Is Virginia a Blue State?

The national media has been focusing a lot of time and attention on Virginia's role in selecting the President this year.  The media tends to focus its attention on the possible "tipping point" states.  What that means is if you lined the states up by their percentage margin for each candidate the tipping point would be which state on the winning side would be the one to cross a candidate over 270 electoral votes. 

For example, Utah might be the biggest GOP margin this year- so their six electoral votes would count first for the GOP, followed perhaps by Wyoming and their three, and maybe Kansas and their six electoral votes for a total of 15 and so on.  On the Democratic side, D.C. and its three electoral votes will have the biggest Dem margin, followed perhaps by Vermont and its three electoral votes, and Hawaii and their four electoral votes, for a total of 10, and so on.  The tipping point state would be when that total hit 270 on either side

In 2008, here's how this math worked for the election of Barack Obama:

D.C.- margin of 86.0%- 3 electoral votes- (Total of 3)
Hawaii- margin of 45.3%- 4 electoral votes (Total of 7)
Vermont- margin of 37.0%- 3 electoral votes (Total of 10)
Rhode Island- margin of 27.9%- 4 electoral votes (Total of 14)
New York- margin of 26.9%- 31 electoral votes (Total of 45)
Massachusetts- margin of 25.8%- 12 electoral votes (Total of 57)
Maryland- margin of 25.4%- 10 electoral votes (Total of 67)
Illinois- margin of 25.1%- 21 electoral votes (Total of 88)
Delaware- margin of 24.9%- 3 electoral votes (Total of 91)
California- margin of 24.0%- 54 electoral votes (Total of 145)
Maine, 1st CD, margin of 22.8%- 1 electoral vote (Total of 146)
Connecticut- margin of 22.4%- 7 electoral votes (Total of 153)
Maine At-Large- margin of 17.3%- 2 electoral votes (Total of 155)
Washington- margin of 17.2%- 11 electoral votes (Total of 166)
Oregon- margin of 16.4%- 7 electoral votes (Total of 173)
Michigan- margin of 16.4%- 17 electoral votes (Total of 190)
New Jersey- margin of 15.6%- 15 electoral votes (Total of 205)
New Mexico- margin of 15.1%- 5 electoral votes (Total of 210)
Wisconsin- margin of 13.9%- 10 electoral votes (Total of 220)
Nevada- margin of 12.5%- 5 electoral votes (Total of 225)
Maine, 2nd CD- margin of 11.2%- 1 electoral vote (Total of 226)
Pennsylvania- margin of 10.3%- 21 electoral votes (Total of 247)
Minnesota- margin of 10.2%- 10 electoral votes (Total of 257)
New Hampshire- margin of 9.6%- 4 electoral votes (Total of 261)
Iowa- margin of 9.5%- 7 electoral votes (Total of 268)
Colorado- margin of 9.0%- 9 electoral votes (Total of 277)
Virginia- margin of 6.3%- 13 electoral votes
Ohio- margin of 4.6%- 20 electoral votes
Florida- margin of 2.8%- 27 electoral votes
Nebraska, 2nd CD- margin of 1.2%- 1 electoral vote
Indiana- margin of 1.1%- 11 electoral votes
North Carolina- margin of 0.4%- 15 electoral votes

The electoral vote allocation has changed slightly since 2008 because of the 2010 census.  So let's look at these same numbers with the new electoral counts by state:

D.C.- margin of 86.0%- 3 electoral votes- (Total of 3)
Hawaii- margin of 45.3%- 4 electoral votes (Total of 7)
Vermont- margin of 37.0%- 3 electoral votes (Total of 10)
Rhode Island- margin of 27.9%- 4 electoral votes (Total of 14)
New York- margin of 26.9%- 29 electoral votes (Total of 43)
Massachusetts- margin of 25.8%- 11 electoral votes (Total of 54)
Maryland- margin of 25.4%- 10 electoral votes (Total of 64)
Illinois- margin of 25.1%- 20 electoral votes (Total of 84)
Delaware- margin of 24.9%- 3 electoral votes (Total of 87)
California- margin of 24.0%- 55 electoral votes (Total of 142)
Maine, 1st CD, margin of 22.8%- 1 electoral vote (Total of 143)
Connecticut- margin of 22.4%- 7 electoral votes (Total of 150)
Maine At-Large- margin of 17.3%- 2 electoral votes (Total of 152)
Washington- margin of 17.2%- 12 electoral votes (Total of 164)
Oregon- margin of 16.4%- 7 electoral votes (Total of 171)
Michigan- margin of 16.4%- 16 electoral votes (Total of 187)
New Jersey- margin of 15.6%- 14 electoral votes (Total of 201)
New Mexico- margin of 15.1%- 5 electoral votes (Total of 206)
Wisconsin- margin of 13.9%- 10 electoral votes (Total of 216)
Nevada- margin of 12.5%- 6 electoral votes (Total of 222)
Maine, 2nd CD- margin of 11.2%- 1 electoral vote (Total of 223)
Pennsylvania- margin of 10.3%- 20 electoral votes (Total of 243)
Minnesota- margin of 10.2%- 10 electoral votes (Total of 253)
New Hampshire- margin of 9.6%- 4 electoral votes (Total of 257)
Iowa- margin of 9.5%- 6 electoral votes (Total of 263)
Colorado- margin of 9.0%- 9 electoral votes (Total of 272)
Virginia- margin of 6.3%- 13 electoral votes
Ohio- margin of 4.6%- 18 electoral votes
Florida- margin of 2.8%- 29 electoral votes
Nebraska, 2nd CD- margin of 1.2%- 1 electoral vote
Indiana- margin of 1.1%- 11 electoral votes
North Carolina- margin of 0.4%- 15 electoral votes

As you can see, Virginia was only one state away from being the decisive "tipping point" in 2008.  What is amazing though is looking back at how quickly Virginia has become such a relevant state.

In 2004, Virginia was six states away from being the tipping point state for John Kerry.  In other words, six other states were closer in percentage after he crossed the magic 270 electoral votes he would have needed by winning Ohio.

In 2000 in the Bush-Gore race, Virginia was ten states to the right of the tipping point nationwide.

And in 1996, Virginia was *14* states to the right of the tipping point state for Bill Clinton.

No other state has moved as quickly as Virginia.  In this election it looks likely that we will potentially move past the tipping point, onto the *left* side of the 270 electoral vote math for the first time since the 1940's.  What that means is our margin for Obama is likely to be greater than the actual "tipping point" state this year.

Given the trends, Virginia is on its way to becoming electorally irrelevant in Presidential elections by 2024 because it will be so strongly *Democratic*.

Since the media isn't covering these trends and is instead only focusing on the "horse race" aspect of this race, I'm going to spend some time this week explaining what is happening to the state that is making us so blue at the Presidential level- and more importantly when we can expect to start to see this shift in the off-year elections that decide who goes to Richmond as well.

Comments

[Thomas]

Ben:

I thought that you had passed away; I have been checking the obituaries every day expecting to see your name, but found nothing. Congratulations on your survival.

[Eleazar Balboa]

Uranium mining in Southside Virginia abruptly became headline news again when it was discovered that Virginia Sen.

Don,
http://yesshop.yolasite.com/blog.php

[Morris Meyer]

Nice analysis Ben. Making sure we field a full slate in 2013 will be critical to starting that shift.

[notjohnsmosby]

I believe that Obama will win Virginia by around five points this year, so I think we'll be at least two states to the left of the tipping point state. I think the margin in Virginia will be better than Iowa and New Hampshire, and about the same as Colorado.

Of course, Ohio is polling like it may make a switch to the left side of Virginia, which will be a big move relative to last time. But, Virginia has been a reliably conservative state since 1964, and the move to the middle has been amazingly fast.

[PhaedrusMack]

Ben, Really excellent analysis!!

Have not been on you blog in awhile and am happy to see your still on point.