Rumors are flying around today that Former State Senator Brandon Bell is about to become Brandon Bell, an Independent candidate to challenge incumbent GOP Senator Ralph Smith in the Senate seat based around Salem, Franklin and Roanoke.
This is a strong GOP seat, but with Botetourt taken out of the district in redistricting, it's one where Brandon Bell defeated Smith in the Republican primary four years ago (when Smith won by less than 100 votes to snatch the seat from Bell). Without a Democratic candidate running, and lots of friends on the Republican side, Bell has an excellent shot of pulling off the upset as an Independent candidate of the ultra-conservative Smith.
It's also worth noting that Bell was the Senate sponsor of the bill to ban smoking in Virginia's restaurants. Despite all of the push back at the time, it's hard to find people still complaining about this law- in fact, it's become fairly universally popular since it took effect which is going to be a big plus for his campaign.
Go Brandon!
Fantastic news!
Posted by: Kay | July 27, 2011 at 12:48 PM
Very interesting, if true. I'd agree Bell would have a shot as an independent. Unlike most indepedents, hell, most challengers, he'd probably have access to PAC money.
Posted by: Steve Vaughan | July 27, 2011 at 12:50 PM
This sounds like a Saslaw fantasy to me.
Regardless, if Bell does this he'd get crushed. The district is just too Republican.
Posted by: Reality Check | July 27, 2011 at 12:57 PM
This is where I wish a Democrat was running there. It's why you recruit in tough places.
And I'm a Democrat, I'm not joining the "Go Bell" cheer. Unless Bell is someone who would defect from his party a significant amount, there's no benefit in Bell winning just because Smith is farther right.
Posted by: DCCyclone | July 27, 2011 at 02:10 PM
I hope we get the chance to vote for someone other than Smith. Bell has a good shot since there is no incumbent. Smith may appeal to the far right but Bell can appeal to independents, right of center Republicans and even Democrats. Go for it Brandon!!
Posted by: Roanoke Independent | July 27, 2011 at 02:15 PM
Anyone know the last time an Independent was elected to the State Senate?
Posted by: Reality Check | July 27, 2011 at 02:31 PM
Great news!
Posted by: TheGreenMiles | July 27, 2011 at 02:38 PM
RC - People said the same thing about a write-in candidate to the US Senate with a ridiculously hard to spell name...
Posted by: Sam | July 27, 2011 at 03:29 PM
In 1995 Bell lost in the 21st, in 2007 Bell lost in the 22nd, if he runs in 2011 he will lose in the 19th.
Botetourt is gone from the district but so are Radford and the more marginal precincts in Montgomery. The additions of conservative strongholds in Bedford, Franklin, Floyd, Carroll, and Wythe to the district only make Smith stronger. Smith has also won over a lot of independents during his four years in the Senate. I guess Bell doesn't have much to lose having been thrown out of office twice already.
Posted by: RoanokeR | July 27, 2011 at 03:50 PM
From your response, Sam, I take it you don't know the answer to my question.
Posted by: Reality Check | July 27, 2011 at 03:51 PM
RC - I couldn't find the answer to your question either. Of course Virginia did elect independents to the U.S. Senate several times which would seem to be the tougher
feat.
Posted by: Steve Vaughan | July 27, 2011 at 04:17 PM
SV, help me here. Who else other than Senator Byrd jr. who else was there?
Posted by: SE VA MWC Alum | July 27, 2011 at 04:41 PM
disregard the "who else was there" at the end of the the previous post
Posted by: SE VA MWC Alum | July 27, 2011 at 04:42 PM
Cyclone, outside of social issues, Bell's record is more progressive than Saslaw's. It will be interesting to see how he shifts on the social side now that he isn't held down by GOP primary voters in SW Virginia.
Posted by: Not Larry Sabato | July 27, 2011 at 04:59 PM
Also re: an Independent elected. How often do we actually have "real" Independents run with financing where they even have a shot? This is exactly what Katherine Waddell did in 2005 in Richmond and she won. Unlike Waddell, Bell has won this seat before and lost by less than 100 votes among *Republican* primary voters.
Posted by: Not Larry Sabato | July 27, 2011 at 05:01 PM
SE VA MWC Alum:
RC's talking about Murkowski in Alaska last year.
Posted by: Flipper | July 27, 2011 at 05:42 PM
Who is going to fund him, Ben?
Do you think Saslaw would take a big gamble on Bell, praying he could win in an overwhelmingly R district and then caucus with the Ds?
And, if Saslaw put money into Bell, how do you think his vulnerable Democratic incumbents would feel?
Remember, unlike Waddell in 2005, Bell has no independent money constituency. Just about all of the money he raised in the past was based in the Republican establishment. They're not with him now.
Posted by: Reality Check | July 27, 2011 at 05:45 PM
How many persons can say they have lost their senate seat to both a Democrat and a Republican? I think that's all you need to know about Brandon.
Posted by: Gordon Sumner | July 27, 2011 at 08:13 PM
Bell's a two-time loser working on three (if he runs). He's a devout flip-flopper who can't self-fund his already-doomed campaign. What's his real motive? Is it about him? It certainly isn't about helping citizens. Progressives will have enough trouble trying to hold on to what we already have. We certainly don't need a person who can't decide who they are.
Posted by: BackCreek Jim | July 27, 2011 at 08:14 PM
NLS, to your comment regarding Waddell; I assume in this scenario Brandon Bell is going to bank on Ralph Smith telling a racially charged joke to a bunch of high school students too?
I think an Indy has a big time uphill battle in the new 19th.
Posted by: GOPHokie | July 27, 2011 at 08:54 PM
"it's become fairly universally popular since it took effect"
Cite?
Posted by: Valley Indie | July 28, 2011 at 07:52 AM
SE: I think Byrd Sr. switched to independent before he died, didn't he? He may not have, but he sure voted that way;-)
Posted by: Steve Vaughan | July 28, 2011 at 11:41 AM
Valley Indie: He means there isn't any organized opposition to the measure now. Bitching under our breath by those of use who still smoke doesn't count;-)
Posted by: Steve Vaughan | July 28, 2011 at 11:43 AM
SV-Byrd Sr never switched to I. Byrd Jr. was elected the first time as D and went I in 1970
Posted by: SE VA MWC Alum | July 28, 2011 at 11:56 AM
Was Virgil Goode an Independent when elected to the State Senate or a Democrat or whatever was convenient at the time?
Posted by: Brandon Bell's Missing Neck | July 28, 2011 at 12:11 PM
Virgil was a "D" in the State Senate for 20+ years. Then elected "D" to Congress in 1996. Then elected "I" in 2000, then "R" thereafter.
Posted by: Ghost of Henry Howell | July 28, 2011 at 12:29 PM
I think Sam's write in candidate to the U.S. Senate is Lisa Murkowski from Alaska. She beat a Sarah Palin supported Tea Party favorite who challenged her in a primary the last election cycle.
Posted by: Anonymous Is A Wp,am | July 28, 2011 at 02:44 PM
Rumor has it that Saslaw is going to pump some serious 000,0000s into the race. Bell is being played for a fool.
Posted by: Ghost of Alexander Hamilton | July 29, 2011 at 10:25 PM
Great scoop. One reason why I still read.
Posted by: Donkey Breath | July 30, 2011 at 10:55 PM
Was Eva Scott An Independent when she defeated Democrat Jim Edmunds for a Southside senate seat in the late 1970's?
Posted by: Jess Askin | July 30, 2011 at 11:18 PM
Virgil Goode was first elected to the VA Senate in 1973 as an independent in the special election to fill the vacancy created by the death of Senator William Stone. It was not uncommon for folks to be elected as "I's" in the early 70's as some Democrats chose the I moniker in order to avoid having to pledge support to liberal national nominees like McGovern.
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Specifically, many candidates up for election in 1973 ran as Independents for another very good reason... Mills Godwin was the Republican nominee for Governor that year, but was supported by many Democrats, as he had been a Democrat during his first term as Governor (1966-1970).
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