Leadership for House Democrats

Democrats in the House of Delegates have been reduced to their most irrelevant number ever at 32 members.  Now, with their leader Ward Armstrong having been defeated for re-election they are selecting new leadership to try to pick up the pieces and return them to relevancy.

The biggest players in this are the black caucus (13 of 32 votes) and the NoVA Delegation (15 of 32 votes).  Charniele Herring and Luke Torian are the only two members who are in both of those two blocks, so they are extra important in all of this.  Of the remaining six members, two are white Democrats in majority-minority districts (Joe Morrissey and Betsy Carr), while Democrats now only represent four downstate districts that are not majority minority (David Toscano, Lynwood Lewis, Johnny Joannou and Joe Johnson).

Here's how the leadership races are breaking out:

For Floor Leader

The frontrunner is David Toscano.  Backed with some split NoVA support in the back yard of his opposition, Toscano has the clearest road to a majority if he can win support in the black caucus.

Mark Sickles is close behind Toscano, but has hurt himself with his strong conservadem leanings and split NoVA delegation.  He'll need to sweep (or come close to sweeping) the black caucus to win.

Meanwhile after being involved in two major losses in a row, House Democratic Caucus Chairman Ken Plum is throwing his hat in for leader.  This seems like a "better to lose moving up than to be defeated for my current position" type of move. Can Plum even find someone to second him at the meeting?

Meanwhile...

Scott Surovell has started campaigning for Caucus Chair.  He might be in over his head as he enters his 2nd term- but this position is about a long term rebuilding of the Democrats in the House.  Scott is well suited for that if he can be more flexible in his dealings with older members in the House.

Contesting Surovell is no one yet- but rumors are that Sickles will try to drop back for the #2 position if he does not win the Floor Leader vote.

This vote is coming up as soon as next weekend at the Democratic retreat, so we'll update as soon as more information becomes available.

Comments

[James Young]

Interesting. I have no handle on this, but it seems to me (I know, I know: why take advice from someone who doesn't wish you well?) if Virginia Democrats want to be anything MORE than irrelevant, they should be looking to someone like my old friend Lyn Lewis (H-SC '84). Electing a moonbat might make 2013 look even worse than 2011.

[Ghost of Henry Howell]

surovell is a very bad man.

[Ghost of RWR]

First, the Democrats in the House have a real problem. They have very little experience and worse yet, no central galvanizing issue except “stop the GOP” from whatever.

Second, Obama is not helping them in Virginia, Webb is gone, and Warner is frankly too pragmatic to be partisan.

Third, whoever steps up to be the minority leader in the House will be a target politically and will necessarily have to be fairly strident to “rally the base”. Armstrong was never very good at this because he was not a liberal. As a result, whoever emerges will probably be fairly liberal. This rules out many of the few pragmatic folks in the minority caucus who want to actually work on legislation as opposed to debating winless propositions.

Fourth, the Black Caucus was really disappointed with how many Democrats ran away from Obama. They will require that whoever emerges will be a solid supporter of Obama.

So look for their choice to be (1) liberal), (2) in a “safe” seat, (3) of no consequence legislatively, and (4) a big Obama spokesman. Nothing less. And, by the way, exactly what the GOP wants to deal with on the floor.

[Will Radle]

Have you thought of any Democrat outside Fairfax County, if not NoVa?

Seriously, another NoVa Dem is not going to succeed in expanding the base into RoVa.

I like Surovell.

[Will Radle]

Go Toscano-Surovell!

[just the facts]

Love all the right wingers offering us advice. But seriously, let me make this perfectly clear... You wouldn't listen to our picks as to who should lead your party, so don't mind us if we totally ignore your advice as to who should lead the Democrats....

[RoanokeDemocrat]

Technically, Ware's district is not minority-majority. So five Democrats downstate represent non-minority-majority districts.

[James Young]

I recognized precisely that, "just the facts." Just as long as you recognize that the converse is true, and that it never stops Dems from offering unsolicited --- but all too frequently followed --- advice to the GOP.

[Wow]

Surovell knows the commonwealth much much more than anyone that I have had an experience meeting in dem politics. But the challenge for any caucus chair is to get out and meet dems across the state start from scratch and get some freakin D on the ballot for gods sake! It won't be easy but using the governor race in 2013. Will help the dems. The state ain't gonna elect a crazy Cuch and booking is widely unknown... Terry mc will bring it to the rep and will pull in independent voters

[James Young]

And, of course, "Wow," Virginia Dems will have the advantage of the Commonwealth's cyclical counter to national politics when President Barry gets his a** kicked out of office. Don't forget that one, too!

[Steve Vaughan]

Well one advantage they have is that the state isn't 68% Republican. In the normal swing of things they'll probably start regaining seats at a rate of about 2-4 per cycle. Problem is that still leaves them well short of the majority when redistricting comes again in 10 years and the GOP puts them back at square 1. I'd pick somebody who's going to be there a long time, has a lot of energy and a totally safe seat. And isn't from NOVA. McClelland fits the bill.

[James Young]

You're right, Steve; it's somewhere between 57% (total GOP Senate vote) and 61% (total GOP House vote) Republican. At least, the case can be made.

[NotJohnSMosby]

The real purpose of the Dem House Caucus chair is to raise money for House candidates, and recruit candidates. That's why it's been a NoVA delegate the last several cycles. I don't think you're going to raise much money in Roanoke, and won't recruit candidates any better either. Ken raised quite a bit of money the last several elections, so from that perspective did ok as Caucus Chair.

[Steve Vaughan]

JY_ If you count the vote in uncontested races. Which doesn't tell us much.

[buy thesis]

lost House of Delegates seats in his tenure as DPVA Chairman