Primary Ratings (Senate)

31st Senate
Primary Outlook:  Likely Favola
General Outlook:  Slight-Lean Democratic

Barbara Favola seems locked in with the older voters that dominate primary electorates.  Jaime Areizaga Soto's vote is a little more hidden so don't count him out- but it would be a major surprise if he won.  Barbara will enter the general election against Caren Merrick as the slight favorite because of Democratic performance but is one or two more gaffes away from potentially losing this seat to the GOP.

30th Senate
Primary Outlook:  Leans Krupicka
General Outlook:  Safe Democratic

Liz Chadderdon is known for blowing leads in primaries with her brain-dead mail and once again her client (Rob Krupicka here) has had the worst mail of any of the three candidates in the closing weeks of the campaign.  You can feel momentum in the district for Libby Garvey and Adam Ebbin- but they are sucking from each other which makes it a lot harder to catch up.  Advantage is still with Rob, but don't be surprised to see a tight three way finish here.

37th Senate
Primary Outlook:  Toss Up
General Outlook:  Leans Democratic

With the older electorate in the district, usually a candidate with Steve Hunt's bio and credentials would cruise past someone like Jason Flanary.  But that doesn't seem to be happening here, and Jason- who is one of the better GOP operatives in the state- seems like he might be on the cusp of upsetting Hunt and moving on the General Election.  Waiting for either candidate is Dave Marsden in an improved district for himself.

39th Senate
Primary Outlook:  Slight-Lean Baker
General Outlook:  Likely Democratic

The grassroots support in this primary goes to Scott Martin, but Miller Baker has had much better voter communication.  Either way, the winner faces a very uphill battle in the new 39th District that runs into Alexandria against George Barker.

22nd Senate
Primary Outlook:  Chaos
General Outlook:  Leans Republican

The new 22nd Senate district runs from Goochland to Lynchburg and has drawn a field of five candidates for the Republican nomination.  Three of those candidates seem to have enough support to have a shot- Mark Peake, Tom Garrett and Bryan Rhode.  Peake would be the strongest of the three in the General Election- but any of the three leading GOP candidates would start as a favorite over Bert Dotson.

36th Senate
Primary Outlook:  Safe Frederick
General Outlook:  Slight-Lean Democratic

As soon as the new lines for this district hit, I knew Jeff Frederick would run and Democrats had created a huge problem for Toddy Puller.  Tito Munoz is contesting Frederick's nomination, but not very well. This is going to be a real race going into November after Frederick trounces Munoz.

21st Senate
Primary Outlook:  Safe Nutter
General Outlook:  Leans Democratic

Dave Nutter was a great GOP recruit for this district, and he will cruise past Tripp Godsey in the primary.  Most interesting thing to watch here will be turnout in Roanoke City for Nutter, who started the campaign fairly unknown on that side of the district.  John Edwards still is the favorite going towards November, but this race rating could change if Nutter shows an ability in this primary to garner some big support outside the New River Valley.

3rd Senate
Primary Outlook:  Safe Norment
General Outlook:  Safe Republican

This one is a snoozer as Tommy Norment faces another primary he will win big before going on to another General Election he will win big.  Mark Frechette might be the least impressive challenge Norment has beat back yet.

13th Senate
Primary Outlook:  Leans Stirrup
General Outlook:  Likely Republican

This seat was drawn for a Loudoun Republican, but once Dick Black moved into the district, other Loudoun GOPers moved aside.  That left an opening for a conservative who wouldn't potentially lose this seat and Prince William Supervisor John Stirrup jumped in.  Stirrup has run a solid campaign and should take this thing on Tuesday.  Bob Fitzsimmonds is also running but will almost certainly be a distant third.  Shawn Mitchell could have made this a race against Black, but will face an uphill fight with Stirrup.

Comments

[Not Hussein]

I wonder how many drinks Tommy Norment will have before driving home from his victory party tomorrow night.

[kelley in virginia]

would be interested to hear others thoughts on the 22d

[RC]

Peake finished 1st with a strong showing in Lynchburg and decent numbers in Amherst.

In a surprise, Bates edges out Garrett for 2nd. Rhode finished just behind Garrett for 4th.

Tucker finishes last.

And, I could be wrong.

[Malinda Kail]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y7PO4CyA3E4

[kelley in virginia]

thanks RC. are you ever wrong?

[RC]

I'm never not wrong, kelly.

[Andrew]

I hope something weird happens in that PW-Loudon area race. Shawn could make that an excellent race. Might be in over his head against a guy with $100,000 in the bank that he's barely spent, but I hope he sticks around and tries again. Too bad he followed the rest of Richlands HS up here and didn't stay home to pound Will Morefield.

[DCCyclone]

Areizaga-Soto and Favola have been aggressive in SD-31, and I'm glad for it. I'm voting for Jaime tomorrow morning, but it's good that they both have gone to the mat, speaks well of both of them. Bodes well for the general.

[NotJohnSMosby]

Ben continues to think that Frederick is much stronger than he is. Democrats hate him, and most Republicans don't like him. He'll destroy the pathetic Tito tomorrow, but I really don't see him standing much of a chance against Toddy. That district is a few points stronger for Dems now than it was before redistricting.

I don't think the primary will damage Favola. Yeah, she could screw it up, but she would have to do like Coakley in Massachusetts last year to lose that seat. Lets hope she's not stupid enough to do that.

[truthteller]

Ben. Have you looked at the Favola Cherrydale issue posted at blueva? That seems to be at least one precinct where I would expect Favola not to be turning out folks in droves over how she handled the firehouse....

[truthteller]

Ben how about ratings for House of Delegates? You promised a prediction for the Lopez - Clifford race...

[Lovettsville Lady]

Ben, have you seen my predictions for Loudoun? http://virginiavirtucon.wordpress.com/2011/08/22/primary-predictions/
They're a bit different from your's. Stirrup has NOT run a good campaign, not at all what I expected.

[Android apps development]

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[WoW]

gotta tell ya - the 30th candidates (excluding Adam) have really dropped the ball in the new area of their district - Mt. Vernon.
3 polling places as of 8:30 each only had 21 / 23 voters - no signage at polling place - by Krupricka - only one sign from Libby @ two of the three. I think this new area is gonna go for Adam and maybe the sweaker....

[Stephen Spiker]

NotJohn, if we wanted rose-colored analysis of the races, we'd read DPVA emails or Blue Virginia.

[Spock]

I agree with WoW...I hope Adam takes it, he deserves it and he really does care about the people in his district.

[Andrew]

Roanoke Prediction: Roanoke County turnout is going to be decently high for a summer primary election (infer what you will from that). I have word from a election supervisor friend in Mont. County that turnout is low. Nutter has done very little to reach into the Roanoke area so far and Godsey at least appears to be working hard. Could be closer than it should be. Hoping for a shocker so Sen. Edwards has a clear path.

[Cool_Arrow]

Stephen -

Why don't you give us your predictions right now since John was too optimistic?

[Flipper]

@Andrew:
According to the Roanoke Times turnout in Montgomery County was about twice as high as in Roanoke city. Roanoke County only has a few precincts in that district.

[Stephen Spiker]

My prediction is that both Frederick/Puller and Merrick/Favola will be close races.

[Andrew]

@Flipper:
I'm an idiot. I was thinking for some reason that this district's City portion was actually the size of its County portion. I should have realized that didn't make sense. That's not surprising then. Likely an easy Nutter victory since the City doesn't have much of a base for Godsey to build from.

[Romney4Prez]

I googled Adam Ebbin and found this:

http://virginiarepublican.blogspot.com/2005/04/taxes-are-homosexual.html

????

[gg2landy]

Tom Garrett won the 22nd Senate Primary and Mark Peake finished 3rd. Bert Dodson will have support from moderate Republicans in Lynchburg ( 21% of the voters in the 22nd) because he is well known and a businessman!

[sports good]

I have word from a election supervisor friend in Mont. County that turnout is low. Nutter has done very little to reach into the Roanoke area so far and Godsey at least appears to be working hard.