37th Senate Update

Outlook:  Leans Democratic

Usually in an election between a former party nominee and a new candidate in a redrawn district, the former nominee does well where voters know them in the old precincts, while the new candidate does well in the precincts where people don't know the former nominee as well.

That got turned upside down in this race.

OLD PRECINCTS IN THE 37TH
Jason Flanary 2,230 (54.6%)
Steve Hunt 1,856 (45.4%)

NEW PRECINCTS IN THE 37TH
Jason Flanary 641 (51.8%)
Steve Hunt 596 (48.2%)

As you can see Jason Flanary actually did better in the precincts where Steve Hunt was the most well known, even carrying Steve's home precinct by 17 votes.

My reaction to these results is that it seems to be more of a referendum of people unhappy with Steve's performance against Dave Marsden and less about Jason particularly.  That would explain Steve doing worse in the old 37th, and running much closer in the new 37th.  In fact, if you split the new precincts out between precincts that neighbored the old 37th, and precincts even further out that didn't follow the race at all- Hunt won nearly 2-1 in the precincts in Mason/Providence while Flanary didn't start doing well until he crossed the line into Braddock where new precincts were added but adjacent to the old district.

That's enough for Flanary to get a ballot spot in November, but won't be enough to beat Marsden.

Comments

[Loudoun Insider]

I think its simply a matter of the people who have seen Hunt the most voting against him because of those ridiculous American flag ties.

[kelley in virginia]

don't forget to analyze the Bill STanley v. Roscoe Reynolds race for your readers in Southern Va.

[Chuck]

If it weren't for the situation of how I fear the GOP taking over the State Senate, I could see voting for Jason. He's a pretty likable guy. During the primary I voted for Hunt just so the obnoxious one would go up against Marsden.

[Noticed]

Does anyone know if Marsden has moved into the 37th District yet? LOL

[Wholesale Authentic Jerseys]

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