What is Virginia's bellwether county?

With the July 4th holiday over, it's time to start looking forward to November when Virginia's voters will be a key part of the electoral strategy for Barack Obama and Mitt Romney nationally as well as deciding one of the closest Senate races in the U.S. between Tim Kaine and George Allen.

So what place in Virginia is the bellwether that can point us to the likely winners of these closely watched races?

106 localities (out of 134) voted for the entire McDonnell/Bolling/Cuccinelli ticket in Virginia's last statewide elections in 2009.  They were the counties of Accomack, Amelia, Amherst, Appomattox, Augusta, Bedford, Bland, Botetourt, Buchanan, Buckingham, Campbell, Caroline, Carroll, Charlotte, Chesterfield, Clarke, Craig, Culpeper, Cumberland, Dickenson, Dinwiddie, Essex, Fauquier, Floyd, Fluvanna, Franklin, Frederick, Giles, Gloucester, Goochland, Grayson, Greene, Halifax, Hanover, Henrico, Henry, Highland, Isle of Wight, James City, King and Queen, King George, King William, Lancaster, Lee, Loudoun, Louisa, Lunenberg, Madison, Mathews, Mecklenberg, Middlesex, Montgomery, Nelson, New Kent, Northumberland, Nottoway, Orange, Page, Patrick, Pittsylvania, Powhatan, Prince Edward, Prince George, Prince William, Pulaski, Rappahannock, Richmond, Roanoke, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Russell, Scott, Shenandoah, Smyth, Southampton, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Sussex, Tazewell, Warren, Washington, Westmoreland, Wise, Wythe, York, and the cities of Bedford, Bristol, Buena Vista, Chesapeake, Colonial Heights, Danville, Galax, Harrisonburg, Hopewell, Lynchburg, Manassas, Manassas Park, Norton, Poquoson, Radford, Salem, Staunton, Suffolk, Virginia Beach, Waynesboro, and Winchester.

The year before that, Virginia was carried by both Barack Obama for President and Mark Warner for Senate.  Only 22 of the localities that voted McDonnell/Bolling/Cuccinelli in 2009 had voted for Obama/Warner in 2008  They were the counties of Buckingham, Caroline, Essex, Henrico, King and Queen, Loudoun, Montgomery, Nelson, Prince Edward, Prince William, Sussex, Westmoreland, and the cities of Chesapeake, Danville, Harrisonburg, Hopewell, Manassas, Manassas Park, Radford, Staunton, Suffolk and Winchester.

Prior to 2008, the most recent statewide election was the Jim Webb-George Allen Senate race in 2006.  Only 9 localities that voted for all the winners in 2008 and 2009 also voted for Jim Webb in 2006- keeping their bellwether status intact.  Those were the counties of Caroline, Loudoun, Montgomery, Nelson, Prince William, Sussex, Westmoreland and the cities of Radford and Suffolk.

2005 was the statewide election before 2006, and is the most complicated for many of our bellwether counties.  While Tim Kaine was being elected Governor, the Lt. Governor went to the GOP with Bill Bolling by 1%, and the Attorney General went GOP with Bob McDonnell by a tiny fraction of 1%.   Could any county match that?

All nine of our remaining swing localities that voted for all the winners in 2009, 2008 and 2006 also voted for Tim Kaine for Governor in 2009.  But seven of those nine localities- Caroline, Montgomery, Nelson, Sussex, Westmoreland, Radford and Suffolk also voted for Leslie Byrne and Creigh Deeds downballot from Tim Kaine.

Only two localities remain that didn't vote for the statewide Democratic ticket in 2005- Loudoun and Prince William counties. 

Loudoun missed one race that year- voting Kaine/Byrne/McDonnell. 

But Prince William got them all correct- voting Kaine/Bolling/McDonnell.  Prince William also voted for George W. Bush in 2004, the only statewide race on the ballot that year.

So the longest streak of predicting winners and being a bellwether in Virginia- at ten statewide elections in a row- is Prince William County.  Prince William's streak did not last the entire decade of the 00's however- they voted for Mark Earley over Mark Warner for Governor in 2001, and voted for Jay Katzen over Tim Kaine for Lt. Governor that year as well.

Looking inside Prince William County- there is one area that votes as a bellwether to the county.  Prince William is split into seven magisterial districts- Brentsville, Coles, Gainesville, Neabsco, Occoquan, Potomac (used to be called Dumfries) and Woodbridge.  On the left is the map of those districts before the recent county redistricting that existed during the the last decade of Prince William's bellwether status.

One district- Coles- joined the county in voting for the winner in all ten statewide elections- Bob McDonnell, Bill Bolling and Ken Cuccinelli in 2009, Barack Obama and Mark Warner in 2008, Jim Webb in 2006, Tim Kaine, Bill Bolling and Bob McDonnell in 2005 and George W. Bush in 2004.  The closest Coles came to losing it's bellwether status came in the 2005 Lt. Governor's campaign when Bill Bolling won the district with 5,401 votes to Leslie Byrne's 5,400 votes.

Runners up for the bellwether locality are a few places that voted for nine of the last ten statewide winners.  Loudoun County only missed the 2005 Lt. Governor's race, while Winchester City, Chesapeake City and Henrico County only missed the 2006 U.S. Senate race.  The tiebreaker here for runner-up status is the 2001 statewide election- which voted for Mark Warner, Tim Kaine and Jerry Kilgore.  Henrico County was the only one of these four localities to vote for the winner in all three of those elections making Henrico the runner up to Prince William for bellwether county in Virginia.

In fact, Henrico also voted for George W. Bush and George Allen in 2000, Jim Gilmore, John Hager and Mark Earley in 1997 and finally Bob Dole and John Warner in 1996- giving it a streak of having voted for 19 of the last 20 statewide election winners.  Henrico's weak point seems to be midterm U.S. Senate races, as it missed the 2006 Allen-Webb race, and was otherwise perfect until you go back to the 1994 Robb-North race when Henrico voted for Oliver North. 

If you are a national reporter trying to figure out what part of Virginia you want to cover- now you know.  First go to Prince William- then head to Henrico and you will find out which way Virginia is headed.

Comments

[La Flama Blanca]

These are the kind of posts that truly make this a great site -- and you a good pundit.
After reading the title I was going to guess Henrico as being #1 because I vaguely recall them usually being on the prevailing side. Prince Bill I thought was more solidly GOP.

[DCCyclone]

Good post, Ben.

But, worth noting there are smart people who say Obama driving up black turnout makes Henrico, which has a lot of sporadic black voters, likely to vote for Obama even if he loses the state. This argument says Romney simply cannot win Henrico unless Obama completely tanks in the state, in which case "bellwether" doesn't mean anything.

[Thomas]

Excellent analysis!

[Not Larry Sabato]

Cyclone- that's probably true of Prince William also with the Woodbridge area. But really, if African American turnout is high, it's hard to imagine how Obama could lose the state with vote rich areas like Northern Virginia also so strongly behind him.

[kelley in virginia]

NLS: it is "Lunenburg" not "Lunenberg".

but other than that, good read.

[jason inofuentes]

I think it's notable that both PWilly and Henrico both have a duality of class representation. They are both notable for their manicured lawns in high end developments. And they both have areas that are best described as lower middle class. I wonder, though, in the time frame you're looking at, how have the demographics shifted. Certainly each has had a population boom, but how has the median income moved? Education? Family size?

[Chris]

I'd also be interested in seeing how VA-2 does. Of all the congressional district, that seems the swinging of swing districts in the state.

[GOPHokie]

To add to Ben's analysis, PWC and Henrico are the 2 localities with the best cross section of voters compared to the state as well. Both counties have areas that are very GOP, very dem and marginal either way. That is not a common theme in very many localities elsewhere in Virginia.

[Lovettsville Lady]

Excellent post.

[About Time]

The Democratic Party of Virginia's chairman is leaving his job with a college association to focus on party business.

The Washington Post reports that Brian Moran notified supporters of his decision in an email Thursday night. He wrote that Virginia Democrats will play a critical role in this year's elections.

Moran plans to resign from his job with the for-profit Association of Private Sector Colleges and Universities Aug. 1.

He has served as the state party's chairman since 2010.

[RichmondDem]

Great post. I knew Henrico County would be on here. Suburban Richmond is very much Virginia-in-miniature when it comes to demographics.

[sac a dos longchamp]

Grazas por escribir isto. Realmente sinto como se eu sei moito máis sobre iso do que eu fixen antes. O seu blog realmente trouxo algunhas cousas para a luz que eu nunca tería pensado antes de lelo. Ten que continuar con este, estou seguro que a maioría da xente acordo youve teño un don.
Ese é o blog adecuado para quen precisa de buscar máis sobre este tema. Entender moi súa case árdua para discutir con vostede (non que eu realmente teño ... haha). Definitivamente colocar unha nova rolda sobre un tema thats sido escrito sobre por anos. Nice stuff, gran!

[Fitflop Singapore]

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