House District #3

The 3rd House of Delegates district is based in the coalfields of southwest Virginia and had a long history as the most reliable non majority-minority area for Virginia Democrats in the state.  This district at one time had over 80% of voters in a union household- mostly the United Mine Workers.  In 1988, Buchanan County gave Michael Dukakis his biggest percentage victory of any white majority county in the entire United States.  But in recent years, Democrats have fallen apart in this area as their national policies against the coal industry have turned the electorate here strongly against them.  Republicans won here in the Presidential race for the first time in 2004- exploding their margin in 2008- and picked up this House of Delegates seat in 2009 when Will Morefield defeated Dan Bowling, the Democratic incumbent.  By 2012, the tide had turned so strongly against the Democrats that this district has become the biggest Romney margin victory in Virginia.

House District #3 (map here)
55.0% of the vote in Tazewell County
29.9% of the vote in Buchanan County
9.0% of the vote in Bland County
6.0% of the vote in Russell County 

2012 Major Party Election Results

Mitt Romney 23,816 (74.8%)
Barack Obama 8,018 (25.2%)

George Allen 23,051 (71.5%)
Tim Kaine 9,209 (28.5%)

Morgan Griffith 21,475 (68.4%)
Anthony Flaccavento 9,924 (31.6%)

UTAH- The state the Presidential results most closely match with.  Utah had a margin of 49.3% for Romney, while the 3rd Delegate District of Virginia had a margin of 49.6% for Romney.

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In order to really understand what is happening in this district, you have to see the trend line.  Two counties in this area are entirely in the 3rd Delegate district- Tazewell and Buchanan.  Here are the last five Presidential election results in those counties:

Buchanan County
1996- Bill Clinton 70.2%, Bob Dole 29.8%
2000- Al Gore 59.8%, George W. Bush 40.2%
2004- John Kerry 53.9%, George W. Bush 46.1%
2008- Barack Obama 47.2%, John McCain 52.8%
2012- Barack Obama 32.5%, Mitt Romney 67.5%
75.4% margin swing to GOP from 1996-2012

Tazewell County
1996- Bill Clinton 55.0%, Bob Dole 45.0%
2000- Al Gore 45.5%, George W. Bush 54.5%
2004- John Kerry 41.7%, George W. Bush 58.3%
2008- Barack Obama 33.3%, John McCain 66.7%
2012- Barack Obama 20.9%, Mitt Romney 79.1%
68.2% margin swing to GOP from 1996-2012

As you can see- this isn't just a Barack Obama thing- it is a long term trend that has accelerated under Obama.  This massive shift hit this district locally in 2010 when the northern coal counties were unable to provide Rick Boucher the margin he had always won here- allowing the national GOP wave to overtake the 28 year incumbent as he fell to Morgan Griffith.

Downballot there is still some Democratic vote that is voting Republican at the Presidential level- but that is also quickly decreasing.  As Obama lost this district by a 74.8%-25.2% margin, Tim Kaine fell to George Allen by a 71.5%-28.5% margin, or only about a 3.3% crossover.  Meanwhile in the Congressional race there was some additional crossover for Anthony Flaccavento, as he fell here 68.4%-31.6% to Morgan Griffith.  That having been said- Buchanan County had never given a Democratic candidate for Congress in the 9th district less than 58% of the vote in the last century- this year it only gave Flaccavento 39.8%.  While that inflated number is because of the popularity of Rick Boucher, it's still a statistic that illustrates how tough it will be for the next generation of Democrats here to begin to mount a comeback.

It's widely known among both parties in Richmond that the incumbent here- Will Morefield- is extremely weak.  He even had to be called into the Speaker's office in 2010 when he acted inappropriately with a female member of the House of Delegates.  But he now sits on the biggest GOP percentage in Virginia in the Presidential race- which means he will have to be a lot more than underwhelming or obnoxious in order to lose this seat unless Republicans get fed up with his behavior and challenge him in a primary. 

Previous Districts Covered
House District #1- Terry Kilgore (Utah)
House District #2- Mark Dudenhefer (Delaware)
House District #13- Bob Marshall (New Mexico)
House District #28- Bill Howell (Florida)
House District #50- Jackson Miller (Michigan)
House District #51- Rich Anderson (Ohio)
House District #52- Luke Torian (Hawaii) 
 

Comments

[Aholtwilliams]

There are some worthy challengers in local government in Tazewell County that could certainly challenge Morefield. Thing is, the best known ones are pretty well settled into full time positions in the area and taking on a PT job so far away isn't worth it. Why give up a full time gig as a Commonwealth Officer to drive 6 hours each way to Richmond for a PT one?

Having a PT legislature really limits the sort of people who can afford to run.