Not Larry Sabato

Rebuilding Virginia Democrats Starts With Women

Across the country, Democrats are recruiting women candidates for key Congressional races in 2012 to draw a contrast with Republicans.  With record gender gaps and Republicans continuing to press social issues it's a no-brainer for Democrats.

So why isn't it happening here in Virginia?

For some reason in the last 15 years Democrats have moved away from women legislative candidates, especially in Northern Virginia.  Coming into this year, the NoVA women in the Senate were all from the 1991 (Janet Howell's first Senate race and Toddy Puller's successful House race) and 1995 (Mary Margaret Whipple and Patsy Ticer) cycles.  NoVA Senators elected this decade were all men (Chap Petersen, George Barker, Mark Herring and Dave Marsden).  Whipple and Ticer of course both retired this year, and while Whipple is being replaced with Barbara Favola, Ticer is being replaced by Adam Ebbin.  The once majority-female NoVA Democratic Senate delegation is now 8 men and 3 women.

But compare that to the Democrats in the House of Delegates and the Senate's record of electing women looks pretty good.

Let's start with the five Arlington/Alexandria House seats.  In 1997 Judy Connally retired, and Bob Brink took her place.  In 2003 when Karen Darner retired, Adam Ebbin took her place, and now Alfonso Lopez has that seat.  When Marian Van Landingham retired in 2005, David Englin took her seat.  That's three flips.  When Jim Almand retired, his seat went unopposed to Al Eisenberg in 2003 and when Eisenberg retired in 2009, five candidates announced and ran for his seat- all men.  The only seat to flip from a man to a woman was Brian Moran's seat in 2009 to Charniele Herring, but even that was only because Moran decided late to retire and the prohibitive favorite, Kerry Donley decided he couldn't run on short notice.

In Fairfax, women have fared a little better, but still are rarely asked to run.  Toddy Puller's House seat went to Kristen Amundson for a decade, but when she retired, Scott Surovell won the nomination without a challenge.  After Gladys Keating lost her seat in 1999, Mark Sickles took the nomination in the next cycle.  The only two Democratic women in Fairfax elected recently were Kaye Kory (who did so by challenging an incumbent- not being selected) and Eileen Filler-Corn who ran unsuccessfully in 1999 against Jim Dillard and was passed over for Dave Marsden in 2005 when Dillard retired, only to finally get her shot when Marsden went to the Senate in 2010. 

So what exactly is going on here and why are NoVA Democrats struggling to recruit women to run?

Meanwhile, the GOP is making gains in Northern Virginia in the House of Delegates with many of their incumbents having never faced a woman (or at least not recently).  There are a number of districts where Democrats should be focusing on recruiting a viable female candidate which include:

Tom Rust:  Rust won by less than 10% in 2007 and 2009 over Jay Donahue and Stevens Miller but has not faced a woman challenger since he was elected to this seat in 2001.

Tag Greason:  Greason won this seat from incumbent David Poisson in 2009 then got a pass this year from Democrats for re-election.  Greason is best known for having been accused while in the army of masturbating next to a sleeping female subordinate and ejaculating after she woke up- then being offered a baby wipe to clean up.  Think a woman could draw a contrast here? 

Rich Anderson:  Narrowly defeated incumbent Paul Nichols in 2009 and then got a pass from Democrats in 2011.  This seat was held by a GOP woman before Nichols (Michelle McQuigg) and Prince William County women have won or held numerous local Supervisor and School Board seats that overlap with this district.

Scott Lingamfelter:  Scott hasn't faced a woman in the ten years he has been in the legislature.  Given his general attitude (similar to most VMI grads in his age range) and demeanor he would likely have a lot of problems with a female challenger.

Jim LeMunyon:  LeMunyon beat incumbent Chuck Caputo here in 2009 and then challenger Eric Clingan in 2011.  Democrats have had a ready made candidate here for a while in local school board member Kathy Smith, but haven't yet recruited her to run.   She's probably the only person who could seriously challenge LeMunyon in 2013.

Dave Albo:  Despite being in office since 1993, Albo hasn't faced a female challenger since his first race.  Will twenty years without a female challenger here be enough to find one in 2013?

Bob Marshall:  An obvious choice for a female challenger, Marshall hasn't faced once since Denise Oppenhagan ran in 1999.

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It's pretty obvious that Virginia Democrats (especially in Northern Virginia) better start looking at their own failures in recruiting women to run for office more closely.  Any strategy to begin making up lost ground to the GOP will rely on recruitment of younger female candidates in swing districts.

Mac And Cheese

What???  I didn't know there were people who didn't eat Mac and Cheese at the holidays!

BRIAN MORAN BEGS FCDC FOR HIS JOB

A little DPVA news tonight out of Fairfax, as Brian Moran showed up to FCDC trying to convince Democrats in the largest county in Virginia that he should keep his job as Chairman of the DPVA.

While Moran did not address his position as President of the "for-profit college" industry that is fighting against education reforms pressed for by President Barack Obama, he did address one issue swirling around him:  candidate recruitment.

Moran claimed to the assembled Democrats that the reason we didn't have many Democratic candidates around Virginia this year was the districts were drawn to be too Republican and we would "not be fielding" Democrats there.

Needless to say, my email box was lighting up after this meeting.  Moran was speaking to the wrong county committee when he made these claims.

In Fairfax, Moran allowed two state legislative candidates to run without Democratic opposition.  Tim Hugo would be very difficult to defeat in his district, but Moran also allowed Tom Rust to run without Democratic opposition.  Rust's district was carried by Barack Obama, Mark Warner, Jody Wagner and Steve Shannon in 2008/2009 and performed 14 points better in margin that the state for Creigh Deeds.  Local Democratic turncoat Stevens Miller even got 46% here in 2009 versus Rust.

I'm not surprised that Moran lied to FCDC to try to save his own hide- but I am surprised that he did so in such a stupid way.  Why would you claim in a county with a heavily Democratic seat that went uncontested that only strong GOP seats were left unopposed?  Is Moran this stupid, or just so arrogant that he thought no one in the crowd noticed?

If Moran doesn't resign soon, I suggest we all begin planning for the 2012 state convention in Fairfax and trying to ensure a resolution strongly backing President Obama's fight against the for-profit colleges is passed by the convention.  That seems to be the best route to begin alerting the public to the fraud that is currently serving as Chairman of the DPVA.

Liberty Allows Guns On Campus

Even for Liberty standards this is incredibly stupid.

Donald McEachin Makes Some History

I've been looking into this since Donald McEachin was elected Democratic Caucus Chair last week, and it appears that Donald is now the highest ranking African American in the last 50 years in the Virginia Senate- perhaps the highest ranking ever. 

Congratulations to Donald for making history- and to the Democratic Caucus for an excellent choice as Caucus Chair.

HOW MANY TIMES DO WE HAVE TO SAY THIS

DO NOT DO A CANDIDATE VIDEO IF YOU DON'T KNOW HOW.

DO NOT DO A CANDIDATE VIDEO IF YOU DON'T KNOW HOW.

DO NOT DO A CANDIDATE VIDEO IF YOU DON'T KNOW HOW.

House Democrats Continue Melt Down

Every time you think the freak show that is the Virginia House Democratic Caucus couldn't get worse... well it does.

I'm hearing from good sources that Onzlee Ware is saying he has 14 solid commitments to be the new Democratic Caucus Chairman and that with only 27 of the 32 members planning to attend the meeting next week, that 14 votes is enough to win.

This is the same Onzlee who split with Roanoke Democrats to support a slate of Independent candidates for Roanoke City Council in 2008 and helped defeat the entire slate of Democratic nominees.

This is also the same Onzlee who was once caught dealing heroin and only had charges dropped when he became a police informant.  No, I'm not kidding.

The same Onzlee who went to France and Canada on trips paid for by Virginia Uranium.

Finally, the same Onzlee who was scorned by watchdog groups for his campaign finance reports that showed lavish spending on personal items such as trips to expensive bed and breakfasts that were unrelated to his campaign.

I could go on and on, but that seems like more than enough.

If in fact this is true, and Sickles or Surovell don't have the votes to stop Onzlee... then there will need to be a real discussion on whether donors and activists should work with the House Democratic Leadership or go rogue and begin moving operations outside of the traditional structures.

Ken Plum Not Seeking Caucus Chairmanship Again

After being responsible for a total of 33* (yes you read that right) lost House of Delegates seats in his tenure as DPVA Chairman and House Democratic Caucus Chair, Ken Plum has decided partisan politics is not for him and he wants to focus on policy.

Plum has actually lost more seats in the House (33*) while in leadership than Democrats currently have (32).

* Plum served as DPVA Chair in 1999, when Democrats lost four seats they controlled going into that year, leading to a total GOP takeover of the House and the 2001 redistricting that cost the Democrats another 14 seats that year.  Plum was forced out by Mark Warner before he got to the 2001 election day, but was still responsible for that years losses from the redistricting mess he created in 1999.  In 2009, House Democrats lost 8 incumbents, and this year House Democrats lost another 7 seats they had controlled thanks to redistricting and poor candidate recruitment.

Leadership for House Democrats

Democrats in the House of Delegates have been reduced to their most irrelevant number ever at 32 members.  Now, with their leader Ward Armstrong having been defeated for re-election they are selecting new leadership to try to pick up the pieces and return them to relevancy.

The biggest players in this are the black caucus (13 of 32 votes) and the NoVA Delegation (15 of 32 votes).  Charniele Herring and Luke Torian are the only two members who are in both of those two blocks, so they are extra important in all of this.  Of the remaining six members, two are white Democrats in majority-minority districts (Joe Morrissey and Betsy Carr), while Democrats now only represent four downstate districts that are not majority minority (David Toscano, Lynwood Lewis, Johnny Joannou and Joe Johnson).

Here's how the leadership races are breaking out:

For Floor Leader

The frontrunner is David Toscano.  Backed with some split NoVA support in the back yard of his opposition, Toscano has the clearest road to a majority if he can win support in the black caucus.

Mark Sickles is close behind Toscano, but has hurt himself with his strong conservadem leanings and split NoVA delegation.  He'll need to sweep (or come close to sweeping) the black caucus to win.

Meanwhile after being involved in two major losses in a row, House Democratic Caucus Chairman Ken Plum is throwing his hat in for leader.  This seems like a "better to lose moving up than to be defeated for my current position" type of move. Can Plum even find someone to second him at the meeting?

Meanwhile...

Scott Surovell has started campaigning for Caucus Chair.  He might be in over his head as he enters his 2nd term- but this position is about a long term rebuilding of the Democrats in the House.  Scott is well suited for that if he can be more flexible in his dealings with older members in the House.

Contesting Surovell is no one yet- but rumors are that Sickles will try to drop back for the #2 position if he does not win the Floor Leader vote.

This vote is coming up as soon as next weekend at the Democratic retreat, so we'll update as soon as more information becomes available.

The Future of The Virginia Senate

With the results in, now is a good time to re-examine the Democrats redistricting map from earlier this year and check back on how it worked and where it leaves the party for the next 10 years.

The premise of the first map Democrats released was to put 23 seats in play (the 22 currently held by Democrats and an open seat in the Richmond suburbs) and give 17 very safe seats to Republicans.  This map was designed to please the current Democratic Senate incumbents- and was not designed as a 10 year plan to hold the Senate in the 2011, 2015 and 2019 elections it would be used in.  Even as weak as the initial plan was for long term Democratic prospects, Governor Bob McDonnell vetoed the plan and demanded changes.  The Governor was more focused on short term politics- while the map left a lot of vulnerabilities over the decade it might have worked for 2011 only- which was the only thing the Governor serving through 2013 really cared about.  In response, to continue pleasing their 22 incumbents, Democrats agreed to the map moving their open Democratic-leaning Richmond seat to a GOP-leaning area running from Lynchburg to Louisa in central Virginia.  Looking back on 2011, that was the moment the Senate of Virginia went to the Republicans.

One of the main problems with the Democratic map, was it made too many seats similar in "DPI" (Democratic Performance Index) in Northern Virginia.  Downstate the districts were actually drawn pretty well for the Democratic incumbents.  But the error in the Northern Virginia draw turned into a huge money black hole for Democrats.  For example: 

Hundreds of thousands needed to be spent to prop up Barbara Favola in a formerly safe seat VA-31 that had added in some GOP areas in Fairfax and Loudoun.  She won, but that seat which had been a "donor" seat for Democrats in 2007 (more spent from it than spent on it) turned into a black hole this time.

The same thing happened in VA-36 where Toddy Puller's new district needed hundreds of thousands of dollars in spending to defend her from former Delegate Jeff Frederick.  Again, VA-36 which had been a "donor" seat in 2007 turned into a money hole for Democrats.

On the other hand, the NoVA seats that were improved for the incumbents were not improved enough to deter strong GOP challenges that led to very expensive campaigns:

Chuck Colgan ran in a district redrawn to go from his base in Manassas down to strongly Democratic Dale City in Prince William.  Compared to the district he won twice in the last decade, this should have been an easy win.  Instead, Colgan was forced into a tight race with formerly unknown challenger Tom Gordy.  Once again, hundreds of thousands of dollars were spent to prop up Colgan- while the Chairman of Senate Finance called up other Senators for money.  Pathetic.

George Lincoln Barker (I'm still giggling every time I type that) drew his own seat and added precincts in strongly Democratic Alexandria.  But his weak constituent service led to strongly reduced numbers in his existing precincts in Fairfax and Prince William, and he was forced into a huge battle with Miller Baker.  Barker was the one incumbent who leadership on both sides of the Senate predicted would lose one week out, but thanks to strong GOTV from the Alexandria Democrats he survived this cycle.  In the process he spent nearly a million dollars of money that could have gone elsewhere.

Dave Marsden had his district improved with some strongly GOP precincts in Sully taken out, and Democratic areas in Annandale added to his district.  Again, the improvements to the district were not enough to deter a strong GOP fight, and Marsden spent over half a million dollars to defend this seat.

Overall, Democrats spent over $3,000,000 to defend seats in Northern Virginia by enlarging the map here.  And that doesn't even count the potential future battlegrounds in the seats held by Mark Herring and Chap Petersen that didn't require big investments this year because of the strong incumbents.

The reality was straightforward- in four downstate districts (Houck, Reynolds, Puckett and Miller) the improvements that could be made for the incumbents were only helpful- never enough to guarantee the seats.  They would always need to be strongly funded in order to save a Democratic majority.  While all received huge help from Senate Democrats, the wasted money from the failed NoVA strategy cost all of them an opportunity to be up on the air earlier and define their opponents.  Puckett and Miller found a way to win anyway, while Houck and Reynolds were not as lucky.

Now going forward Senate Democrats face the worst possible scenario. 

The Houck and Reynolds seats were places that Democrats were only close in because of extremely strong, long serving incumbents.  By 2015, these two losses won't even be on the map for Democratic pick up opportunities.  Meanwhile, the other 18 GOP seats were all made to be safe for the GOP incumbents.

Uh Oh, that's 20 Republicans already.

Meanwhile, here's what the Democrats face over the next 10 years:

Chuck Colgan is 85 and his seat will likely flip to the GOP when he leaves it open sometime this decade.

Chap Petersen may run statewide, and his central Fairfax seat was redrawn to include new GOP areas in western Fairfax.  In a special election, this will be a possible Democratic hold, but a tough one, especially if the GOP gets a top-tier candidate like Fairfax City Mayor Rob Lederer.

Mark Herring is the strongest Loudoun Democrat, but scored just 54% against the extremely weak Patricia Phillips.  This is going to be a very tough hold for Democrats in 2015 unless something big changes in Loudoun- and will be even more uphill if Herring moves up to higher office and a special election is called here.

Republicans failed to recruit an "A" list challenger to John Miller, yet he was still forced into a very tough race on the Peninsula this year.  He will continue to face tough challenges in 2015 and 2019.

Surviving the wave this year was Phil Puckett.  But southwest Virginia is turning more red every year with no signs of a turnaround soon.  How much longer can he hang on here?  If he leaves the seat open in 2015 or 2019 is there any hopes of a Democratic hold? 

Toddy Puller got by Jeff Frederick this year, but what happens when she leaves the seat open in 2015 or 2019?  Once again, Jeff will be back, and the Democrats will be in a huge battle to hold this seat.

George Barker and Dave Marsden will both continue to face tough re-elections in their seats, even with the gerrymandered improvements to them.  In Marsden's case, a challenger from the Annandale/Burke area would be very concerning to him. For Barker, if he continues to lose numbers with his constituent service in his existing precincts, he will continue to have problems holding this one.

Barbara Favola lost Fairfax and Loudoun, even with a strong ticketmate in those areas in Pamela Danner.  Throw in a strong Arlington challenger like David Foster and this seat will be tightly contested once again.

Finally, don't forget about Ralph Northam, who has been an excellent fit for his district and won easily on Tuesday.  If he were to leave that seat open in 2015 or 2019, it would be a huge problem for Democrats.

In short, the Republicans have 20 pretty safe seats, while the Democrats have 10, with potential problems in the other 10 as they open up or the GOP finds stronger challengers.

Get ready for a long ten years thanks to this redistricting map.