Republicans Smell Blood in Fairfax

Just got off the phone with a GOP leadership source in the House of Delegates.  House Republicans have made a commitment to invest $75,000 each in two Fairfax challengers over the next couple weeks.

37: Brian Schoeneman who is challenging David Bulova
44: John Barsa who is challenging Scott Surovell

Republicans are seeing a very good environment continue from 2009 and 2010 and think with resources they can make these races competitive.

Current Race Outlooks:

37th:  Leans Democratic
44th:  Likely Democratic

Comments

[NotJohnSMosby]

I don't think it's so much for a chance of winning those seats, but two reasons. One, where else will they put their money? With so few Dem seats being challenged, they need to put their cash somewhere. Second, they want to get Republican turnout up in those areas as much as possible so that Toddy Puller, George Barker and Dave Marsden have tougher roads to reelection.

[GLou]

Nice attempt at political prognosticating but NJSM is simply wrong. There are plenty of places for House Rs to put their money. They've got over 20 challenger races across Virginia so why waste this money on lost causes. As for giving the Senators a tougher run, when do you ever see down ballot races provide coat tails to the up ballot races?!

Surovell and Bulova are in trouble and continue to ignore their challengers. Chap is running against someone with no chance or funding and he is still putting up a fight. Doesn't look like bulova or surovell really care for the job or they expect it to be handed to them.

[GretchenLaskas]

Honest opinion -- I still don't think that either of these seats is in serious play this year, but this is still a very smart move on Republicans' part.

In the short term, you force the candidates that were otherwise moving more smoothly to victory to have to compete. They will need to raise more money and stay in their own districts. Democrats might be forced to pony up some state-wide cash of their own.

In the long term, this is an investment. This is a long term investment that could pay big dividends in the future. You often don't turn a district in a single election, after all. This money will allow Republicans to better understand the district, better identify Republican leaning voters, and raise visibility.

And sometimes, if the political winds blow your way, you get lucky and a district can turn because of some other reason. But if you aren't ready for that fluke, you can't take advantage of it.

Of course, SOME of us have been saying for YEARS that we wish the Democratic Party of VA was thinking this way. But instead, we prefer to cling to what we have while spending boatloads of money in primaries.....sigh.

[GLou]

Of course that's your honest opinion Gretchen-you're a Bulova supporter and have donated to his campaign. Please try to step outside your Democrat bubble and talking points once in a while.

[GretchenLaskas]

Sure I support Bulova. That's no secret. But I don't hate Republicans (I guess you skipped over the "smart play by Republicans" part of the post) and I like Brian as a person quite a bit. But if you'd rather just write off everything I say as being "inside the Democratic bubble" that's your loss! :)

[Joe Taylor]

We smell blood, and not just in Fairfax.
http://hotair.com/archives/2011/09/26/obama-trails-romney-perry-in-virginia-poll/

[NotJohnSMosby]

I always love Republican overconfidence. Explain how Surovell and Bulova are in trouble. Seeing as Scott won his seat when it was an open seat in a Republican wave year, and then was made more Democratic due to gerrymandering in redistricting. The same for Dave, where the new lines for his seat are a few points more Democratic than they used to be. Explain how a blogger who has raised a whopping $30,000 and has nothing but some blog posts about his campaign is a serious contender against Bulova.

[GLou]

How are they not in trouble when $75K gets dropped into their races? Now who is being overconfident? The Bulova name will only take you so far. Say what you will about Chap, at least he has proved to be a work horse. Bulova wants this seat handed to him on a silver platter. Its a good thing the voters have a choice this time around.

[Isophorone]

Republicans don't always smell blood in Fairfax. Whenever Ben Tribbett visits from Arlington, we smell farts or rotten cheese.

[Stephen Spiker]

Not John, Bulova has only had one contested election, and he won with 52% of the vote with Tim Kaine on the top of the ballot. And his district was made a few points more Republican, not Democrat; he also lost half of his district, picking precincts both outside of the old 37th and outside of where his mother used to represent in Braddock.

If Bulova were challenegd in 2009, he would've lost easily, like Chuck Caputo did. The only thing holding the 37th back from being a top-tier campaign was fundraising, and the House Caucus has taken care of that.

[Stephen Spiker]

Sorry, not "a few points more" Republican, but slightly more Republican.

[Not Larry Sabato]

I think Bulova's district was made more Democratic. But the Democrats added were in lower income housing in Centreville- which also has much lower turnout. They replaced some Dem precincts like Mantua, Price, Pine Ridge, and Bonnie Brae with high incomes. Income level impacts turnout, so they basically made the district more Democratic, but also harder to turn out Dems in low turnout elections.

[Stephen Spiker]

I guess it depends on what numbers you're using, whether Obama '08 or an aggregate of multiple elections, or counting voters instead of vote percentages.

By my data, the 37th improved 0.6% in terms of Bob McDonnell's 2009 performance.

[Not Larry Sabato]

Yeah, if you use one election where Dems had depressed turnout, I'm sure the district is improved for the GOP- for exactly the reasons I noted above.

[EdtheManva]

I agree with Gretchen..for a change. As a Republican, I see no spin in her postings. Scott is a freshman Delegate..if the GOP is going to try to defeat him this is the time.

[GLou]

No one said Gretchen hates Republicans or is spinning. Gretchen just talks out of both sides of her mouth. Of course she believes the candidate she financially supported will prevail in November. But she also likes his opponent quite a bit. How could anyone disagree with anything she says when she doesn't really say anything.

As for Shoeneman just being a blogger, its unfortunate he doesn't have the vast experience David had when he first ran-being Sharon Bulova's son.

[GretchenLaskas]

I've supported, with time and money, lots of candidates that I knew wouldn't win (I used to live in Gainesville, for heaven's sake!) And I did so for the very reasons I stated above -- that doing so allows good candidates to build a party infrastructure that goes on to pay long term dividends.

And I have many friends who are Republicans, and while I don't agree with their political ideas, that doesn't mean we don't have a relationship beyond that. And I have supported many people who were Democrats with whom we had no other relationship other than that.

(shrug) It doesn't seem that strange or complicated to me, but obviously tastes differ.

[GLou]

Wow Gretchen, no wonder you're a novelist-you're prolific. So what you're saying is, at the ballot box, you only support Democrats? Like i said, try stepping outside the bubble. Shrug.

[NotJohnSMosby]

GLou,

When was the last time you didn't vote for the Republican on a ballot?

[GretchenLaskas]

GLou -- Prolific? This is nothing. I can talk MUCH faster than I can type! (And I type pretty fast.) :)

I've crossed party lines at the ballot box. Not all that often, I'll admit, especially in the past five years, but it does happen. I'm also sure it will happen again. But I make no bones about being a Dem partisan.

Not sure why I seem to push your buttons, but that's ok. This was a day where I could actually get on the blog with some regularity -- and it's always fun to do the back and forth!

[change]

I would agree with Gretch's and NJS's first posts...

[truthteller]

Agree with Gretchen. This is a wily move to tie up money and attention perhaps, since Surrovell is a leader of the progressive caucus and has been a major fundraiser within NOVA. However, taking on Surrovell comes with significant peril for the GOP as it will ratchet up Democratic GOTV in a number of Precincts where Puller needs high turnout.
Can't imagine Jeff Frederick particularly appreciates this as Surovell is a GOTV machine in this Democratic performing area and his opponent is not.

The money against Bulova makes more sense in terms of there being a more plausible path to an upset and drawing the attention of the Fairfax County Chairman. But it will also at least equally help Marsden to motivate Democratic voters to get to the polls in November by giving them extra reason to vote.

So it may be wise strategery from a House of Delegates point of view, but from a State Senate point of view it may prove to be at cross purposes with the bigger GOP effort.

[GLou]

Surovell has a GOTV machine after winning just one election? And how many precincts do Bulova and Marsden share? Do you listen to yourselves before blowing all this hot air?

NJSM, I voted for Obama in 2008 and we all would have been better of if Hillary prevailed. When was the last time you voted Republican?

Gretchen, who are you kidding, you're on all the blogs almost all the time. Looking forward to more of your double talk today.

[Loudoun Insider]

Come on, Gretchen, you know Brian Schoeneman is the best man for the job! Stop resisting it!

[Not Bubby]

GLou, I lawled at lieteller's post, too. Of course Surovell is no GOTV machine. Lieteller has a problem with honesty and with facts.

[GLou]

Perhaps NLS should just change the race outlooks to "Safe Bulova" and "Safe Surovell" to please the Democrat echo chamber on this thread. I'm simply articulating, as NLS'outlook suggests, that neither of these seats are safe and while a Barsa win may be unlikely, a Bulova loss may indeed be possible. When you aren't campaigning like you want the job and $75k gets dropped into your district, its not simply to bolster the outcome of the Senate race that shares less than a handful of precincts with your district.

As for senate races, has any caucus money been invested in those yet? Its nearly October....

[novamiddleman]

Ben has it right... both Ds will still win. Another opportunity to beat Bulova will flitter away.

We need to find the next R version of Chap Petersen to really start making waves. Basically someone with a lust for power who is willing to work his tail off to get elected.

[Loudoun Insider]

Is this the same novamiddleman from the old days??? If so, welcome back, I thought you moved out of state.

I still wouldn't count Brian Schoeneman out - he is working his tail off, but wants the job for the right reasons. I would hope that a "lust for power" (which does not describe Brian) is not a prerequisite.

[truthteller]

Surovell earned his reputation turning around a previously moribund South Fairfax Democratic establishment that couldn't beat the likes of Bolvin in what is now Sickles district and achieving massive Democratic turnouts in South Fairfax for Webb in 06 and Obama in 08. Look it up. There's a reason why he was elected FCDC Chairman and it wasn't for his gladhanding, it was because he rallied a previously moribund organization into a grassroots GOTV machine.

And quit with calling me lieteller, I could be lobbing nasty smears your way but that is beneath my dignity and despite what you say I also have too much integrity to do so.

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