Senator-Elect Jeff Frederick Gives GOP Control of Senate

Are you ready for that headline in November of this year?

You might want to be.

I've been highly critical of the awful Senate redistricting plan proposed by majority Democrats.  Now that I've had a little more time to dive into the districts one by one I would like to change what I said before.

It's even worse than I thought.

Let me give you one example, and I will try to bring you some more examples in the next few days.

When Senator Joe Gartlan retired in 1999, the 36th district had an open seat contest that then-Delegate Toddy Puller won by a 4% margin over Dan Rinzel.  At that time, the 36th district was entirely in Fairfax County, taking in basically what is now the Lee and Mt. Vernon magisterial districts.  When it came time to draw the new districts, Republicans had two objectives- first the population demanded a new Senate seat in Northern Virginia, and they wanted to make Chuck Colgan's district far more Republican in Prince William so they could win it when he retired in 2003 (hahaha).  This meant pulling Colgan out of Democratic precincts in southern Prince William.  Republicans tore off the low turnout performing Dem areas in Lee District to run all the way out to Clifton and into PWC for a district that then-Delegate Jay O'Brien could win.  With all that population gone, they were able to run Toddy into the southern Prince William precincts that Colgan had taken away, giving her a very safe district.

Kind of.

You see, while southern Prince William provides big Democratic margins in federal elections, and in most Governor's elections, the off/off year elections are always a huge problem with voter turnout.  Older (mostly white) GOP voters turn out in these local election cycles in force.  Toddy might have faced some challenges here with a strong Prince William challenger.  But she ended up never having a problem.  These Senate lines only lasted two cycles- the first of which (2003) Toddy drew an opponent from Fairfax County and she ran unopposed in 2007 after School Board member Julie Lucas declined to run for the GOP in Prince William.

Despite those problems, in this redistricting, Democrats have cut even more Fairfax from Puller's district, and stretched the district all the way into Stafford. 

Now let me show you why this is a problem.

For Prince William, I am going to use 2007 numbers.  Keep in mind, 2007 was a wave Democratic year nationally, and was far better for Prince William Democrats than 2003 when Sean Connaugton led an epic sweep of almost every precinct for the GOP.

Since Toddy was unopposed in 2007, I'm going to use the targeted House race between Jeff Frederick and Chris Brown as a baseline for these precincts as most of them overlap.  Keep in mind that Dems spent almost half a million dollars on the Brown race, so this was a serious operation for local Democrats that we are looking at.  Here's how the unsplit precincts in Prince William voted:

Belmont- Frederick 436, Brown 187
Dumfries- Frederick 264, Brown 243
Graham Park- Frederick 360, Brown 317
Henderson- Frederick 848, Brown 479
Montclair- Frederick 580, Brown 399
Pattie- Frederick 501, Brown 251
Potomac View- Frederick 324, Brown 198
Powell- Frederick 126, Brown 83
Quantico- Frederick 76, Brown 48
Washington Reid- Frederick 1205, Brown 724

Ouch.  Every one of these precincts voted for Jeff Frederick and many by a substantial margin.  Meanwhile there are three more unsplit Prince William precincts that didn't overlap with that race, so for those let's take a look at the Corey Stewart-Sharon Pandak race. 

Bethel- Stewart 640, Pandak 410
Chinn- Stewart 371, Pandak 244
Kilby- Stewart 208, Pandak 207

Keep in mind we are talking 2007 numbers here, in the middle of a national Democratic wave.

So let's assume for a minute that Frederick can hold his voters against Puller (who is from Fairfax County and whose ties in Prince William are far more questionable than Frederick's 2007 opponent).  That would make the Prince William total:

Jeff Frederick 5,939
Toddy Puller 3,790

Could Toddy make up this difference in Stafford and Fairfax?

Democrats added two good Stafford precincts to the 36th.  In 2007 they had a race between Carlos Del Toro, and Mark Cole for the House of Delegates, and voted as follows:

Griffs:  Del Toro 293, Cole 221
Widewater:  Del Toro 140, Cole 91

While these precincts show good population, off/off year election turnout is miserable.  But it's at least another 121 votes margin for Dems, which would pull Toddy within 2,028 votes coming into Fairfax.

The Fairfax precincts here are Toddy's base, which is why it is so bizarre that Democrats only left 8 of them unbroken and in her district.  Because Toddy is the most popular Democratic elected official in this area, I'm going to go back to her contested election in 2003 to demonstrate her likely margin here in Fairfax:

Bucknell:  Puller 631, Braunlich 278
Huntley:  Puller 572, Braunlich 364
Kirkside:  Puller 653, Braunlich 226
Sherwood:  Puller 645, Braunlich 369
Woodlawn:  Puller 570, Braunlich 265

Additionally, Toddy has these precincts that were split or she didn't have in 2003:

Franconia:  Sickles 478, Bolvin 357
Fairfield:  Amundson 594, Kennedy 266

If the Fairfax results followed these precincts, the results would be:

Toddy Puller 4,143
Jeff Frederick 2,125

So far what do we have district-wide?

Jeff Frederick 8,376
Toddy Puller 8,366

Now, there are 18 split precincts in the current plan that are harder to calculate, some favor Frederick, some favor Puller.  On the whole, I think the split precincts tend to favor Puller.  Additionally some of the areas around Lorton that Puller has in this map have grown in recent years and been more Democratic than neighboring precincts.

But wow are Democrats cutting it close, especially with a candidate that can't do door to door campaigning and a ready made GOP candidate waiting for a chance to launch a political comeback.

Comments

[kelley in virginia]

no offense Ben, but i couldn't digest all of that.

I realize that people, Rs & Ds alike, are agitated about Sen. Howell's plan.

but even though I presently have a R state Senator (Frank Ruff) & my new district will have a R state Senator (Steve Martin), the configuration is bizarre.

look at Halifax County in Sen Howell's plan. textbook gerrymandering.

any chance that it will change?

[James Young]

Give Howell credit: she's managed to put her name on a plan that pleases NO one. However, having my new neighbor Jeff Frederick as my new Senator (he lives one street over, in Henderson precinct) would be great!

[Geoff]

This is based on the notion that people will like Jeff Frederick enough to vote for him. So...that makes it suspect, even if there is an uptick of old white people voting in 2011.

[James Young]

He always did fine in his own portion of this new district, Geoff. Dismissing them as "old white people" is, however, as fine an example of patronizing Democrat racism as I've ever seen.

[DCCyclone]

James Young, LOL, you try to make up a false moral equivalence while backing a racist in Jeff Frederick who relies on racists for his support. Here's a sample of Frederick and his ilk, and this is just how they speak in public: http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1849422,00.html

There's a reason why Frederick was dumped by the state GOP, he was terrible even by their low standards.

[DCCyclone]

Toddy's district is plenty Democratic, and I'm not persauded by Ben's math here. The current SD-36 is Democratic enough that Deeds carried it, and Deeds carried very little. No Republican carried it in a state or federal race, and only in 2009 did Republicans keep it close.

So this district is prime territory for trading out some precincts to shore up more vulnerable Democrats.

And this analysis: , shows that it's still a very Democratic district.

That precinct-level analysis is nice, Ben, but it doesn't reveal a big picture.

Yes Dem turnout is in its worst cycle out of the 4-cycle routine this fall without a Governor's race or federal race on the ballot, but that's true everywhere and doesn't change the redistricting formula. The goal is not to maximize safe Dem seats, which is what you would do, but to keep at least 21 in Democratic hands through the next three state Senate cycles. And that has to include creating at least 24 that are winnable without a wave, to account for retirements and losses.

[DCCyclone]

Forgot the link in my previous comment to the specs on new proposed SD-36:

http://swingstateproject.com/diary/8618/va-st-sen-howell-districts-in-daves-app

[Manassas]

Frederick's old House district was a 64% Obama district that he had won just a year earlier (in 2007) with 59%... and he apparently is very popular in PWC, even among Democrats, African-Americans included.

[AmyFredishot]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qofcYOu7hAo

[DCCyclone]

Manassas, LOL, I'm pretty confident if Frederick ever performed OK with black voters before, he won't now! He exposed himself for what he is quite openly since the last time he was on a ballot!

[Not Larry Sabato]

Actually Cyclone, Frederick is very close friends with his replacement, Del. Luke Torian (D). Torian wouldn't lift a finger to help his ticketmates against Frederick.

I appreciate your insight into the numbers, but you are failing to understand how they apply to these more local races. I agree with you that the numbers of the districts would be great- if we were talking Congressional seats- but they are not well drawn for State Senate seats.

[vbtexan]

NLS,

What other seats do you tink the Dems will lose to let this district be the tiebreaker?

[anon]

Why would Frederick run when he's not wanted?

[truthteller]

NLS,

Anon has a good point. Frederick has been an embarrasment to the GOP and was run out of the chairmanship on rails. What makes you think anyone will want him to run for the GOP nomination?

Also people wrote Toddy off when they gave her a primarily PWC district which was an attempt to district her out in 01. The forecasts of her demise were much exaggerated. Some of the more conservative voting S Fairfax precincts were yanked from this district and the Democratic performance of this district is slightly better than in her predecessor.

And as for Luke Torian, not sure how mucb he wants to tout his friendship with Frederick, as being friends with a winger hostile to minority interests isn't going to play well in primary elections in PWC.

[Blank]

A bit of a problem with this analysis is the quality of candidate in the sample years.

For all his faults, Frederick is a great campaigner and on a paper a good candidate. In the years used as sample for the Frederick numbers the Dem. candidates and campaigns were pathetic at best. You basically had an A candidate against a C candidate in areas a generic Dem should have done much better.

Does looking at 2005 numbers when Barg was the Dem nominee change anything? She was probably the strongest opponent Frederick had in his HOD career. Just curious if that changes the dynamics any.

[Not Larry Sabato]

Yes, the Barg numbers tilt the district Democratic, but that was also a Governor's election year which makes this district more Democratic also and misses the point of what was discussed above with the differences in this area in off/off year elections versus Governor's elections.

[DCCyclone]

OK, Ben, fair enough on Torian, but Frederick's incendiary (read: racist) rhetoric toward Obama is going to hurt him with black and other nonwhite voters, and I doubt Torian's friendship helps much with ordinary voters.

Meanwhile, you still haven't produced a map that gives us a real shot at 23-24 state Senate seats as the proposed map aims to do. You can't just say pack more Democrats together in Dem-held seats to protect against unfavorable turnout models, that necessarily leaves us with fewer seats in play. The whole purpose of the exercise is to keep Democratic control of the state Senate, and the "nonpartisan" maps you tout don't improve our position on that front from what I've seen. We still are screwed as soon as a couple incumbents retire in our most vulnerable districts.

At least your argument on Puller is stronger than the Charnielle Herring argument. That's simply not valid because any year in which a district like that one is in jeopardy is a year in which the boundaries are the least of our problems.

So again, how exactly would you unpack the Democratic vote sinks to put a couple more seats in play and shore up our most vulnerable districts?

[NotJohnSMosby]

Ben, not to bash, but you really seem to be picking numbers to support your claim. Between you and Lowell, it's been a full week of hystronics over the doom that will become of the Senate. Now, we're not supposed to count 2008, 2004, or 2000 because those are Presidential years. Ok. We're not supposed to count 2002, 2006 or 2010 because those are just federal election years. Ok. You don't want to count 2001 or 2005, although everyone keeps quoting 2009 for Republican numbers. Eh, not ok. Now you seem to be advocating the use of just 2003 and 2007 numbers. Well, that 2003 was a marginal year for Dems, but 2007 was a good year. Overall, those two years point to Dem gains this year. In 2007, Jay Donahue almost knocked off Tom Rust with no budget to spend, and Dave Albo got a pass because no one ran against him. But, we picked up the Senate that year, and Janet O. lost to Cooch by only 100 votes or so.

So, what I can't get is, if you're basing part of your argument on just the 2003 and 2007 numbers, why are you so pessimistic for Dem chances? The pessimism seems to come from the 2009 elections, which shouldn't count because that was a governor year. But if it does count, then why not 2005? It's like you only want to look at years where Dems did poorly. That may give you a worst-case scenario, but is it really valid? Creigh Deeds isn't on the ballot this year to drag down Democratic turnout - and analysis shows that in 2009, the low Dem turnout was what created the route. There wasn't any crossover vote for Republicans, Democrats simply stayed home. How about the 2010 special elections, where Marsden won a Republican seat? Republicans had all of the momentum last winter, but Dems still won twice in low-turnout special elections in Republican-leaning districts.

[Not Larry Sabato]

NJSM, I agree, 2007 was a great year for Dems, which is why I think showing that Jeff Frederick could win this district in a 2007 type turnout should be especially chilling to anyone arguing this is a good plan!

[Not Larry Sabato]

To answer your question, I'm not that concerned with 2009 numbers, Governor's elections can swing around. My concern is *strong* local Republicans in NoVA have a history of running ahead of what their statewide candidates get. People seem to have forgotten some of that because of how good 2007 was for Democrats. But I still remember Dan Rinzel, Tom Bolvin, Scott Klein, Jeff Frederick, and so many others in the GOP in NoVA (including the Cooch) who ran better than they should have by the numbers.

[Lauren]

I'm from SWVA and I can tell you there are two possible races down here that could be GOP pick ups. The 38th is growing more republican rather quickly, VPAP has it listed at 65-69% Republican. There is a republican candidate running who the hardest working guy I've ever been around. Also in the 21st there may be a battle between two sitting senators. This seat is fairly even, VPAP has it ranked at 51-54% Republican. If this race materializes it would be a close one.

[DCCyclone]

Ben, I don't think it's valid to simply transpose what Frederick did in 2007 with what should be expected in 2011.

Look at those new PW precincts Toddy is inheriting, and those 2007 numbers represent what Frederick did as an incumbent against a challenger. That fact itself gave Frederick an edge. Now Puller is the incumbent, and that carries advantages even in new precincts. You concede yourself Puller is the most popular local political figure in her area, well that's worth quite a bit. Frederick can't be presumed to perform as well in those precincts this year as he did 4 years ago; most likely he'll do a little worse. Yes his having represented them in the past helps, and he might win them, but by less.

Again, your off-year off-year analysis fails on the most critical thing: provide a solution, one where vulnerable Dems are shored up, maybe one or two GOP-held seats are put in better play, and safe Dems are still reasonably safe. I don't know who you're trying to persuade, but any persuasion is going to require offering an alternative that gives state Senate Dems an advantage over the current map.

[DCCyclone]

Also, one more thing about using 2007 numbers. You point out that it was a better-than-average year for Dems, and yet some NoVA GOPers outperformed expectations.

But that just reflects the fact that in a wave election, there is not uniform swing. Some people do better than expected in pockets of the state or the country, that doesn't mean they'll always outperform the political environment--and usually they don't, as they overperform sometimes and underperform sometimes.

Gene Taylor was a vulnerable sophomore Congressman in 1994, in a very conservative Mississippi district, and he beat the odds and survived in a massive GOP wave. Then in 2010 he was a well-liked and popular veteran with a proven conservative record, including in the immediate past, and yet he got swept out.

Frederick, for his part, has a tarnished image compared to 4 years ago. He really hurt himself in a relatively high-profile way. That can't help him.

[NotJohnSMosby]

Most people simply don't like Jeff "Fredrick" Frederick. He's an arrogant, pompous ass with a mean streak. If half the Republicans I know can't stand the guy and wouldn't vote for him against almost any Democrat or independent, how would any voter think about him?

[change]

I tend to agree with DCC, and one never knows, this early, how events will turn. Events in DC surely will have great impact on this race.
Also, although Frederick is a very tenacious fundraiser and hard working candidate; having taken himself “out of the game” for some time might make it a bit more difficult to return. Puller is a very well liked and respected legislator and I imagine she will get all the support she needs from the D’s.
I do not put much faith in the “people don’t like Frederick” scenario as he has faced that since he first ran.
In all it would be a good race but, at this point, I would give the edge to Puller by 2-3 points.

That said, if the D’s (in Washington) screw the pooch and continue to ignore budget matters, long term fixes to the economy; if food prices and gas prices continue to creep up and unemployment continues to be above Obama’s 8% “new normal” it could be a different ball game.

Finally, has Frederick even suggested that he is running? If he has I missed it.

[chang]

And on a completely different subject, I (a conservative) am starting to like Obama’s decision to hold back our airstrikes in Libya and waiting for them to “beg” us to help.

Sure many of them might be killed and it may not be the best way to win a war, in the most efficient manner, but it surely makes them appreciate the US for what we can do if they “decide” they need us.

Obama may have inadvertently hit on a completely new diplomacy, with which I agree…

Next step is to make them pay for our assistance instead of us paying for their rebuilding; which will help our economy.

To bring it back to local politics, if he can do the same thing in Iraq and Afghanistan, he will turn the whole country to 75% democrat voters in the next elections and help “every” state legislature.

[Mr. Bubbles]

next time we attack libya, can we strap change to one of the bombs?

but on a more serious note. Brian moran is a fighter and he will see to it that the dpva has the resources and talent it needs to mount an aggressive campaign with a robust field program that will turn out these sporadic voting dems. Moran will make you rue the day you mocked this senate plan, ben.

[change]

Looks like most of the D's liked the house plan.

[NotJohnSMosby]

We don't like it, it's simply that the House plan is irrelevant. There's no path to a Dem majority in the House unless there's true non-partisan redistricting, and that isn't going to happen. We're not willing to trade the Senate for a handful of meaningless House districts. So, we're really only concerned with the Senate redistricting and the Congressional map.

[change]

NJSM,
If that is the case, why did not all the D’s vote against it?
Then they could have claimed “partisanship”, as it still would have passed with just R votes.
Instead it passed overwhelmingly.

[NotJohnSMosby]

Does it really matter if it's passed 61-39 or 91-9? In Fairfax and closer in, the Republican plan moves a few precincts around, but doesn't really hurt any of the incumbents. Of the 10 who voted against it, four are being dumped into Republican controlled districts with three picking up and moving to NoVA. Why Ebbin and Hope voted against it while Surovell and Englin didn't, I do not know. It would not have made a difference either way.

Are you trying to make a point that Dems like the Republican plan? If that's the case, then I would say Dems in the HoD like the Republican HoD plan about the same as Republicans in the Senate like the Democratic Senate plan.

[change]

NJSM,

Although all that "really matters" in a vote is which side wins; I always figure when someone votes for something then they must be ok with it.

Nobody in the Black caucus voted against it and some spoke in favor of the bill.

Do you often find that people who speak in favor of bills and vote for the same usually do so against their conscience?

It will be interesting to see the senate vote. Personally, I hope it passes.

[NotJohnSMosby]

I believe that the Senate vote will pass probably 35-5. The squawkers will be the Republicans being redistricted out of office, and maybe one or two others. As to the rest, I would guess that a lot of Dems in the HoD are well aware of the situation in the Senate, and aren't making a stink about the HoD plan since it would make them look hypocritical in voting for the eventual merged bill. I don't know this for a fact, but it would make sense. Why complain about the other party kneecapping you in your branch while you're party is kneecapping the other guys in the other branch?

What I'm not at all sure of is why Lacey Putney voted against it in committee, but for it on the floor. He probably forget he voted against it before he voted for it.

[change]

Good points.

Politics as usual...

[Not Dick Saslaw]

Rumor: Senate Dems have done polling in their would-be new districts and the answers look ugly...re-thinking maps...

[NotJohnSMosby]

I'm surprised the Senate Republicans all voted against both bills. Pretty odd.

[Not Larry Sabato]

Why is that odd?