Stunning news out of the Republican Party of Virginia over the last 48 hours, as numerous GOP Presidential candidates (Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, Michelle Bachmann, Jon Huntsman and Rick Santorum) all fail to make the Virginia Primary Ballot.
Voters will now have a choice between Mitt Romney and Ron Paul.
Getting all of the leading GOP candidates on the ballot is a responsibility of the state Republican party when they elect to have a statewide primary instead of a caucus/convention system. Now Pat Mullins as RPV Chairman has made a mockery of his own Presidential primary.
Instead, over ten thousand people will need to be hired at taxpayer expense to run a primary that only includes Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. The cost to taxpayers will be well over $2,000,000, maybe even more.
Now the question turns to what supporters of other GOP candidates will do. Or Democrats. Will the "stop Romney" movement result in a Ron Paul Revolution in Virginia?
I'm really getting tired of these winner take-all firehouse primaries with big candidate fields. "Firehouse primary" is really just a fancy term for an un-assembled caucus- when an assembled caucus (i.e. a convention) can be much more balanced in selecting a party nominee. Candidates only have to appeal to a narrow window of people to win a firehouse primary. Whatever happened to a convention where someone needed to get 50% of the vote to win? Isn't the best nominee the person who can bring the largest coalition behind their candidacies?
I understand the advantages of a real primary versus a convention, but why go for an un-assembled caucus over an assembled caucus? This kind of thinking is so weird to me.
Over the next few months, we will be taking a look back at the 2011 results in key legislative races across Virginia. Kicking that off today is a look at the battle in the 38th Senate District between incumbent Phil Puckett and challenger Adam Light. The 38th district runs across the northern half of southwest Virginia which includes almost all of Virginia's coal country. There has been a large political split in southwest Virginia for the last four decades between these northern coal counties, and the counties that run along the Tennessee border to the south that are represented by retiring Senator William Wamplerin the Senate (and in January by Bill Carrico) . But times have changed and President Obama was swept to defeat in all of southwest Virginia in 2008, followed by huge GOP landslides in the 9th district for Bob McDonnell, Bill Bolling and Ken Cuccinelli in 2009. By 2010 even Rick Boucher- seen as politically invincible only a few years ago- had been swept out of office, leaving Puckett as the highest ranking Democrat still in office in this region. With control of the Senate at stake, and Democrats crumbling in this region the 38th District race became one of the most important and targeted races in Virginia.
The results:
Phil Puckett 26,339 (53.0%) Adam Light 23,328 (47.0%)
This was an impressive hold for the Democrats, and it shows how voters in Republican trending Southwest Virginia are still willing to vote for local Democrats, even if they don't like national Democrats right now. That having been said, this is a district that is very different from other parts of western Virginia and even the 9th Congressional district (Rick Boucher won this district 51-49 in 2010 while losing the overall Congressional).
There are eight counties or cities that are located entirely within the 38th Senate District. Here's how Rick Boucher did in each of them in 2010 versus Barack Obama's numbers in each in 2008:
BLAND COUNTY- McCain by 39.4%, Griffith by 16.6% BLAND COUNTY SWING- 22.8% to Boucher
BUCHANAN COUNTY- McCain by 5.5%, Boucher by 14.8% BUCHANAN COUNTY SWING- 20.3% to Boucher
DICKENSON COUNTY- McCain by 0.7%, Boucher by 17.8% DICKENSON COUNTY SWING- 18.5% to Boucher
PULASKI COUNTY- McCain by 19.5%, Griffith by 1.3% PULASKI COUNTY SWING- 18.2% to Boucher
RUSSELL COUNTY- McCain by 12.7%, Boucher by 8.4% RUSSELL COUNTY SWING- 21.1% to Boucher
TAZEWELL COUNTY- McCain by 32.9%, Griffith by 19.7% TAZEWELL COUNTY SWING- 13.2% to Boucher
NORTON CITY- McCain by 0.1%, Boucher by 19.4% NORTON CITY SWING- 19.5% to Boucher
RADFORD CITY- Obama by 9.4%, Boucher by 15.0% RADFORD CITY SWING- 5.6% to Boucher
The outlier of that group is Radford which saw a huge turnout from Radford University in the 2008 Presidential election, skewing the 08 results there towards Democrats. Every other locality is in the same approximate range of swing from the Presidential to the Congressional in 08 (Griffith over-performed a little in Tazewell, Boucher over-performed a little in Bland and Russell). That's why Morgan Griffith was able to be successful. In the past, Boucher's results wouldn't at all match with Democratic Presidential numbers, but in 2010 you can see how Boucher runs into a wall after about 20% of voters crossover to him. In the past, Boucher had no such cap on his support. Hence, Morgan wins.
Now, let's look at the 2010 results versus the 2011 results in the counties most influenced by coal and the UMW:
BUCHANAN COUNTY- Boucher wins by 14.8%, Puckett wins by 22.9% BUCHANAN COUNTY SWING- 8.1% to Puckett
RUSSELL COUNTY- Boucher wins by 8.4%, Puckett wins by 19.7% RUSSELL COUNTY SWING- 11.3% to Puckett
TAZEWELL COUNTY- Griffith wins by 19.7%, Light wins by 4.1% TAZEWELL COUNTY SWING- 15.6% to Puckett
Given that Puckett is from Russell and Light is from Tazewell, these results are especially striking. Voters in the coal counties were able to see a clear break between the federal issues that doomed Boucher and his traditional huge margins here and the Virginia Senate election. Puckett added big numbers in these three counties (which make up 50% of the district's population) thanks to TV ads like this:
And also ads like this:
Put those big increased Democratic margins in coal counties on top of Boucher already having a tiny majority here in 2010, and Puckett was looking strong. But Light was able to match or improve upon GOP numbers in the rest of the district:
BLAND COUNTY- Griffith wins by 16.6%, Light wins by 16.3% BLAND COUNTY SWING- 0.3% to Puckett
DICKENSON COUNTY- Boucher wins by 17.8%, Puckett wins by 16.1% DICKENSON COUNTY SWING- 1.7% to Light
PULASKI COUNTY- Griffith wins by 1.3%, Light wins by 11.7% PULASKI COUNTY SWING- 10.4% to Light
SMYTH COUNTY (split county, only including precincts in 38th Senate) Boucher wins by 10.4%, Puckett wins by 4.6% SMYTH COUNTY SWING- 5.8% to Light
WISE COUNTY (split county, only including precincts in 38th Senate) Boucher wins by 10.6%, Light wins by 1.8% WISE COUNTY SWING- 12.4% to Light
NORTON CITY- Boucher wins by 19.4%, Puckett wins by 8.5% NORTON CITY SWING- 10.9% to Light
RADFORD CITY- Boucher wins by 15.0%, Puckett wins by 9.6% RADFORD CITY SWING- 5.4% to Light
The swings to Light appear to be Republicans who were crossover votes for Boucher coming home in 2011. That speaks more to Boucher's strengths all over the 9th district, not Puckett weaknesses. It is worth noting though- those swings to Light would have been enough for him to defeat Puckett if he had only held Griffith's vote percentage in the three major coal counties.
This Democratic victory came from coal miners and coal interests and should be a good reminder to Democrats in other parts of Virginia that they can still compete here with the right candidates and issues.
IN 2013 FIELD? Pete Snyder, the director of Virginia Victory 2012 (and my former boss) is leaving New Media Strategies to head up a new venture. Congrats Pete!
But that's not all. Politico reports Pete may be running for the GOP nomination for Lt. Governor in Virginia in 2013. Pete would be an extremely formidable candidate if he decides to run, so stay tuned.
Governor McDonnell announced his plans to deal with the VRS (Virginia Retirement System) shortfall today and it isn't a pretty picture for counties, cities or homeowners in Virginia.
McDonnell is proposing a 2.21 billion dollar payment to VRS this year, the largest in state history. That sounds good on the surface... but... read the fine print in his proposal.
McDonnell's 2.21 billion dollar payment is actually the combined payments of the state and local governments into VRS. The state mandates what local governments have to pay into VRS for their teachers that are included in the system. (Most other local government employees have their own systems). The biggest increase in payments into VRS are actually mandates to local governments to pay- not state money.
Given that Virginia has capped personal property tax revenue to localities through the "no car tax" plan from the 1990's, that gives local governments only two options to meet this massive unfunded state mandate- raising property taxes or slashing county spending on schools, police, fire, parks and other local needs.
The state's pension system is a disaster from the General Assembly underfunding it- but the way to make up that money is by Virginia coming up with the money. Passing the buck on to localities to make up when they already have limited ways to raise revenue is a terrible plan- and needs to be defeated.
