Not Larry Sabato

Why Are The Democrats So Dysfunctionial?

Glenn Greenwald sums it all up here.

It's hard to put into words, but this is exactly why I've gotten so disengaged from the Virginia Democratic Party.  The strategy Glenn describes is all we have anymore.  Every elected Democrat is a "free agent" in the name of a "big tent" and together we stand for nothing other than "look at the freaks on the other side!"

Speaking of freaks on the other side, Democrats won a lot of elections from 2005 to 2008 thanks to George W. Bush.  Those days are over.  Democrats won't begin to win again until we stand for something that encourages people to go to the polls to vote for our candidates.

2011, 2012 and 2013 are all going to be ugly years for the Democratic Party unless someone figures this out.

Northern Virginia Put On Credit Watch

See more here.

Major Senate Development Breaking in Roanoke

Rumors are flying around today that Former State Senator Brandon Bell is about to become Brandon Bell, an Independent candidate to challenge incumbent GOP Senator Ralph Smith in the Senate seat based around Salem, Franklin and Roanoke.

This is a strong GOP seat, but with Botetourt taken out of the district in redistricting, it's one where Brandon Bell defeated Smith in the Republican primary four years ago (when Smith won by less than 100 votes to snatch the seat from Bell).  Without a Democratic candidate running, and lots of friends on the Republican side, Bell has an excellent shot of pulling off the upset as an Independent candidate of the ultra-conservative Smith.

It's also worth noting that Bell was the Senate sponsor of the bill to ban smoking in Virginia's restaurants.  Despite all of the push back at the time, it's hard to find people still complaining about this law- in fact, it's become fairly universally popular since it took effect which is going to be a big plus for his campaign.

Go Brandon!

5 Reasons To Endorse Ryan Tonight

Tonight the Fairfax County Democrats will endorse a third candidate for At-Large School Board to replace their endorsed candidate who withdrew last month.

That endorsement should go to Ryan McElveen.

Here's five reasons why:

1)  Democrats need to field more young candidates.  It helps turnout among young voters that benefit every candidate on the ticket.

2)  Ryan handled his defeat at the last endorsement meeting with total class and got behind the endorsed Democratic candidates.  His opponent was going to run At-Large as a non-endorsed candidate against the Democrats until this opportunity opened up.

3)  Ryan isn't part of either faction in school board politics right now, both of which are behaving in ways that are embarrassing for such a large county and great school system.

4)  Ryan attended Fairfax County Public Schools, including Marshall High School, a low performing high school in the system.  He has a unique perspective from that which could help focus on student achievement issues in schools in the eastern part of the county.

5)  Most important for Democrats- Ryan is from Westbriar precinct in Vienna, one of the precincts Barbara Comstock added to her district to try to win re-election against Pamela Danner.  In what will be a very close race for Delegate, having a popular Democratic hometown candidate on the ballot with her in Westbriar could help tip that precinct- and the seat- to Pamela.  Win or lose countywide, if Ryan's candidacy helps take down Comstock it has done us all an incredible favor.

 

Progressive Caucus Forms PAC

This press release went out for the Virginia Progressive Caucus this morning. Full disclosure, I've signed on to be the group's Treasurer.  See more coverage here, here and here.

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PROGRESSIVE CAUCUS FORMS PAC

The 21 member progressive caucus that was formed in the General Assembly this year today announced the formation of the Virginia Progressive Caucus Political Action Committee. The PAC will support candidates for the General Assembly who share the membership's progressive values and plan to join the Progressive Caucus if elected.

Virginia Progressive Caucus PAC founder and Co-Chairman Patrick Hope noted the importance of this PAC. "General Assembly elections typically bring extremely low turnout, so a critical factor in winning seats is mobilizing the base. Democrats in Virginia have failed to do that in many elections because progressive voters have struggled to determine who the candidates were that would really stand up and fight for their values. We hope to see this PAC give voters an additional tool in determining that, as well as providing the financial support to those candidates to help them be elected."

The Progressive Caucus PAC will issue a first round of endorsements in August.

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When Law Makers Become Law Breakers...

Just got a release from the Jason Flanary campaign in Fairfax, complaining that Dave Marsden has illegal campaign signage up.  Jason is absolutely right- Fairfax allows signs for 75 days before an election and sells permits for that period.  Right now, the only permit that Marsden would be eligible for since he doesn't have a contested primary is the 75 days before November 8th, meaning he could put signs up August 26th. 

The same applies for Barbara Comstock and Caren Merrick who I have noticed also have illegal signs up already despite not having a primary.

Voters hate these signs- even in the periods where they are legal to put up.  Would be great to see Ray Morrogh make an example out of Marsden, Comstock and Merrick here.

Flanary release below:

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE                                                                 

FRIDAY, JULY 22, 2011

 

Senator Dave Marsden Violates Fairfax County Law

Illegally posting campaign signs throughout Virginia’s 37^th State Senate District

Centreville, VA – Friday, July 22, 2011 – Today, the Fairfax County Department of Planning and Zoning confirmed Senator Dave Marsden is in direct violation of the Commonwealth’s Office of Elections’ regulations by posting campaign signs, while not participating in a Primary Election

“Dave Marsden believes election laws apply to everyone else but him.  Last year he didn’t live in the district in which he was running and this year he’s illegally placing signs in around Fairfax County, more than one month before the law allows,” said Jason Flanary, Republican candidate for the State Senate.  “When will Senator Dave Marsden learn that even he has to follow Virginia’s laws?”

The Department of Planning and Zoning confirmed that Marsden had not applied to post signs during a primary election, and that the signs posted throughout the 37^th State Senate District displayed a permit number, #2110960140, that was issued solely for the purpose of the general election. August 25, 2011 is the start date in which candidates participating in a General Election may begin to post signs.

McDonnell Lies About State Workers

Good catch by Politifact.

Barbara Favola Will Not Sell You Out Cheap

But for $2,500... that's another story.

Disgrace

Last night, I had a chance to attend the Great Falls debate between Barbara Favola and Jaime Ariezaga-Soto.  The event was well organized by the Dranesville District Democratic Committee and their Chairman Ron Bleeker.  Moderating the debate was former Delegate Steve Shannon who also did quite a nice job.

With all of the negative mail, negative phone calls and trash talking press releases going out between the campaigns, it was expected that the debate would be highly charged.  Both candidates defended themselves where their opponents had overstepped- Jaime when Barbara called him an "intern" for Senator Whipple and Barbara defended herself well against Jaime's over the top mail.

There'd be a lot more to report from the actual debate but what happened after the debate really stole the show.

When the candidates wrapped up their closing statements, Ron stood up to thank everyone for attending and to remind the crowd to vote on August 23rd, but also be prepared to unite behind the winner on August 24th.  Jaime then offered his hand to Barbara for a handshake.  Shaking her head no, Barbara slapped at his hand and stormed out of the library, not even bothering to say goodbye to her supporters who were in attendance.  The crowd audibly gasped when Barbara slapped at his hand.

I spoke with a number of people with different angles to the "slap" and the general consensus was that she didn't make contact with Jaime's hand.  Some people thought it was close, others didn't.  But Barbara's actions turned the room against her.  A number of "neutral" members of the Dranesville Committee told me after the debate they were now supporting Jaime, and two of Barbara's supporters told me they were going to flip to Jaime. 

Big picture here- Caren Merrick is waiting for the winner of this primary, and Democrats can't afford to have a candidate on the ballot that is unable to control their own behavior.  Everyone who wants to hold this seat in November needs to work to nominate Jaime- Barbara is unhinged and out of control. 

VOTE FOR LOYOLA OR HE WILL SHOOT YOU!

We've all seen a lot of pro-gun candidates run and win in Virginia, but we've never seen anything like this before.

Check out GOP nominee Ben Loyola's website on his "2nd Amendment" issue page.  On it, he is pictured standing on a shooting range pointing a handgun *AT* someone else's head.

This is incredibly dangerous and probably violates the rules of the shooting range.  I don't know where Loyola was for this, but I called the largest shooting range in Virginia Beach (C2 Shooting Center) and asked the person who answered the phone if something like this would break their rules.  They told me "it would be immediate grounds for ejection" from the shooting range.

On a political level, does Loyola think it will help him beat incumbent Ralph Northam by posting a picture like this?  Besides the irresponsible behavior in the picture, what does it say about him that he thinks this is a picture he wants the voters of the 6th Senate District to see when they come to his website?

I'm doing some research on whether any laws were broken here also.  More to come soon...