Last Tuesday Was Not Good For Jeff Frederick

Outlook:  Slight-Lean Democratic

One of the hottest Senate races this year featured former RPV Chairman Jeff Frederick challenging incumbent Senator Toddy Puller.  But before the General Election could get underway, Frederick had to get by a primary challenge from Tito "The Builder" Munoz.  Those results:

Jeff Frederick 3,670 (69%)
Tito Munoz 1,676 (31%)

It looks like a fairly united GOP to move on against Puller.  But when you look a little closer at the numbers you would see one glaring problem for Frederick:

Fairfax County
Jeff Frederick 763 (50%)
Tito Munoz 763 (50%)

Fairfax County is also the political base of Puller and it looks like Frederick has some serious problems there.  (It's worth noting that when Frederick was ousted as RPV Chairman the deciding vote was cast by Fairfax GOP Chairman Anthony Bedell).  It's almost certain that Frederick will be able to compete hard with Puller in the Prince William precincts, but he can't afford a massive Toddy margin in the very Democratic Fairfax Rt. 1 precincts still included in this district.

So despite his overall primary landslide, the results Tuesday seem to indicate a pretty big setback for Frederick in his bid to return to the General Assembly.

Comments

[NotTito]

Agree, though I'd think this might be enough to drop the "Slight" from your outlook.

Especially as so many of those Strong D precincts overlap with Surovell who's got two opponents. Surprised that the Rs let someone take a run at him when it'll juice Toddy's numbers there.

[Edthemanva]

glad you think that way...that way of thinking almost cost Charniele Herring her seat in the Va House of Delegates. Remember she only won by 16 votes in a 80 percent pro Obama district.

[truthteller]

I think part of Ben's point was that Dems won't be caught napping in this seat no matter what -- particularly, not with Surrovell who always turns out his voters overlapping with most of the Fairfax part of the district, and a Latino Dem overlapping with Puller in much of the PWC part of her district. When control of the Senate hangs by a razor's edge, Dems won't be caught napping in the Puller seat. Frederick is also a very polarizing figure and will motivate Dems to turn out, while clearly some Republicans hold mixed feelings about him.

[Stephen Spiker]

"Surovell who always turns out his voters"

He's had one election.

[Edthemanva]

truthteller....i've heard that before....ask our next Governor Ken Cuccinelli.

[NotJohnSMosby]

I'm sure enough people in "real Virginia" would vote for anyone with an R next to their name on a ballot, be they Jeffrey Dahmer, Ida Amin or Ken Cookinelli. However, since we're talking about the this particular Senate district - which is largely in "fake Virginia" and some "fake Virginia" collaborators in Stafford County, I don't think we have much to worry about.

[truthteller]

Ed the Man, Cuccinelli's extreme views will galvanize Dem voters if he tops the ticket. It may be a close election but his views on choice, civil rights, his priority for protecting campaign contributors over consumers, his attempts to overturn civil rights for the developmentally disabled (overturned by the Supreme Court), his war on the environment, et al. will not wear well in NOVA once given a full airing. Fairfax is Democratic country and Northern Virginia now has nearly 40% of the state's electorate once Loudoun Arlington, Alexandria and PWC are factored in.

And as for the Puller district. Scott Surrovell is already a proven mobilizer of Democratic votes sspiker. Before he became an elected official, he was already known for having an incredible grassroots operation in South Fairfax which was a difference maker for Jim Webb, George Barker, Tim Kaine and Barack Obama!

[Kris Amundson]

And do not underestimate the importance of having the surname of Puller in a district that includes Quantico. Even though many of the people on the base vote elsewhere, there are lots and lots of retirees. Also, Toddy works as hard as a Marine!

[NoVA Scout]

I really don't understand how Republicans can support Frederick after his hitch as RPV Chairman. That really was a disaster. I would have assumed he is regarded as pretty much toxic waste within the Republican Party.

[Omega]

From Sunrise and sunset,permanence is the river of time. Back in the million years ago, humans have learned to observe and control the time of the operation of the law. From the corona to the atomic clock, the human mastery of time and measurement methods had changed more and more science, sophisticated. watches replica real development is from the beginning of the 16th century and spread knowledge of science and technology. With the timer design, improvement, manufacture and spread, the clock have being started around our side and along with the progress of human society have being progressed. It not only improve our way of life, but aosl their own is fine art and Priceless. As watch enthusiasts should know that clock follow the time's the tracesin in the footsteps.

[NoVA Scout]

Thanks, Omega, I guess that was what I was trying to say. You got to the point much more concisely.