Luke Torian's 52nd district has been one of the most frustrating for Virginia Democrats over the last couple decades. First represented by a moderate Republican Jack Rollison, the district voted in Jeff Frederick after Frederick unseated Rollison in a 2003 primary. This Democratic leaning district re-elected Frederick- a very conservative member of the legislature and later the Chair of the Republican Party of Virginia- until he gave up the seat in 2009. After a tough campaign downballot from the Deeds disaster it finally went blue, electing Torian to go to Richmond.
House District #52 (map here)
100% of the vote in Prince William County
2012 Major Party Election Results
Barack Obama 21,252 (73.4%)
Mitt Romney 7,693 (26.6%)
Tim Kaine 20,840 (72.3%)
George Allen 7,981 (27.7%)
Gerry Connolly/Adam Cook 19,847 (72.7%)
Chris Perkins/Rob Wittman 7,448 (27.3%)
(Broken down below)
Gerry Connolly 19,172 (73.6%)
Chris Perkins 6,875 (26.4%)
Adam Cook 675 (54.1%)
Rob Wittman 573 (45.9%)
HAWAII- The state the Presidential results most closely match with. Hawaii had a margin of 43.4% for Obama, while the 52nd Delegate District of Virginia had a margin of 46.8% for Obama.
After Torian was elected in 2009, he was surrounded by GOP Delegates. Instead of trying to win back a seat that they probably shouldn't have had to begin with, the Republicans smartly took many strongly Democratic precincts from their districts and packed them all into Torian's area. Now his district is even more strongly Democratic and is one of the safest in Virginia.
Interestingly, George Allen ran ahead of Mitt Romney in this district with a 1.2% net crossover vote. Allen also ran ahead of Romney in precincts with large minority populations in the Manassas area- suggesting that this crossover (which didn't exist in white areas of Prince William) is a pool of African American voters that supported an Obama/Allen ticket. However, that certainly wasn't a majority opinion here, as Kaine won 73.2% even with the crossover vote against him.
Despite the districts having the same population after redistricting, this district (which runs from Woodbridge to Dumfries with Dale City in between) has much lower turnout than it's neighbor to the west- the 51st district represented by Rich Anderson. While a total of 40,926 votes were cast in the 51st district, only 28,945 were cast in the 52nd district in this Presidential election. The working class neighborhoods that make up the 52nd district have much higher turnover in population, as well as a large immigrant population that isn't eligible to vote yet. The lower turnout in these precincts carries over into lower turnout elections and is a big reason why Prince William has stayed solidly Republican in countywide races held in off years.
As currently drawn, the 52nd will be Torian's for as long as he wants to hold it. While the GOP did an excellent job stuffing Democrats into this district, there are still a lot more that couldn't be placed in a single district that are pushing the rest of the Prince William districts blue. If Republicans control the next redistricting, don't be surprised to see a second solidly Democratic seat drawn next door to the 52nd to take in the votes that couldn't be stuffed into this district.