Jaime and Barbara in Fairfax

First in a series on the August 23rd Primary Results

Many people speculated that Arlington Democrats would not "play well" with Fairfax and Loudoun voters in the new 31st Senate District that was created.  I was one of those who questioned Barbara Favola and Jaime Areizaga-Soto's ability to appeal to these voters outside Arlington.

Now we have some results, so let's take a look at the numbers.

Most of the Fairfax precincts in the 31st also had a summer Democratic primary in 2007 between Margi Vanderhye and Rip Sullivan for the open Delegate seat in the McLean/Great Falls area. 

So how did turnout compare by precinct?  Which primary brought more Democrats to the polls to vote?

Chain Bridge Precinct
297 Votes in Margi-Rip
163 Voters in Barbara-Jaime
DROP OF 46%

Chesterbrook Precinct
304 Voters in Margi-Rip
246 Voters in Barbara-Jaime
DROP OF 19%

Churchill Precinct
183 Voters in Margi-Rip
105 Voters in Barbara-Jaime
DROP OF 43%

Cooper/Spring Hill Precincts
315 Voters in Margi-Rip
209 Voters in Barbara-Jaime
DROP OF 34%

Great Falls Precinct
83 Voters in Margi-Rip
103 Voters in Barbara-Jaime
INCREASE OF 24%

Kenmore Precinct
176 Voters in Margi-Rip
121 Voters in Barbara-Jaime
DROP OF 32%

Langley Precinct
250 Voters in Margi-Rip
148 Voters in Barbara-Jaime
DROP OF 41%

Salona Precinct
351 Voters in Margi-Rip
203 Voters in Barbara-Jaime
DROP OF 42%

Clearview Precinct
174 Voters in Margi-Rip
175 Voters in Barbara-Jaime
INCREASE OF 1%

Forestville Precinct
81 Voters in Margi-Rip
92 Voters in Barbara-Jaime
INCREASE OF 14%

Shouse Precinct
140 Voters in Margi-Rip
89 Voters in Barbara-Jaime
DROP OF 36%

Sugarland Precinct
69 Voters in Margi-Rip
66 Voters in Barbara-Jaime
DROP OF 4%

Hickory Precinct
109 Voters in Margi-Rip
115 Voters in Barbara-Jaime
INCREASE OF 5%

Seneca Precinct
74 Voters in Margi-Rip
89 Voters in Barbara-Jaime
INCREASE OF 20%

Colvin Precinct
63 Voters in Margi-Rip
95 Voters in Barbara-Jaime
INCREASE OF 51%

------------------------

Mixed results when sorted in precinct order, but check this out when sorted by zip code:

McLean Precincts
1,876 Voters in Margi-Rip
1,195 Voters in Barbara-Jaime
DROP OF 36%

Great Falls, Herndon, Vienna Precincts
793 Voters in Margi-Rip
824 Voters in Barbara-Jaime
INCREASE OF 4%

Margi and Rip both lived in McLean before running for the House, and obviously Barbara and Jaime do not.  Turnout dropped dramatically in McLean.

But turnout didn't drop elsewhere, it actually increased a little bit in the Great Falls, Herndon and Vienna precincts.

FINAL VERDICT:  The evidence shows I was wrong, and that turnout was not weakened because there was not a Fairfax candidate.  In fact, where turnout wasn't juiced for two local McLean candidates in 2007, turnout actually increaed.  In the primary at least.

Comments

[truthteller]

Good analysis.

[Noticed]

How much is this affected by time of year? IIRC the 2007 primaries were not in August, were they? Would the August vacation season also have been a cause of decreased voter turnout?

[Kris Amundson]

This is why you have to keep the blog. Can't do this analysis in 140 characters, Ben.

[Let's Be Free]

Interesting to learn that McLean isn't in Fairfax County.

[Max]

I agree with Kris. Great post, Ben.

[DCCyclone]

Good work, Ben.

Noticed's question is a good one.

Another is this: what other races were on the ballot in the 2007 Democratic primary? Was it just HD-34? Or was there more? The more races, the higher the turnout should be. I'm in Chain Bridge precinct, in both SD-31 and HD-34, and only the state Senate primary was on my ballot at Langley High School.

[Not Larry Sabato]

Let's Be Free- where did I say that?

[Not Larry Sabato]

Cyclone- both were alone on the ballot in these precincts.

[Lloyd the Idiot]

You missed the seven Loudoun precincts which had turnout far lower than even Fairfax.

Of course, I can't blame you. The candidates missed it, too.

[Not Larry Sabato]

Lloyd- I didn't miss it at all. The 34th House District that I was comparing them to didn't go into Loudoun at that time- so I didn't have good numbers to compare against.

[NotJohnSMosby]

How have the registered voter numbers in those precincts changed? With the recent addition of precincts to try and cut down on the idiotic split precincts created by redistricting, some precincts in Fairfax have really changed population of registered voters.

[Let's Be Free]

NLS, you said your were wrong to conclude that there would be a Fairfax drop, whereas there was actaully a substantial drop in Fairfax County when McClean is incuded. Fairfax City isn't in the 31st. You were right in the first place.

[DCCyclone]

Since HD-34 is discussed here, as an aside I got "polled" today by Bill Howell's Dominion Leadership Trust PAC on the Danner-Comstock race. They asked only 2 questions, party ID and who I'm voting for.

Maybe it was an honest poll, and just a quick-and-inexpensive check on the state of the race, but I get "randomly" selected for legitimate polls all the time and never had it limited to just 2 questions. I left wondering it it wasn't really a fishing expedition for fundraising, not unlike what is done in direct mail political fundraising.

[NotJohnSMosby]

If you had responded Republican and Comstock to one or two of those questions, I would bet that you would have received a sales pitch of some sort.

[Not Larry Sabato]

Let's Be Free- no I was wrong. I thought there would be a large drop across Fairfax County precincts, not just the ones that had inflated turnout in 2007 because of two hometown candidates running.

[Ricochet Rabbit]

DCC:
In case others don't know it, here is objective from Howell's PAC website:
The Dominion Leadership Trust is a political action committee (PAC) formed by Bill Howell, Speaker of the Virginia House of Delegates, in 2003. The Trust has played a leadership role in supporting Republican candidates for the House of Delegates since its founding ...
Soooo a 2 question poll is DEFINITELY a fishing expedition for $$