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La Flama Blanca

These are the kind of posts that truly make this a great site -- and you a good pundit.
After reading the title I was going to guess Henrico as being #1 because I vaguely recall them usually being on the prevailing side. Prince Bill I thought was more solidly GOP.


Good post, Ben.

But, worth noting there are smart people who say Obama driving up black turnout makes Henrico, which has a lot of sporadic black voters, likely to vote for Obama even if he loses the state. This argument says Romney simply cannot win Henrico unless Obama completely tanks in the state, in which case "bellwether" doesn't mean anything.


Excellent analysis!

Not Larry Sabato

Cyclone- that's probably true of Prince William also with the Woodbridge area. But really, if African American turnout is high, it's hard to imagine how Obama could lose the state with vote rich areas like Northern Virginia also so strongly behind him.

kelley in virginia

NLS: it is "Lunenburg" not "Lunenberg".

but other than that, good read.

jason inofuentes

I think it's notable that both PWilly and Henrico both have a duality of class representation. They are both notable for their manicured lawns in high end developments. And they both have areas that are best described as lower middle class. I wonder, though, in the time frame you're looking at, how have the demographics shifted. Certainly each has had a population boom, but how has the median income moved? Education? Family size?


I'd also be interested in seeing how VA-2 does. Of all the congressional district, that seems the swinging of swing districts in the state.


To add to Ben's analysis, PWC and Henrico are the 2 localities with the best cross section of voters compared to the state as well. Both counties have areas that are very GOP, very dem and marginal either way. That is not a common theme in very many localities elsewhere in Virginia.

Lovettsville Lady

Excellent post.

About Time

The Democratic Party of Virginia's chairman is leaving his job with a college association to focus on party business.

The Washington Post reports that Brian Moran notified supporters of his decision in an email Thursday night. He wrote that Virginia Democrats will play a critical role in this year's elections.

Moran plans to resign from his job with the for-profit Association of Private Sector Colleges and Universities Aug. 1.

He has served as the state party's chairman since 2010.


Great post. I knew Henrico County would be on here. Suburban Richmond is very much Virginia-in-miniature when it comes to demographics.

sac a dos longchamp

Grazas por escribir isto. Realmente sinto como se eu sei moito máis sobre iso do que eu fixen antes. O seu blog realmente trouxo algunhas cousas para a luz que eu nunca tería pensado antes de lelo. Ten que continuar con este, estou seguro que a maioría da xente acordo youve teño un don.
Ese é o blog adecuado para quen precisa de buscar máis sobre este tema. Entender moi súa case árdua para discutir con vostede (non que eu realmente teño ... haha). Definitivamente colocar unha nova rolda sobre un tema thats sido escrito sobre por anos. Nice stuff, gran!

Fitflop Singapore

Wow, marvelous blog layout! How long have you ever been running a blog for? you make running a blog look easy. The whole look of your website is great, well the content material!

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