Recap of 38th Senate District

Over the next few months, we will be taking a look back at the 2011 results in key legislative races across Virginia.  Kicking that off today is a look at the battle in the 38th Senate District between incumbent Phil Puckett and challenger Adam Light.  The 38th district runs across the northern half of southwest Virginia which includes almost all of Virginia's coal country.  There has been a large political split in southwest Virginia for the last four decades between these northern coal counties, and the counties that run along the Tennessee border to the south that are represented by retiring Senator William Wampler in the Senate (and in January by Bill Carrico) .  But times have changed and President Obama was swept to defeat in all of southwest Virginia in 2008, followed by huge GOP landslides in the 9th district for Bob McDonnell, Bill Bolling and Ken Cuccinelli in 2009.  By 2010 even Rick Boucher- seen as politically invincible only a few years ago- had been swept out of office, leaving Puckett as the highest ranking Democrat still in office in this region.  With control of the Senate at stake, and Democrats crumbling in this region the 38th District race became one of the most important and targeted races in Virginia.

The results:

Phil Puckett 26,339 (53.0%)
Adam Light 23,328 (47.0%)

This was an impressive hold for the Democrats, and it shows how voters in Republican trending Southwest Virginia are still willing to vote for local Democrats, even if they don't like national Democrats right now.  That having been said, this is a district that is very different from other parts of western Virginia and even the 9th Congressional district (Rick Boucher won this district 51-49 in 2010 while losing the overall Congressional). 

There are eight counties or cities that are located entirely within the 38th Senate District.  Here's how Rick Boucher did in each of them in 2010 versus Barack Obama's numbers in each in 2008:

BLAND COUNTY- McCain by 39.4%, Griffith by 16.6%
BLAND COUNTY SWING- 22.8% to Boucher

BUCHANAN COUNTY- McCain by 5.5%, Boucher by 14.8%
BUCHANAN COUNTY SWING- 20.3% to Boucher

DICKENSON COUNTY- McCain by 0.7%, Boucher by 17.8%
DICKENSON COUNTY SWING- 18.5% to Boucher

PULASKI COUNTY- McCain by 19.5%, Griffith by 1.3%
PULASKI COUNTY SWING- 18.2% to Boucher

RUSSELL COUNTY- McCain by 12.7%, Boucher by 8.4%
RUSSELL COUNTY SWING- 21.1% to Boucher

TAZEWELL COUNTY- McCain by 32.9%, Griffith by 19.7%
TAZEWELL COUNTY SWING- 13.2% to Boucher

NORTON CITY- McCain by 0.1%, Boucher by 19.4%
NORTON CITY SWING- 19.5% to Boucher

RADFORD CITY- Obama by 9.4%, Boucher by 15.0%
RADFORD CITY SWING- 5.6% to Boucher

The outlier of that group is Radford which saw a huge turnout from Radford University in the 2008 Presidential election, skewing the 08 results there towards Democrats.  Every other locality is in the same approximate range of swing from the Presidential to the Congressional in 08 (Griffith over-performed a little in Tazewell, Boucher over-performed a little in Bland and Russell).  That's why Morgan Griffith was able to be successful.   In the past, Boucher's results wouldn't at all match with Democratic Presidential numbers, but in 2010 you can see how Boucher runs into a wall after about 20% of voters crossover to him.  In the past, Boucher had no such cap on his support.  Hence, Morgan wins.

Now, let's look at the 2010 results versus the 2011 results in the counties most influenced by coal and the UMW:

BUCHANAN COUNTY- Boucher wins by 14.8%, Puckett wins by 22.9%
BUCHANAN COUNTY SWING- 8.1% to Puckett

RUSSELL COUNTY- Boucher wins by 8.4%, Puckett wins by 19.7%
RUSSELL COUNTY SWING- 11.3% to Puckett

TAZEWELL COUNTY- Griffith wins by 19.7%, Light wins by 4.1%
TAZEWELL COUNTY SWING- 15.6% to Puckett

Given that Puckett is from Russell and Light is from Tazewell, these results are especially striking.  Voters in the coal counties were able to see a clear break between the federal issues that doomed Boucher and his traditional huge margins here and the Virginia Senate election.  Puckett added big numbers in these three counties (which make up 50% of the district's population) thanks to TV ads like this:

And also ads like this:

Put those big increased Democratic margins in coal counties on top of Boucher already having a tiny majority here in 2010, and Puckett was looking strong.  But Light was able to match or improve upon GOP numbers in the rest of the district:

BLAND COUNTY- Griffith wins by 16.6%, Light wins by 16.3%
BLAND COUNTY SWING- 0.3% to Puckett

DICKENSON COUNTY- Boucher wins by 17.8%, Puckett wins by 16.1%
DICKENSON COUNTY SWING- 1.7% to Light

PULASKI COUNTY- Griffith wins by 1.3%, Light wins by 11.7%
PULASKI COUNTY SWING- 10.4% to Light

SMYTH COUNTY (split county, only including precincts in 38th Senate)
Boucher wins by 10.4%, Puckett wins by 4.6%
SMYTH COUNTY SWING- 5.8% to Light

WISE COUNTY (split county, only including precincts in 38th Senate)
Boucher wins by 10.6%, Light wins by 1.8%
WISE COUNTY SWING- 12.4% to Light

NORTON CITY- Boucher wins by 19.4%, Puckett wins by 8.5%
NORTON CITY SWING- 10.9% to Light

RADFORD CITY- Boucher wins by 15.0%, Puckett wins by 9.6%
RADFORD CITY SWING- 5.4% to Light

The swings to Light appear to be Republicans who were crossover votes for Boucher coming home in 2011.  That speaks more to Boucher's strengths all over the 9th district, not Puckett weaknesses. It is worth noting though- those swings to Light would have been enough for him to defeat Puckett if he had only held Griffith's vote percentage in the three major coal counties.

 This Democratic victory came from coal miners and coal interests and should be a good reminder to Democrats in other parts of Virginia that they can still compete here with the right candidates and issues.

Comments

[Janet Pride]

Hey Ben...you hear about Sam Rasoul?
http://www.roanoke.com/politics/wb/302453

[SpotsyDem]

Ben, are you accusing the Puckett campaign of mobilizing illegal underage voters to win?! This is a scandal!!!

"This Democratic victory came from coal *minors* and coal interests and should be a good reminder to Democrats in other parts of Virginia that they can still compete here with the right candidates and issues."

On a more serious note, it would be helpful to look at the performance of Presley in District 3 and Langrehr in District 12 to get an idea of how possible it is to find a "right candidate" who isn't an entrenched incumbent with years of good will to draw on.

A lot of this district was the 6th before redistricting. That district was competitive throughout the decade, but at the end of the decade it clearly started to shift to the Republicans. It didn't help that newer candidates didn't have the depth of service like Keister to draw on. The problem for Democrats is that it's harder and harder to find the "right candidate" in these areas.

[Not Larry Sabato]

Spotsy Dem- good catch on the typo. Will fix that.

I don't think Presley or Langrehr are great for comparing because of how widely outspent they were. That's because of a dysfunctional House Democratic Caucus. So who knows how they do with a real campaign like Puckett had.

[Will Radle]

Interested to know whom Adam Light was trying to persuade when he said, "Things like Social Security, Medicaid, Medicare: it is time to start phasing them out."

The plan I wrote keeps our promise to Americans and our families who work hard week after week, day after day. Make Social Security and Medicare solvent and sustainable. The plan I wrote is the only comprehensive economic and fiscal plan Representative James Moran ever submitted to the Congressional Budget Office for analysis in his time - over 20 years - on Capitol Hill.

We will move our nation forward together.

[Flipper]

The other piece you left out of this is turnout. In 2010 the coalfield counties -- which Boucher mostly won -- saw depressed turnout as miners largely stayed home.

[Andrew]

What Ben said about the House candidates is true all over the state.

What was specifically toxic about that Langrehr race was not just the money, but the candidate. I didn't realize this at the time, and I wish we'd seen this problem earlier, but Langrehr was apparently a turn off for non-Blacksburg MontCo and Giles voters for stopping the Wal-Mart in town limits. Blacksburgers might have liked it, but when you live in the far-flung parts of the county or in Giles where there's no big stores and the BBurg one would have been convenient for you, you probably didn't appreciate someone shutting that down to "preserve the unique character" of a town full of college kids.

Also, why are we talking about the 12th in relation to Puckett's district? They are very, very different. The 12th is much more friendly to Dems normally, even in the new boundaries. It should be one of the first 3 seats the Dems target in 2013. I doubt that's the case anywhere (aside from trying to hold Joe Johnson's seat?) in the 38th Senate.

[Just an observation]

Funny how this race represents "the right candidates and issues" for Puckett, who disavowed the President and voted to allow that abortion provider bill through the Senate, but if Ward Armstrong does essentially the same thing, he's demonized. Also, for all his kvetching about that provider bill, NLS seems to have a short memory when it comes to Phil Puckett.

I guess it just goes to show: for NLS, the only good candidate is one who kisses his ass. Everyone else is "terrible."