats.  I only saw 11 safe Democratic seats out of 40 in the Senate, when it was easily possible to start that with 16 or 17 safe seats with the same number of swing seats in the middle.

Given how close the margin of error is here for success, I don't think Democrats can hold the Senate under these lines this November, and this alignment of precincts has absolutely zero chance of holding for the entire 10 year cycle (2011, 2015, 2019) it was drawn for.

A GOP lock on the House, and the Democratic Senate imploding itself.  I'm at a loss for words.

Comments

[DCCyclone]

Serious question, what would you have done to make the state Senate safer for Dems?

It goes without saying that marginal seats have to be bolstered by taking Democrats from safer seats. If things are so dicey that splitting up a liberal place like Alexandria jeopardizes seats in liberal Alexandria, then there's no such thing as a good map for us, is there?

As far as I'm concerned maximizing Democrats' ability to hold the state Senate is the top priority. So what you would have done to accomplish that? Again, serious question.

[Lloyd the Idiot]

I understand that Dems, as the party in power, have the privilege of controlling the redistricting to their advantage. I'm okay with that, as the time will come when the roles are reversed.

However, that Howell map is an abomination. One district runs from south Arlington and snakes around all the way up into Sterling in Loudoun County. That's just one example.

pathetic.

[Joe]

You can criticize the critic, but it doesn't diminish the validity of their argument.

The Senate map displays a far more superficial understanding of demographics and voter data than the House map, assuming both were sliced to maximize benefit for the controlling party while still remaining valid. NLS is right to call it what it is.

[DCCyclone]

Joe, what are you talking about?

I asked Ben a serious question, I want to know what he would do differently.

I am, indeed, skeptical of his Herring example, because to me her narrow escape in the special just shows that even very safe seats can be lost under peculiar circumstances. But that doesn't make the seat less safe.

But my skepticism about that example aside, what makes the state Senate safer for Dems than what they did? Or, give me examples of the 5 or so seats Ben thinks could have been safer while still keeping a bunch of other seats equally winnable as under the new proposed map?

Yes we have off-year state legislative elections, that makes it tough, but those districts with low-turnout Dems, whether they're young or some other low-turnout demographic, have to be put somewhere.

[ValerieInRke]

Well Sen. Ralph Smith is in with Newman. Smith said he'd move and challenge Edwards.

[SE VA MWC Alum]

Ben, could you post your map with 16-17 safe D seats and as many swing seats.

[GretchenLaskas]

Well, taking Bonnie Brae (my precinct) away from David Bulova to push him further into Centreville is a blow to him. But it should help Eileen Filler-Corn's chances quite nicely.

[not a virginia state senator]

Ok Ben since you are the expert...draw a better Senate Map

[Brian W. Schoeneman]

Gretchen, I'm sorry you won't have to make the tough choice between Bulova and me!

[Pete]

Who died and named Ben Tribbett as the "know-it-all" of Virginia politics and redistricting?

[NotCatherineCrabill]

I gotta tell you... That Howell plan is one of the biggest pieces of crap I've ever seen.

How about those compact, continguous districts with a community of interest?

Like District 3, which starts in the lower Northern Neck, meanders through Gloucester, then splits in two different directions at the Peninsula, with one branch wandering into Poquoson and Hampton and the other wriggling around James City, across the river to Isle of Wight, then sliding into western Suffolk.

District 20: The Galax to Halifax connection. If there's an "ax" on the end, they must have a community of interest (amazing Fairfax didn't make it in!).

District 15: All around Southside, avoiding Halifax.

Yikes.

[NotJohnSMosby]

Bulova's seat is as safe as it was. Those Centreville areas he's picking up are fairly Democratic. In comparison to 2009 voter percentage for Taliban Bob, it went from 52.8% to 53.4%. Not that much of a difference. Filler-Corn will go from 54.7% down to 53.1%, which definitely helps her.

Everyone should check out the scatter-points on VPAP. Very good stuff, you can break it down per district.

As for Ben's worries about Arlington and Alexandria become hotbeds of Republican activity, while I don't agree with the way they move around the 31st and 32nd, it does unpack the Democratic districts a little bit. The 30th gets redder - using VPAPs numbers, from a whopping 36.9% for Bob to a scary 41%. The 31st is even more of a move, from 34.7% to 44%. Still, fairly safe Dem districts and those numbers are the worst-case Deeds Disaster performance numbers for Republicans. The 30th and 31st aren't as massively blue as they were, but unlocking them helps out Mark Herring, George Barker, Dave Marsden.

I think Ben's just upset that Arlington is split 3 ways. Over on Blue Virginia there was a heated argument a few weeks ago where the Arlington guys were crying over the thought that Arlington and Alexandria may have to pitch in and help out the districts further out by taking on some Republican areas. Hey, it's called taking one for the team.

If an election comes and Arlington and Alexandria are either so apathetic no one votes or the vote Republican, the state will be lost cause already.

This will just mean that the Arlington and Alexandria committees will have to work hard on the state campaigns from now on. The districts are safe but no longer invincible and to be honest, Alexandria Dems need to get their act together. They were horrible with the C. Herring special election where they didn't even organize anything for the election, and they were lazy during those city elections where the Republicans only put two candidates on the ballot and only voted for those two and undervoted for the other seats. Next time, but exactly the number of Dems on the ballot for the number of seats and stop treating elections like guaranteed Democratic victories for all candidates.

[Brian W. Schoeneman]

NJSM, Bulova's seat isn't as safe as it was. Most important to him, only three of the precincts are in the current Braddock magisterial district. He gets my home precinct, a couple of average Republican precincts and pieces of two Democratic strongholds. Almost half of the district, if not more than half, is new territory he hasn't represented.

It's going to be a fairly even match between the two of us and I'm looking forward to it.

[NotJohnSMosby]

As the presumed Republican candidate you need to think that way, but when you lose by 15 points or more on election day, don't be surprised. Only a Republican would that that a neophyte blogger taking on an incumbent Dem in a Dem+ district is an even match.

I guess you think Spike Williams against Sharon Bulova is an even match too?

[CarolineProgressive]

Two quick points for Richmond on the Senate map: Don McEachin takes Ashland? Wow. Also, loving the new Parham/Chippenham 8th District. It's an ugly shaped thing, but it will make a lot of folks happy.

[NotWarriorBob]

The 3rd district probably snakes into Western Suffolk to shaft Delegate Chris Jones, the creator of the house plan. He lives in one of the two precincts up there and was aiming for 14th Senate seat when Quayle retires.

[martinlomasney]

so breitbart, postponing the bar exam until February '12?

[Brian W. Schoeneman]

NJSM, being an incumbent in a district where almost half the voters don't know you is not really an advantage. And while I expect to hear the "neophyte" nonsense, I think you'll be the one surprised on election night.

But that's what campaigns are for, and this one is going to be one of the very few to watch in Fairfax this year.

[tmtfairfax]

Sharon Bulova is carrying water for the Tysons landowners and fighting the 75-25 landowner-taxpayer split that both the McLean Citizens Association and the Reston Citizens Association have endorsed for paying the $2 billion infrastructure bill for Tysons. She lost Dranesville in the special election and raising taxes for everyone in Fairfax County to please the Tysons crowd will hurt her.

Janet Howell's map is terrible. No one in McLean-Great Falls wants to be represented by anyone living in Arlington County -- be he/she a Democrat or a Republican. We want people focused just on Fairfax County needs.

[DCCyclone]

NotJohnSSMosby,
Thanks for well-written answers to Ben's and others' commentary.

I still say to Ben regarding his claim that 16-17 safe Dem state Senate districts could have been drawn while still keeping plenty enough very winnable swing seats: SHOW YOUR WORK. Seriously, I would like to see it. If it's legit, and it's not a dummymander that could never pass, then you need to present it to pols whose ears you have and publicize it everywhere you can.

[DCCyclone]

tmtfairfax,
I'm in the proposed new SD-31, and I'm fine with being represented by an Arlington Democrat. I'm quite confident the same goes for Dems across McLean and Great Falls. It just takes an honest effort at campaigning here.

Arlington is 58% of the voters in proposed SD-31, so it doesn't take many votes from Fairfax County to put a Democrat over the top.

[NotJohnSMosby]

DCC, I'm actually becoming comfortable with the Senate plan. When I first saw it - wow, like I posted in the other thread. It was shocking changes. But, if you look at the 9 seats that have some or a lot in Fairfax, they're actually better districts than right now. The 30th and 31st are unpacked. Incumbent districts that could use a few percentage points of additional Democratic voters got it. Is it a plan to win 30 Senate seats? Not at all, but I think it's one that keeps a Dem majority and puts a few more seats in play.

Lets face it, with the current map, the future was a 20-20 split, with Puckett's district going Republican as soon as he retires and probably Colgan's too. Now, Puckett is still in harm's way, but the 10 NoVA Dem seats are fairly well protected and the new ones are winnable. It is different and weird looking - lots of crooked lines - but I think it's one that can hold the Dem majority and if demographics hold, can pick us up a few seats.

The House plan, I just don't know what the Republicans are thinking. The state is not 70% Republican, so building a House map that tries to win 70% of the seats can come back to haunt them - just like in 2003. In a strong Dem year - like 03/05/07 - they could quickly lose 8-12 of those seats. Not a big deal, they will still be in the majority for a long time, but seriously, what can they do with 70 seats that they can't do with 58? I would have been much more defensive, which in many ways the Senate map will be.

[Not Horatio Alger]

Ben works for Chap, no? Doubt he will be releasing anything that might tip Chap's hand in this.

[Brian W. Schoeneman]

Martin, nope. I am going to take it in July. I was able to handle law school while dealing with my moms debilitating illness, getting married, having a kid, working two jobs full time, doing law review, getting my comment published and still be on track to graduate magna cum laude. I can campaign and take the bar at the same time.

[DCCyclone]

Not Horatio Alger,
If Ben has a real plan that is actually stronger for state Senate Dems than the released one, I don't care how or when it's released, or through whom, as long as it's released when appropriate to maximum effect.

But I'm skeptical there is such a plan, at least one that could pass. Ben complains about the crazy district lines, but still says Dems could've created an even greater advantage. If Dems could've created better districts with less crazy lines, they would've come up with that. Today's technology is amazing and plenty of amateurs are drawing credible maps, so for me to believe the state Senate Dems failed to take full advantage of what can be done, I'll have to see it to believe it.

[martinlomasney]

breitbart

Very, very bad idea

toughest exam anyone will ever take. Primary's not 'til august.

Take the bar review and pass the first time.

Elective office comes and goes.

Your ticket lasts a lifetime.

[This Map Sucks]

NLS, what you should note (and what people like DCCyclone apparently haven't figured out) is how many of these district lines got fucked so Saslaw could pick primary winners. From what I can see already he gutted Mt. Vernon to stop Surovell from running for Puller (and gerrymandered in Sickles in Lee, that was a nice touch), gerrymandered Stevens Miller out of the new Senate seat in Loudoun, created a new seat in Richmond (for someone specifically I bet), etc. This isn't about best map, it is about what is best for Saslaw.

[Let's Be Free]

As for the Senate seats, this will be so much fun -- watching Arlington annointed Democratic candidates and their anti-commuter, anti-roads, anti-outside the Beltway agenda, trying to get any votes at all outside the Beltway.

[Glen Tomkins]

I don't get the math.

How does your notional plan get more safe D seats (which can only be done by concentrating more D voters into those districts), while also leaving the same number of swing seats in the middle (which involves leaving more D voters in swing districts, rather than concentrating them in safe D districts)?

Are you saying that the 11 safe seats in the Saslaw plan are too safe? That could be true. If it is, please say so. If it isn't true, how does the math work on your claim?

[Brian W. Schoeneman]

Martin, that's one of the good parts. I don't have a primary opponent right now. If that changes, we'll have to look at how that'll impact me down the road.

In any event, I can't take the February bar as I'll be in the middle of session. :)

[Kris Amundson]

Brian - I have no particular dog in this fight. But I did watch as my daughter took the bar last summer. And I have campaigned, plenty. Not possible - not even remotely possible - to do both.

[Mr. Jefferson]

Look at all of these people trying to push B-Schoen outta the race.

[Brian W. Schoeneman]

People told me it wasn't going to be possible to go to law school while working full time.

They told me getting married during law school was a bad idea.

They told me I'd be lucky not to flunk out of school as a new dad.

Yet, here I am, about to graduate in 57 days #3 in my class.

I've made a pretty good career so far in doing the impossible. I recognize that the bar exam is tough, and I am not taking it for granted. But there are things more important than the bar, and this is one of them.

Unlike some of my colleagues, I don't need a bar card to keep my day job. It's a plus, not a requirement.

But I appreciate everyone's concern.

[Samuel Gilleran]

You get 'em, Brian.

[W&M Lawyer]

Brian -- take BarBri, at least, but yes, you can campaign and take the bar -- if you have a good campaign team. You will need to curtail personal campaigning for about two weeks, starting around July 4. No other way around it, even for a notorious cram artist like myself. Unfortunately, failing the bar will be used against you by your political opponents. So make sure you don't.

[Mr. Bubbles]

listen to kris amundson, brian. She knows a lot about when to throw in the towel because things are too difficult.

[GretchenLaskas]

As a good Dem, I should be telling Brian to load up on even MORE responsibilities! :)

But as the wife of someone who also took the bar exam with more real life going on than most people thought possible and certainly unwise, I've learned never to underestimate people. I have little doubt that Brian will do just fine. (More's the pity, mutters the Democrat side of her brain!!!!)

[Riley]

Bar is end of July. Brian can do this. Agreed BARBRI is best. I considered doing both back in '94, but decided against it and took two bars in three days instead. Just treat campaigning like studying for a second bar.

[Brian W. Schoeneman]

BarBri starts the week of graduation. And I've got a bar prep class I'm taking right now as well, and I took VA Practice and Procedure last year.

It's going to be tough, but I wouldn't know what to do with myself if I wasn't overstressed.

[Mr. Bubbles]

wow brian! You do all that and yet still find the time to plagiarize a WaPo article? You must be superman!

[Brian W. Schoeneman]

What can I say - I'm pure awesome.

[Mr. Bubbles]

that's why I'm doing the unthinkable and endorsing you over bulova

[Geoff]

Excellent overreaction NLS. I think this map could have done more to protect incumbents (e.g. Roscoe Reynolds' district) but generally, I think it's pretty solid. Sure, some of the districts have gone from Safe Dem to Likely Dem but at the same time, we have a shot at winning the new 8th (likely I would say) and the 7th (more of a toss-up). This gives the Dems a chance of picking up two seats, which is about as well as you could do with this map. Considering that Phil Puckett's district will likely go GOP the moment he retires, which could be this decade, better to have a shot at some new districts. Moreover, any continued demographic shifts in NoVA will benefit Dems.

[Churchlanddem]

One way to make the best out of losing some of the house seats would be to draft Paula Miller to run against Scott Rigell in the 2nd congressional district.
She would be a strong candidate and her current district would be a natural jumping off point to run for that office (Thelma represented that house of delegates district before she was elected to congress)
just an idea.

[NotJohnSMosby]

To be honest, losing House seats doesn't really hurt Dems. We're not close to taking the House, not after the Deeds Disaster. I think the Republicans would be better to lock in 55-60 seats instead of trying to once again go for 2/3rds - which doesn't help you any in the House. We wouldn't take the House regardless, and again, there's nothing they can do with 70 seats that they can't do with 55. But, bottom line, the House isn't in play at this point and for the foreseeable future so let the Republicans stretch themselves thin, just like in 2001.

[Robin Abbott]

Brian, if you are hell bent on taking the bar exam in July, look into MicroMash. It is a great program and you can manipulate your time a little better than having to attend the actual BarBri Course. I used MicroMash and passed the first time as did my husband. The multi-state is all computerized and you can take it with you everywhere on your laptop to maximize your time. Good luck.

[tmtfairfax]

DCCyclone Most residents of McLean care more about results than political labels. I saw the poll of the Board of the McLean Citizens Association has so far unanimous opposition to the Howell plan. The Board has a good mix of Democrats, Republicans and Independents. No one likes being tied to Arlington County because they don't have common interests or concerns with McLean.

[NotJohnSMosby]

Does anyone have common interests with McLean? McLean is, by far, the most provincial area of Fairfax. Ask the Drainsville FCDC members from McLean where Drainsville/Herndon is and they'll look at you funny. Actually, some of the neighborhoods up on Kirby Road and nearby have a lot more in common with North Arlington than they do anything in greater Fairfax County.

[change]

NJSM.
Don’t get me wrong, I LOVE divided government because we have seen what “one party rule” gives us; (particularly in the last few years of D’s “total control” in Washington).
Therefore I hope the senate stays in Democrat control.
But… I am not sure I understand your “stretch themselves thin” comment...
Haven’t the R’s controlled the house since last redistricting?

If the senate plan is successful in keeping a divided government in VA, in spite of our peace prize winning turned war mongering democrat president (who is successfully bringing us the worst aspects the Iraq war, Iran/contra, and Nixonian secretiveness, on his watch), then I believe Howell et al.. will have done an admirable job under EXTREME circumstances.

A bit off subject, but pertinent to our elections and surely humorous, is the newest revelation that Obama signed a “secret order” for covert action in Libya within hours of receiving the “sunshine” award for open government.

This president has had every opportunity to “walk his talk” on so many issues but seems to stumble at every step.
These actions will not help our senate keep control as we are so close to Washington politics.

[DCCyclone]

tmtfairfax,
NotJohnMosby's reponse to your comment is great, and beyond that I'll add that frankly most rank-and-file voters, even in the kind of low-turnout off-year elections Virginia has, don't care about state legislative district boundaries. If an Arlington Democrat goes door-to-door in my McLean neighborhood and makes his/her case and listens to voter concerns, that's the same to the average voter as if the Democrat is from McLean.

Now, if an Arlington Democrat wins a primary and ignores Fairfax and Loudoun, that's a different story, but it's no different than a McLean Democrat ignoring Great Falls and Herndon under the current lines. In reality, in most cases, having to represent an area teaches a local politician to pay attention to that area.

[Not Larry Sabato]

Cyclone,

I don't know why you think these are such trivial issues, but I can assure you that if you speak with your Supervisor in McLean or your candidate for the House of Delegates they will tell you that their ticket-mates and how they do in their areas is hardly as trivial to them.

[NotJohnSMosby]

Change, if you think Republicans trying to get 70% of the HoD seats in a state that is definitely not 70% Republican isn't stretching yourself thin, then nothing is. Republicans could have drawn lines to give them 60 solid districts in 2001. They went for more, and for one cycle did actually have 66, counting the two independents who caucus with them. Then, that advantage went from 66-34 to, what, 55-45 over six years and three elections, right up until Deeds screwed the pooch and basically lost 5 seats for Dems, plus a pickup or two that would have happened with a better - though still losing - candidate.

Now, do they want to try and do the same thing again 10 years later? Or just lock in 60 votes for pretty much the next 10 years? That's the point, and your comments about Obama have zero relevance by the way.

[DCCyclone]

Ben,
I don't doubt that Foust and Danner care very much about their ticket-mates' performance in Fairfax County.

But I doubt the Senate Dems' proposed SD-31 causes any serious problem with either an Arlington Democrat's ability to do well enough there not to be a liability for Foust or Danner or anyone else in McLean, or to McLean's ability to have its concerns heard and addressed by whoever wins the seat.

[Not Larry Sabato]

Cyclone, Let me give you an example of why this is a problem in your district.

Let's grab a random issue, the widening of 66. Arlington is very opposed to this, additional traffic, noise, pollution, etc. Candidates over here run on this issue of trying to stop this project.

In Great Falls and the Loudoun precincts in this district, many people commute to DC and use 66, and are stuck in traffic on it daily, and widening it would be very popular.

In a Democratic primary where the electorate tilts heavier to the Dem areas (i.e. Arlington) candidates would be tempted to oppose widening 66 to get votes.

In the general election, that would be used against them in Great Falls and Loudoun.

Might they win anyway? Yes. But if they lose those areas, people who don't have parts of Arlington to save them (Supervisor, Delegate, etc.) would be hurt by the top of their ticket underperforming in their areas.

This is something I've seen before in Fairfax races when candidates have strong regional bases head to head, and it will be much worse with districts like this which are combined with areas that don't just have *uncommon* interests, but often have *opposing* interests.

[wow]

OMG you are so right Ben... look at the 36th - safe dem now - moves it into majority prince william - wtf?

[NotJohnSMosby]

The 36th actually gets a little more Democratic with the new lines. Per VPAP, in 2009 the 36th went 49.4% for Taliban Bob. The new district lines would be 49%. Not a major change, but it's about as safe as it was.

[NotCatherineCrabill]

Kudos to retiring Del. Albert C. Pollard, Jr. (D-Lancaster), putting the interests of his constituents over the rank partisanship of Janet Howell et al...

From a press release Pollard sent to the P&E committees:

"Breaking up the Northern Neck into multiple legislative or congressional districts is terrible public policy. I will vigorously fight the Senate redistricting plan and any other plan which splits our distinct community of interest."

[DCCyclone]

Ben, as I replied to this same argument you made on 66 as an example in another blog, I don't buy the coattails argument here. Ticket-splitting is normal, and to most voters one local race isn't more important than another. So their votes in a state Senate race are not going to drive their votes in Delegate or County Supervisor races. Coattails aren't the exception rather than the rule even with big items on the ballot like Governor or President, a reality understandably forgotten after several consecutive state and federal wave cycles. But a state Senate race producing coattails for Delegate? I don't think so.

[DCCyclone]

Ugh, my previous comment I meant coattails ARE the exception rather than the rule...need to take time to proofread.

[Edthemanva]

the Senate plan looks like it was drawn by a drunk Barney,,,really splitting voting precincts. It is bad enough splitting apart communities,,but now voting precincts. I am in the new 30th while homes/voters across the street in the same voting precinct are in the 36th. Looking through the maps there are ALOT of split voting precints....Shame on Sen. JH

[Smh]

@2:19 What an egomaniac! I guess we found this year's Steve Hunt, "race with national implications." Good luck getting voluteers and donors.

[Steve Vaughan]

Neither of the redistricting plans is all that bad, as redistricting goes..it's always the thing that makes legislators look most slimy.

Looks like the House tried to draw themselves a +4 plan and the Senate went for +2.

So the House plan is less ambitious than the 2001 plan and the Senate is about the same as the 2001 Senate redistricting plan Republicans drew.

We'll see how well that works out.

Some of the Senate's districts are a little ugly.

[Brian W. Schoeneman]

SMH, Mr. Bubbles and I were sharing a joke. Relax.

[Mr. Jefferson]

OUTRAGE!!! People running for office are NOT allowed to joke!

EVER!

[Steve Vaughan]

Well, he's got you there Brian.

[SatirclAlx]

Screw worrying about the bar exam. You can take it over and over again so it doesn't matter if you fail the first time. Just do your best and if you don't pass, consider it a practice run for February. Also, in some states, you can take two bars - like State 1 on Tuesday, the multistate on Wednesday, and State 2 on Thursday. That gives you two chances. In my day, everyone gamed it that way. People took PA because if you got a certain score on the multistate, they didn't read the essays. IL was also notoriously easy to pass, but I don't know if that is still the case. I don't know if VA allows this but I took NY and MA in 1988 and then waived into DC. Don't sweat it.

[NotJohnSMosby]

The House plan has a lot of split precincts. I believe that most of those will get cleaned up for the final bill. Once they negotiate the variance percentages, where one Senate district can have 205,000 people and another 195,000 (or whatever the maximum allowable variance ends up) those split precincts will go away as the entire precinct goes to one district or the other.

No one wants split precincts as they're operational nightmares for the Election Board, voters and the party folks working the polls.

[tmtfairfax]

A live example of a potential conflict for a state representative whose district covers both Fairfax and Arlington Counties. The arrival of the Silver Line and the reconfiguration of the Blue and Orange Lines will have the impact of providing significant improvement to rail service between East Falls Church and Rosslyn. Given this change, the current rail funding agreement should be changed to reflect the greater service to Arlington residents and businesses. For example, costs could be allocated based on the number of trains and not just mileage and stations.

This change will be pushed in the near future by Fairfax County and quite possibly opposed by Arlington County. It has been the practice of communities near Tysons to enlist the support of our state representatives as well as local officials in these type of issues. We would expect Howell, Petersen, Comstock, Keam, and Scott, for example, to fight for this change. And based on past experience, they would do so.

What happens to a senator or delegate who represents both counties? What happens to the residents of the two counties? Giving an elected official a pass is not in the cards. It's a lose, lose, lose situation.

[NotJohnSMosby]

Are you guys pretending that the 31st doesn't have a section of Fairfax County right now?

You guys make it sound like they're trying to merge Arlington in with Wise County or something.

[DCCyclone]

NotJohnMosby,
Good point, SD-31 goes into Bailey's Crossroads, Seven Corners, and Falls Church already!

[Not Larry Sabato]

Yes, SD-31 goes along the Orange line now out through Falls Church with communities around east/west falls church metros very similar to Arlington.

[Steve Vaughan]

I'm certainly not an expert on Northern Virginia districts, but it looks like the effect here is just to unpack some of the super Dem majority districts in an effort to make some of the less blue districts safer for Dem incumbents. I'm not sure why Dems would have a problem with that.

[vbtexan]

Steve,

I have no problem with the Senate map. John Miller should be fine swapping lower york for upper york and picking up wmsbg. Northam got shored up a bit and the Dems have a shot at the new 7th district seat in Virginia Beach though McWaters would probably be favored.

The house GOP drew the districts the way I figured they would. Robin Abbott has a shot but that's a tough race in a off-off year. Stolle shed his bad boxes for marginal areas of Ocean View Norfolk and picked up the heavy GOP Kings Grant area. Villaneuava now probably has a 60% lock district.

[NotJohnSMosby]

Steve, that's been what I've tried to understand since the maps were released. Some people would prefer to have a few rock solid, guaranteed Democratic seats and to leave others vulnerable. I would prefer to shore up the vulnerable seats while making the rock sold seats only very strong. Maybe even create a few swing districts in there too.

[GretchenLaskas]

I completely understand why the Arlington folks are upset. There are a lot of issues floating around out there that are extremely local, and pretty divisive. They may not be something that comes up in the state houses, but at this point, they can usually rely upon their elected officials to be an official voice for their side of the issues, whether that person has an actual vote or not.

Plus, they have done everything "right" from any reasonable perspective. They have created a way of living that doesn't look very much like the rest of Virginia, but which many Virginians enjoy, either by living there, working there, or going there to spend their evenings. They work hard to create grassroots movements and citizen based initiatives. We all could learn a lot from Arlington.

So I understand that they feel they are being punished.

But the honest truth is that we need a little help out here in the hinterlands, at least through the next ten years. At that point, I think areas such as Northern VA will look so unlike much of rural Virginia that disagreements between McLean and Rosslyn will look tiny by contrast. And yes, I'm aware that we say that now, but we all recognize the truly massive change that has taken place, and do we really think that Northern VA is going to become less populous while rural VA becomes moreso?

[Loudoun Lady]

"So I understand that they feel they are being punished."

Are you kidding me, no one is being punished more that the Loudoun County residents stuck in a district with Arlington democrats.

[NotJohnSMosby]

Oh my god, the white people in Potomac Falls have already fled the inner suburbs to get away from those people, where will they go now!!!!

Hey, I'll start a fund to rent moving vans and pay for gas if they want to move to West Virginia.

[tmtfairfax]

How would this one come out? Arlington County maintains its own roads; Fairfax County doesn't. Arlington gets money from the State to help fund the work. VDOT gets the money to do the work in Fairfax. Fairfax would like to get more money for VDOT and probably wouldn't mind seeing Alrington's cut if push came to shove, and vice versa. What happens if a bill to make this formula change goes before the Senate? Someone is screwed.

Ditto for widening I-66 inside the Beltway. Probably most Arlington residents would oppose this, but I know most McLean residents wholeheartedly support this. What if the issue comes up in a bill before the Senate? Who gets the shaft?

There are real differences in needs and desires between the two counties that don't have anything to do with Rs and Ds. Both communities should have a right to full representation in the Senate and the House.

[GretchenLaskas]

LL -- and given that you are a Republican from Loudon, that's the other side of the coin from the Democrats in Arlington.

The question is, would enough Republicans such as yourself be open to modifications in the Delegate plan (which clearly benefits Republicans) in order to get some modifications in the Senate plan (which benefits Democrats?)

[change]

Gretch,

You are making the mistake of looking at the “big picture”.

The house could care less what the senate problems are and vice versa (and neither cares much what the voters think.)
The best thing that could happen is that we could get out from under the federal VRA (thereby taking out arbitrary limits) and get these folks to LEGISLATE that the next redistricting plan must be done by computer models accounting only for population and compactness.

The only problem is by 2021 computers might be partisan 

[Steve Vaughan]

Change-I'm in total agreement with you that the pols, both Republicans and Democrats, couldn't care less what the public thinks about redistricting. Nor is their really any reason they should. They know that "process" issues like this "don't move one vote." No party has ever been punished for a partisan redistricting.

[GretchenLaskas]

=No party has ever been punished for a partisan redistricting.=

And this is the bottom line. The number of people who even know who their delegate or state senator is puts them light years ahead of most voters. Also, here in northern VA, the turnover rates may have slowed as the housing market has slowed, but this is still a fairly transient culture.

[Brian W. Schoeneman]

I think it's a stretch to say that no party has ever been punished. It's less about punishment, and more about the fact that most of the worst gerrymanders were done by parties who could see the handwriting on the wall that their majority was on the way out. And the gerrymanders rarely saved them - even in the immediate cycle following the enactment.

I doubt the Democrats will be punished for the gerrymander, but in the end, it's not going to save them either.

[DCCyclone]

Gretchen,
Your last comment is spot-on, voters don't care about redistricting. I don't buy coattail arguments about ticketmates in local races. Voters just aren't that aware.

Regarding your question to Loudoun Lady, I THINK she's a Republican, in which case of course the answer is YES she and all other GOPers would gladly sacrifice up to a half-dozen House seats in exchange for 2 or 3 Senate seats. Controlling the chamber is everything. That's the whole point here for us. the House GOPers arguably are giving us a gift by surrendering a Democratic Senate gerrymander, since any "fair" plan that's been offered or that a judge is going to draw is almost certain to cost us enough Senate seats to give up the chamber, but not cost the GOP the dozen House seats necessary to give us that chamber.

[change]

DCC,
I think we are in agreement that the best outcome is that we keep a divided government.
You are correct that the house is not in jeopardy, but if the senate goes we find ourselves in the same situation that we had in DC for many years where one party held all power and abused it to the detriment of the citizenry.

I say gerrymander to the extent necessary to maintain a divided government.

[GOPHokie]

Ben is free to correct me on this, but I think the point here with Senate districts is that they open up a possibility of a GOP takeover if they pick the right candidate or if the dems pick the wrong one.
In 2001, the 3 GOP Fairfax senate seats were drawn to get solid GOP precincts in the west and reach their tentacles near or inside the beltway where the dems were stronger. In an ideal GOP world, they would have run candidates from the marginal areas like Burke in the 37th and Springfield in the 39th (the 34th just turned too hard on based on Bush's weakness in 2007). Instead, the GOP had candidates in Cooch from Centreville and O'Brien in Clifton that made themselves susceptible to a dem from the central portion of the district that ended up resulting in a win.
By the dems stringing out these districts, if the GOP ran someone from the middle or east end of the districts, they would have a shot at winning in a strong GOP year.
You can't look at McDonnell or Obama numbers to get this, look more at the best GOP performance in any race ever in an area to show the vulnerabilities.

[DCCyclone]

GOPHokie,
That might be Ben's argument, but it's a poor one. Right now that scenario is MORE likely to happen in some Dem-held districts than under the proposed Dem map. State Senate Dems have a few seats in conservative districts that are almost certain to go as soon as the incumbent retires, which likely will happen very soon in a couple cases, and then the state Senate is gone.

So shoring up those districts, and a few other purple ones, requires splitting up dark blue Democratic vote sinks.

What the state Senate Dems have done is redistricting 101. You bolstThe prier yourself by spreading your voters a little more thin and packing opposing party's voters a little more tightly. You go too far, and it backfires as Ben is suggesting. But there's no reasonable argument that state Senate Dems have gone too far. Just look at the Obama and Deeds performances for baselines, and that's obvious. And yes, those ARE the appropriate baselines, you just adjust for the reality that Obama overperformed and Deeds badly underperformed for a "normal" Democrat.

Several people on Blue Virginia and Swing State Project have gone through the proposed map and established that it's a good map. Ben has offered no counterargument. Citing Charnielle Herring is nonsense, any time that district is jeopardized is a wave election where we have bigger things to worry about than the boundaries.

[tmtfairfax]

Senator Howell and Delegate Cole held a hearing on redistricting at the Fairfax County Government Center. Strong criticism for plans that snake trough communities of interest and that fail to keep them together. Most speakers oppose legislators selecting their constituents.

[Not Larry Sabato]

tmt, I was there, sorry I didn't meet you.

Cyclone- Going to do a post on the first one I have a problem with today.

[NotCatherineCrabill]

I see Version 3.0 of Howell's Monstrosity is out...

The Northern Neck is again gratuitously split into multiple Senate districts (4 and 28).

Hey Janet, why don't you listen to Albert Pollard?

[tmtfairfax]

Another bad thing about redistricting in Virginia is the time crunch. The average resident won't have a clue until it is all over and too late. We need to move state elections to even years like most of the rest of the country.

[red bottoms]

Those are super cute. I like you on Facebook.