Redistricting Update

VETO

Governor's Veto letter now up.

Download Letter to HOD on HB 5001

Comments

[Pins & Needles]

Are you hearing just the Senate bill, or both Senate and House?

[Not Larry Sabato]

It was all in one bill.

[Andrew]

Well now what?

I just want this to end with Morgan Griffith in the 6th (yeah, impossible thinking).

[JLT]

They haven't even passed a Congressional map yet, this is just for the state legislature.

[Bharat]

Ryan Nobles says he approved the House plan and vetoed the senate plan...Ds getting rolled?

[JLT]

They're all part of the same bill. The only way he could do that is by making amendments and sending it back to the legislature.

[Geoff]

I was going to say, I don't think Virginia has a line-item veto.

[Not Larry Sabato]

Right, Ryan is having a #fail with that one. The Gov may say he is vetoing *because* of the Senate plan, but he is vetoing both plans in the same bill.

[Mr. Jefferson]

Will this have any effect on filing dates, primary dates, etc. if we have to go back to the drawing board (with crayons)?

[JLT]

If they can't get something passed in the next couple months (in time to get DoJ clearance before the filing period), they'll have to have elections on the current maps this year and again next year under the new maps.

[Not Larry Sabato]

That's correct JLT.

Ryan has corrected his tweet.

[Lovettsville Lady]

Yup, he's vetoed the whole thing. http://virginiavirtucon.wordpress.com/2011/04/15/governor-mcdonnell-vetoes-redistricting-plan/

Give that little girl back her big green crayon.

[Sense]

So many intellects reading this blog. Must be constituents of yours, Ben. Thanks for the links to the good blogs!

[TGEoA]

Ben, would this effect your plan to run?

[Jerry Mander]

Amazing he votoes and talks about "communities of interest" and "compact and contiguous" yet he supported the Republican redistricting bill in 2001 which was anything but that!

What a double talk double standard.

But consider the source. It was to be expected.

[NotCatherineCrabill]

Good for Gov. McDonnell. Happy to see he has more backbone than the House Republicans did.

[Not Larry Sabato]

TGEoA- Still undecided, but certainly changes some dynamics of that decision.

[change]

I have often stated that I believe it best if government is not run by a single party; the most obvious example is the past few years in DC where the democrats (with complete control) spent us into oblivion using their power to roll the minority party.

The Governor is playing the same game, he is trying to embarrass the senate and will paint anyone who voted for the plan as a partisan who is only interested in their own political survival. You can, bet during the elections, he will be using their vote (politically) to attempt to gain majority in the senate.
The same silly, useless and BS Obama-politicking that we see in DC. (sheeze, why do we have to be so close to all that).

I hope the senate comes back with a plan that would make their majority even more solid, so that we may maintain some check and balance.

Or, maybe I am wrong about all this and, his goal is as simple as coveting another shot at the Sunday talk show circuit.

[NotCatherineCrabill]

I'm hoping the Senate Democrats all decide to flee the Commonwealth after McDonnell vetoes "Howell's Monstrosity v. 4.0" again, and show what great leaders they really are, like their brethren in Texas and Wisconsin.

[change]

Running away ain’t no way to win a fight..lol

[GretchenLaskas]

Change,

Although as a devoutly partisan Dem, I much prefer our party having more control than not, I do think you are probably right that most Virginians prefer divided government. I don't think it is a complete accident of whimsy that the governor's mansion tends to flip parties contrary to that in the White House, for instance. I don't think that it's incidental that as soon as Dems stopped controlling the House after decades, that they suddenly have been able to take and hold the state Senate. (Or, if you prefer the other perspective, I don't think it was shocking that after winning the House of Delegates after being shut out for decades, and redesigning the State Senate in 2001, that voters subsequently showed that yes, they still can see the forest for the trees.)

And I might add: Political junkies that we are, we tend to either focus on forest or trees, but it's hard to keep both in mind at the same time. After all, do you win elections because of a great campaign, excellent candidate and well funded war chest? Of course you do. But are there also cultural, political and economic forces out there that you can't control? Absolutely. They are both always true at the same time, and divided government in Virginia seems to be one of those forces.

[ToR]

The State House and State Senate plans need to both go. Adopt those put forth by the Universities and set in motion a non-partisan redistricting commission backed by a constitutional amendment for 2021.

[anteus]

The Senate Democrats gave him cover for the veto by drawing such a vulnerable plan.
There are a number of alternatives to running under the current districts this year and new districts next year, including, most likely, court-drawn districts for this year.

[change]

Gretch,
Let’s have lunch and solve all these issues.. the political morons be damned…lol

Then we could do dinner and solve the national budget issues...

Nobody else seems up to it...

ToR,
that ain't gonna happen... too logical...

[tmtfairfax]

Iowa, which is redistricted by a nonpartisan legislative agency came up with a new congressional map, sans one district, that did not split counties. While we cannot do that, we sure can stop splitting precincts.

[NotJohnSMosby]

change may be on to something. I believe you get a free hair styling when you hit the Sunday newsfests, and we all know how much time and effort Bob puts into his hair.

[SE VA MWC Alum]

Good for McDonnell. The House plans over all were lousy. (althought on the lower Peninsula the House plan wasnt too bad)The senate ones were awful. At a minimum dont split the City of Hampton in 3 senate districts and York County in three House districts.

[Lovettsville Lady]

I wish that everyone would give up on the non partisan dream for redistricting. It's not going to happen. Politicians are in charge, by definition, they are partisan. They have NO incentive to approve a non partisan plan and every incentive (their jobs) to NOT approve such a plan.

[James Young]

If there was a jurisdiction MORE screwed than PWC in the Senate plan, I don't know what it is. Howell's plan split the County into at least six different districts, with only one entirely in the County, and no others with a majority in the County, where our population justifies two full seats located entirely within the County.

[Ghost of RWR]

More to the point, it was Senator George Barker who pushed the Senate plan. He grew the lines. He was the one who lead the effort to throw Prince William under the bus, only after he carved out a nice piece for himself.

The Prince William GOP should move heaven and earth to defeat this guy.
Parts of 6 senate seats in a county of 400,000 people! That number, you would think, would result in at least the larger part of two seats with Prince William majorities and maybe a third with a minor part. But, no, the Senate, who knows PWC tends to the GOP, used the county like a hog at a pig pick’in! All you democrats just step up and take a chunk for yourself.

Barker is history unless this plan changes. He has made Prince William into “Price Willing”. I hope it turns out that he pays a price for treating the county like a deck of cards.

[Ghost of Alexander Hamilton]

Consider this....What if McDonnell wants this to wind up in Federal Court and have the court draw the lines? What happens? Many people I talk to think that if the courts decide the Senate lines you will likely have a GOP majority or heavily lean GOP district lines. The House will stay GOP but not by as much. McDonnell trades some GOP house seats for a GOP Senate. And I am told that if the courts get the case that will exclude the Obama Justice Department. Dunk.

[Anthony]

Hey Ghost... There are two seats with PWC majorities: Colgan's and Puller's, plus a significant part of the new 22nd. Fits your description of "larger part of two seats with Prince William majorities and maybe a third with a minor part."

"The Senate knows PWC tends to be GOP"... Is that why the 3 senators who represent the county now (minus Stuart, who has one precinct) are all Democrats, elected in lines drawn by Republicans in 2001?

[James Young]

Anthony, you question the assertion that "PWC tends to be GOP." Check with Ben on that one for election cycles like these. Barker LOST the PWC portion of his district in 2007 by a significant margin, in a bad GOP year and with a weak GOP Delegate candidate. Dems hold Colgan's district only because he's been there forever, he claims to be Pro-Life, and is not perceived as a moonbat. Even so, he won only 54% of the vote, hardly a substantial margin in a bad GOP year. And the last time Puller was challenged (in 2003), she won the PWC portion of her district by only about 500 votes.

As for your assertion that the proposed new seat which Puller currently holds has a "PWC majority," I'm fairly certain that you're simply wrong about that; most of the new district's population lies in Fairfax County. Haven't been able to find the numbers.

And even if you were correct, the numbers are very close, hardly the exclusively or dominantly PWC district that the County's population justified.

Don't try to put lipstick on this pig. Only partisanship can justify the way PWC was screwed by Barker's plan.

[James Young]

Anthony: Found the figures. A tiny majority --- 105,000 out of 200,000 --- of the proposed district's population lies in Prince William. This is achieved by splitting eight Prince William precincts, and ten Fairfax precincts.

[Glen Tomkins]

What happens if there's no deal, if the leg and the guv can't agree on new lines?

If that means the courts draw the new lines, then I think the Ghost of AH has this right. Mutual Partisan Gerrymander Disarmament, having lines drawn without partisan gerrymander, or even the bipartisan incumbent protection gerrymander you often see, would probably leave the House still pretty comfortably R, but at least put the Senate in play for an R takeover. Let the parties do it, and the Ds in the Senate draw lines that protect their majority, while Rs in the House merely enhance a hold that isn't really in danger.

If that analysis is accurate, of course McDonell vetoed the bipartisan gerrymander. He'll never do anything but veto, if that means it goes to the courts.

[Another not Ben]

Correct me if I'm wrong but if new lines are not drawn in time for the election, there would be an election this fall followed by another election next year. IF he keeps vetoing lines before the election it's possible the Senate could go to the GOP after the election and the Repubs would have the opportunity to draw both the House and the Senate lines.

[Leaked Dem Senate Info]

There is a new Senate plan that stretches the 37th District to Arlington. Ben will have to run against David Marsden in a primary

[Glen Tomkins]

AnB points out that the other possibility if there's no agreement on a plan possible with this House and Senate and this governor, then the issue gets kicked to the next leg, after the next elections. Maybe that election is likely to leave the Senate D, but it's not a lock, while a continued R lock on the House seems fairly well assured. The Rs have nothing to lose gambling that the new leg might write lines better for their side: no chance the Ds would get to write House lines and some shot at gaining an R Senate gerrymander.

So McDonell vetoes anything the Senate sends him that isn't a total capitulation.