Not Larry Sabato

The GOP War On Voting

See more here.

Last Tuesday Was Not Good For Jeff Frederick

Outlook:  Slight-Lean Democratic

One of the hottest Senate races this year featured former RPV Chairman Jeff Frederick challenging incumbent Senator Toddy Puller.  But before the General Election could get underway, Frederick had to get by a primary challenge from Tito "The Builder" Munoz.  Those results:

Jeff Frederick 3,670 (69%)
Tito Munoz 1,676 (31%)

It looks like a fairly united GOP to move on against Puller.  But when you look a little closer at the numbers you would see one glaring problem for Frederick:

Fairfax County
Jeff Frederick 763 (50%)
Tito Munoz 763 (50%)

Fairfax County is also the political base of Puller and it looks like Frederick has some serious problems there.  (It's worth noting that when Frederick was ousted as RPV Chairman the deciding vote was cast by Fairfax GOP Chairman Anthony Bedell).  It's almost certain that Frederick will be able to compete hard with Puller in the Prince William precincts, but he can't afford a massive Toddy margin in the very Democratic Fairfax Rt. 1 precincts still included in this district.

So despite his overall primary landslide, the results Tuesday seem to indicate a pretty big setback for Frederick in his bid to return to the General Assembly.

37th Senate Update

Outlook:  Leans Democratic

Usually in an election between a former party nominee and a new candidate in a redrawn district, the former nominee does well where voters know them in the old precincts, while the new candidate does well in the precincts where people don't know the former nominee as well.

That got turned upside down in this race.

OLD PRECINCTS IN THE 37TH
Jason Flanary 2,230 (54.6%)
Steve Hunt 1,856 (45.4%)

NEW PRECINCTS IN THE 37TH
Jason Flanary 641 (51.8%)
Steve Hunt 596 (48.2%)

As you can see Jason Flanary actually did better in the precincts where Steve Hunt was the most well known, even carrying Steve's home precinct by 17 votes.

My reaction to these results is that it seems to be more of a referendum of people unhappy with Steve's performance against Dave Marsden and less about Jason particularly.  That would explain Steve doing worse in the old 37th, and running much closer in the new 37th.  In fact, if you split the new precincts out between precincts that neighbored the old 37th, and precincts even further out that didn't follow the race at all- Hunt won nearly 2-1 in the precincts in Mason/Providence while Flanary didn't start doing well until he crossed the line into Braddock where new precincts were added but adjacent to the old district.

That's enough for Flanary to get a ballot spot in November, but won't be enough to beat Marsden.

The Latest On Hurricane Irene

Eric Cantor May Block/Slow Down Disaster Relief

For his home state and possibly even home district.

Jaime and Barbara in Fairfax

First in a series on the August 23rd Primary Results

Many people speculated that Arlington Democrats would not "play well" with Fairfax and Loudoun voters in the new 31st Senate District that was created.  I was one of those who questioned Barbara Favola and Jaime Areizaga-Soto's ability to appeal to these voters outside Arlington.

Now we have some results, so let's take a look at the numbers.

Most of the Fairfax precincts in the 31st also had a summer Democratic primary in 2007 between Margi Vanderhye and Rip Sullivan for the open Delegate seat in the McLean/Great Falls area. 

So how did turnout compare by precinct?  Which primary brought more Democrats to the polls to vote?

Chain Bridge Precinct
297 Votes in Margi-Rip
163 Voters in Barbara-Jaime
DROP OF 46%

Chesterbrook Precinct
304 Voters in Margi-Rip
246 Voters in Barbara-Jaime
DROP OF 19%

Churchill Precinct
183 Voters in Margi-Rip
105 Voters in Barbara-Jaime
DROP OF 43%

Cooper/Spring Hill Precincts
315 Voters in Margi-Rip
209 Voters in Barbara-Jaime
DROP OF 34%

Great Falls Precinct
83 Voters in Margi-Rip
103 Voters in Barbara-Jaime
INCREASE OF 24%

Kenmore Precinct
176 Voters in Margi-Rip
121 Voters in Barbara-Jaime
DROP OF 32%

Langley Precinct
250 Voters in Margi-Rip
148 Voters in Barbara-Jaime
DROP OF 41%

Salona Precinct
351 Voters in Margi-Rip
203 Voters in Barbara-Jaime
DROP OF 42%

Clearview Precinct
174 Voters in Margi-Rip
175 Voters in Barbara-Jaime
INCREASE OF 1%

Forestville Precinct
81 Voters in Margi-Rip
92 Voters in Barbara-Jaime
INCREASE OF 14%

Shouse Precinct
140 Voters in Margi-Rip
89 Voters in Barbara-Jaime
DROP OF 36%

Sugarland Precinct
69 Voters in Margi-Rip
66 Voters in Barbara-Jaime
DROP OF 4%

Hickory Precinct
109 Voters in Margi-Rip
115 Voters in Barbara-Jaime
INCREASE OF 5%

Seneca Precinct
74 Voters in Margi-Rip
89 Voters in Barbara-Jaime
INCREASE OF 20%

Colvin Precinct
63 Voters in Margi-Rip
95 Voters in Barbara-Jaime
INCREASE OF 51%

------------------------

Mixed results when sorted in precinct order, but check this out when sorted by zip code:

McLean Precincts
1,876 Voters in Margi-Rip
1,195 Voters in Barbara-Jaime
DROP OF 36%

Great Falls, Herndon, Vienna Precincts
793 Voters in Margi-Rip
824 Voters in Barbara-Jaime
INCREASE OF 4%

Margi and Rip both lived in McLean before running for the House, and obviously Barbara and Jaime do not.  Turnout dropped dramatically in McLean.

But turnout didn't drop elsewhere, it actually increased a little bit in the Great Falls, Herndon and Vienna precincts.

FINAL VERDICT:  The evidence shows I was wrong, and that turnout was not weakened because there was not a Fairfax candidate.  In fact, where turnout wasn't juiced for two local McLean candidates in 2007, turnout actually increaed.  In the primary at least.

NLS Election Night Coverage!

Updated as results come in!  Stay tuned!

Primary Ratings (Senate)

31st Senate
Primary Outlook:  Likely Favola
General Outlook:  Slight-Lean Democratic

Barbara Favola seems locked in with the older voters that dominate primary electorates.  Jaime Areizaga Soto's vote is a little more hidden so don't count him out- but it would be a major surprise if he won.  Barbara will enter the general election against Caren Merrick as the slight favorite because of Democratic performance but is one or two more gaffes away from potentially losing this seat to the GOP.

30th Senate
Primary Outlook:  Leans Krupicka
General Outlook:  Safe Democratic

Liz Chadderdon is known for blowing leads in primaries with her brain-dead mail and once again her client (Rob Krupicka here) has had the worst mail of any of the three candidates in the closing weeks of the campaign.  You can feel momentum in the district for Libby Garvey and Adam Ebbin- but they are sucking from each other which makes it a lot harder to catch up.  Advantage is still with Rob, but don't be surprised to see a tight three way finish here.

37th Senate
Primary Outlook:  Toss Up
General Outlook:  Leans Democratic

With the older electorate in the district, usually a candidate with Steve Hunt's bio and credentials would cruise past someone like Jason Flanary.  But that doesn't seem to be happening here, and Jason- who is one of the better GOP operatives in the state- seems like he might be on the cusp of upsetting Hunt and moving on the General Election.  Waiting for either candidate is Dave Marsden in an improved district for himself.

39th Senate
Primary Outlook:  Slight-Lean Baker
General Outlook:  Likely Democratic

The grassroots support in this primary goes to Scott Martin, but Miller Baker has had much better voter communication.  Either way, the winner faces a very uphill battle in the new 39th District that runs into Alexandria against George Barker.

22nd Senate
Primary Outlook:  Chaos
General Outlook:  Leans Republican

The new 22nd Senate district runs from Goochland to Lynchburg and has drawn a field of five candidates for the Republican nomination.  Three of those candidates seem to have enough support to have a shot- Mark Peake, Tom Garrett and Bryan Rhode.  Peake would be the strongest of the three in the General Election- but any of the three leading GOP candidates would start as a favorite over Bert Dotson.

36th Senate
Primary Outlook:  Safe Frederick
General Outlook:  Slight-Lean Democratic

As soon as the new lines for this district hit, I knew Jeff Frederick would run and Democrats had created a huge problem for Toddy Puller.  Tito Munoz is contesting Frederick's nomination, but not very well. This is going to be a real race going into November after Frederick trounces Munoz.

21st Senate
Primary Outlook:  Safe Nutter
General Outlook:  Leans Democratic

Dave Nutter was a great GOP recruit for this district, and he will cruise past Tripp Godsey in the primary.  Most interesting thing to watch here will be turnout in Roanoke City for Nutter, who started the campaign fairly unknown on that side of the district.  John Edwards still is the favorite going towards November, but this race rating could change if Nutter shows an ability in this primary to garner some big support outside the New River Valley.

3rd Senate
Primary Outlook:  Safe Norment
General Outlook:  Safe Republican

This one is a snoozer as Tommy Norment faces another primary he will win big before going on to another General Election he will win big.  Mark Frechette might be the least impressive challenge Norment has beat back yet.

13th Senate
Primary Outlook:  Leans Stirrup
General Outlook:  Likely Republican

This seat was drawn for a Loudoun Republican, but once Dick Black moved into the district, other Loudoun GOPers moved aside.  That left an opening for a conservative who wouldn't potentially lose this seat and Prince William Supervisor John Stirrup jumped in.  Stirrup has run a solid campaign and should take this thing on Tuesday.  Bob Fitzsimmonds is also running but will almost certainly be a distant third.  Shawn Mitchell could have made this a race against Black, but will face an uphill fight with Stirrup.

Cooch Blows Up

According to a Republican who used to work for John Boehner.

49th House Endorsement

49th House District

At the onset of this campaign, I will admit to being very skeptical of Stephanie Clifford.  She had only been involved in politics for a year, took some photos at events with her husband and suddenly wanted to represent the most Democratic district in Virginia in the House of Delegates.

On the other side was Alfonso Lopez, someone who I have known for almost a decade, a former YD President who went on to work for Tim Kaine in his DC liaison office.  From resume and involvement you might think this would be an easy choice.

But instead as this campaign has gone on, Stephanie has continued to improve as a candidate while Alfonso has raised serious questions about his ethics, honesty, temperament and policies that make him an unacceptable choice.

Alfonso (who has brought in Kaine for an event today) has only secured the endorsement of two Delegates and one (outgoing) Senator in Northern Virginia.  Does this strike anyone as a little strange coming from a guy who was "a member of the Kaine cabinet" running against a political neophyte?

Alfonso claims to be a "progressive champion".  Yet when he worked for Kaine, he went from event to event defending Kaine's repeal of the estate tax, Kaine's undermining of a tunnel in Tysons Corner, Kaine's support of the death penalty and Kaine's abuser fee scheme.  Alfonso even failed to speak up at the end of Kaine's term when he was denying people restoration of voting rights based on traffic tickets.

Meanwhile, on the dishonest front- if you attended any of the debates you would hear Alfonso tell a compelling story of himself after law school.  As the story goes, Alfonso decided against taking a high paid legal job, because he wanted to work in the Clinton administration for environmental regulations.  But when I searched the records of every state, Alfonso has never passed the bar in any of them.  Rumors are he failed it six times, but there are no records of people that failed the bar kept.  Big picture point though- if he never passed the bar, he never had a chance at the high paid legal work- so claiming that he bypassed a job he wasn't ever eligible for is misleading at best. 

On Tuesday I stood up at an event for Stephanie Clifford and endorsed her.  At that event, I pointed out some of this ridiculousness from Alfonso- but said that alone wasn't enough to compel me to get involved.  What really got me interested was looking at this district- one of the poorest and most needing of a hand up in Northern Virginia.

Having someone in Richmond who the Republicans will just point and laugh at from this district means they won't have an effective voice for the programs they need.  I believe Alfonso's election will cause real harm to people that need help because he won't be able to be an effective advocate for them and get things done.   In Richmond the Republicans will mock Alfonso when he stands up for "progressive issues" that he fought against when he worked for Kaine.  That makes him unacceptable.

If Stephanie Clifford hadn't improved as a candidate from the start of this I would have just stayed quiet and neutral.  But she's really made major strides in this campaign.  I see future potential in her, and more importantly- I see someone who can effective advocate for the people who need her in the 49th district.  That's why she has my support in this primary.