Not Larry Sabato

Bullshit Endorsements

There have been a lot of organizations doing them this year and now NVTC has joined in with their bullshit endorsements.

Tune in here this weekend for more on this topic.  I've been researching and interviewing people doing some of these types of endorsements for the last month and will have some information that will really open your eyes to how this all works.

Broadband: The Game Changer for Rural America

Thanks for this guest post from Congressman Boucher on the issue he's been working on since he left Congress!

Guest Post from Former Congressman Rick Boucher

When I arrived in Congress in 1983, town meetings in my district’s most rural counties centered on access to television—or lack thereof. It was clear then that one of the most pressing issues for the communities I represented was keeping families and businesses up to speed with modern communications capabilities. After witnessing the transformation that local focus and commitment produces in communities, I am certain of what access to high-speed Internet can mean for rural populations.

Today, millions of Americans are taking advantage of the benefits of broadband, from real-time news to on-demand education and information to better health care options. The Internet advances daily life and drastically enhances the ways we’re able to interact with our world. But too many Americans have yet to experience the benefits of this technology, to take advantage of the opportunities it provides. This promise of expansive rural opportunity leads me to support AT&T’s proposed merger with T-Mobile. The companies combining their strengths will bring 4G LTE wireless broadband access, with data speeds rivaling today’s fastest wired connections, to an additional 55 million Americans or more than 97 percent of the U.S. population. Earlier this year, President Obama set a goal for reaching 98 percent of the population with broadband access within five years. The merger of AT&T and T-Mobile would very nearly achieve the President’s goal – with private capital investment, not taxpayer funds.

The Internet is a bridge that ties rural America to our nation's and our world’s economic mainstream; it enables virtually any business to be conducted from any location. A physical proximity to customers and suppliers is no longer necessary, as the virtual proximity enabled by a broadband connection meets the same communications need: operations can be conducted just as efficiently from remote regions as they can in or near cities. Then, businesses and their employees can capitalize on the lower costs and the high quality of life they’ve come to cherish in rural communities. Broadband access benefits rural communities in many ways, from driving economic development, to improving health care and educational opportunities. Check out this infographic to see more.

Thanks to 28 years representing a rural Congressional district, I view the opportunities information technologies can bring to our nation through a rural lens. Technologies that connect our communities with the rest of their state, country and the world are reason for optimism even in the current economy. It’s hard not to be excited about delivering new options to millions of Americans, as the nation moves toward every citizen becoming part of the Broadband Revolution.

Bob McDonnell Flubs Pledge

Republicans Smell Blood in Fairfax

Just got off the phone with a GOP leadership source in the House of Delegates.  House Republicans have made a commitment to invest $75,000 each in two Fairfax challengers over the next couple weeks.

37: Brian Schoeneman who is challenging David Bulova
44: John Barsa who is challenging Scott Surovell

Republicans are seeing a very good environment continue from 2009 and 2010 and think with resources they can make these races competitive.

Current Race Outlooks:

37th:  Leans Democratic
44th:  Likely Democratic

Big Mistake on AP Day

This op-ed says it all.

 

Fairfax Shakeup

The Superintendent responsible for the revolt against the School Board announces his retirement 47 days before election day.

Fairfax County School Board Preview/Endorsements

We've been covering the Fairfax County School Board very carefully on this blog for the last four years.  The reality is they have been a total failure on a number of key issues and really need some turnover.  With 6 of 12 seats open that change is coming. 

But will it be the right kind of change, or change that leads to a school board banning library books like Harry Potter for witchcraft, or trying to "tone down" the sex education as Republican candidates have tried to do in the past?

Here's where I see the races stacking up right now- and my endorsements.

At Large (Top 3 win)
Outlook:  Slight-Lean Moon, Slight Lean Mancheno-Smoak, Toss Up
My endorsements: Ilryong Moon, Ted Velkoff, Ryan McElveen
Others Worth Considering:  Steve Stuban, Sheree Brown-Kaplan

Analysis: At-Large is always chaotic for the Fairfax School Board, with all candidates running on one ballot for 3 seats.  With the exception of 2007 when the GOP failed to field legislative candidates in over 100 precincts in eastern Fairfax- leading to reduced turnout and a Democratic sweep- voters in Fairfax have always split their ticket for At-Large seats, electing at least one Democratic endorsed candidate and one Republican endorsed.  This year the likely outcome is Ilryong Moon on the Democratic side, and Lolita Mancheno-Smoak for the GOP- with the other candidates fighting for 3rd place.

Endorsement: That having been said, I would first recommend the entire Democratic At-Large ticket to voters.  Ilryong Moon has been an outstanding member of the Board and absolutely deserves re-election.  Ted Velkoff has been all over Fairfax County working since he announced at the start of this year.  Ryan McElveen can provide a perspective of a former student that the board hasn't had in recent years.

For voters who don't want to vote for all the Democrats, you have two good options.  Steve Stuban is the father of a student who committed suicide after going through the absurd and punitive Fairfax school discipline system.  A win by his campaign (endorsed by both teachers unions) would send a loud signal that voters will not tolerate the excuses from Fairfax administrators on their abuses of students any longer.  Sheree Brown-Kaplan (endorsed by one of the two major teachers unions) is a special education advocate with support from a number of Democrats that I have a lot of respect for.  She is also worthy of consideration.  

Braddock District
Outlook:  Toss Up
My Endorsement:  Megan McLaughlin

Analysis: This open seat race between Nell Hurley and Megan McLaughlin is one of the most competitive in the county.  Downballot from the only seriously contested Supervisor race, the school board race in Braddock is getting less attention than it deserves.  With John Cook backing Hurley, and Janet Oleszek backing McLaughlin, this race may hinge on the outcome of the Supervisor's race. 

Endorsement:  I would recommend that voters select McLaughlin who has been a parent advocate involved in FairGrade as well as other school reform initiatives.  Hurley is a good person, but expressed some extreme views in her at-large school board race on social issues- and that is not the direction the Fairfax School Board needs to go.  Yes, I had some fun at Megan's expense during the Democratic Primary in Braddock but I really do believe she is the better candidate in this race and voters should select her.

Hunter Mill District
Outlook:  Leans Hynes
My endorsement:  Pat Hynes

Analysis: Hunter Mill is a solidly Democratic district, which gives Pat Hynes the political edge over Nancy Linton. In fact, Linton hasn't had much of a campaign at all here, probably hoping for low turnout.

Endorsement: Hynes is the better choice for voters with her nine years of experience in the classroom- a perspective the School Board could use.

Dranesville District
Outlook:  Slight-Lean Epstein
My Endorsement: Janie Strauss

Analysis:  This race is the most likely incumbent take down in the county.  For some strange reason, Janie Strauss decided to take on the Chairmanship of the Board in an election year when voters are angry with the School Board- in a very marginal district.  With both teachers unions backing Louise Epstein, she looks like the favorite going into the final month.

Endorsement:  Remember what I said earlier about the crazy Republican social issues candidates?  Watch out for that here- as Epstein's campaign manager sent a memo to GOP candidates earlier this year on how to avoid talking about issues of concern to the GLBT community in Fairfax County Schools.  That should send off all sorts of warning bells about Epstein's real agenda here.

Lee District
Outlook:  Safe Kaufax
Endorsement:  None

Tamara Kaufax is running unopposed in Lee.  She'll obviously win.  I'm declining to endorse since I've never met her, and know absolutely nothing about her.

Mason District
Outlook:  Safe Evans
My Endorsement:  Sandy Evans

Also running unopposed is Sandy Evans.  All you need to know about Evans is she was the handpicked replacement by Kaye Kory- one of the best School Board members Fairfax has ever had.  She is very deserving of your vote.

Mt. Vernon District
Outlook:  Slight-Lean Storck
My Endorsement:  Dan Storck

Analysis:  A big break occurred just before the filing deadline for Dan Storck when a GOP candidate filed against local Delegate Scott Surovell.  With Scott bringing out Democratic votes, it brings a race that looked to be slipping away from Democrats back into a Dem upperhand.  Michelle Nellenbach will need to counter the upballot Dem momentum for Surovell and Toddy Puller to pull this off now.

Endorsement:  I'm not enthused with Storck or his record, but the ridiculous comments from his opponent on "wasteful spending" in the schools (with nothing backing that up) shows that she is an ideologue and not running for the best interest of the students.  Voters better stick with the incumbent here.

Providence District
Outlook:  Safe Reed
Endorsement:  Write In Someone Else

Patty Reed is running unopposed in Providence District.  She does not deserve re-election and voters should write in someone else.

Springfield District
Outlook:  Leans Schultz
Endorsement:  Elizabeth Schultz

Analysis:  This open seat for Liz Bradsher's position is one of the most charged races of the year after the closing of Clifton Elementary School.  Of all the bad decisions the Board has made this might have been the worst one and has electrified the rural section of Fairfax County in the southwest portion of the county.  Elizabeth Schultz was a parent of students at Clifton and blocked Bradsher's re-endorsement on the GOP side when she ran herself.  After the Dems refused to accept Bradsher she decided not to run again, and John Wittman stepped forward.  The energy is behind Schultz in this GOP leaning area which gives her the edge.

Endorsement:  Yes, I am endorsing Schultz even though she is a Republican.  It is very important for Clifton to be re-opened and only the election of Schultz can send that message to the School Board.  I might normally bite my tounge in a case like this but Wittman has been coordinating with Bradsher.  Anyone that would want the support of someone like Liz Bradsher should not be near any public office.

Sully District
Outlook:  Toss Up
Endorsement:  Kathy Smith

Analysis:  In a tough GOP area and with a public revolt brewing over the School Board, Kathy Smith should be toast in this election.  But her GOP opponent, Sheila Ratman hasn't run much of a campaign.  That's leaving the door open for Kathy to pull off a win here if she can convince the public the next four years will be better.

Endorsement:  In a year with a lot of turnover, it would be good to have a few School Board members back with some experience.  Kathy led the School Board as Chairman for a few years and it would be good to have her back for another four years on the Board.

2011 GOP Senate Candidates

Great Selection By Gov. McDonnell

With the first state appointment to the Metro Board, Governor McDonnell selects Jim Dyke.

Jim is one of the most respected people across party lines in Northern Virginia and will do an outstanding job.

I can't think of a better possible appointment.

 

New Finance Reports Out

One way that you can judge the strength of campaigns is the finance reports filed with the state.

In the biggest development- for the new reports out yesterday, Dianne Blais, the independent against Tim Hugo has outraised Brian Schoeneman, the Republican running against David Bulova.  It's clear the Blais campaign is ready to roll into November, while the Schoeneman campaign seems to be coming apart.