House District #6

In 2005, as Tim Kaine was defeating Jerry Kilgore for Governor, only one incumbent Democratic legislator was losing downballot.  Benny Keister lost this district that year to Anne Crockett-Stark, a member of the Wythe County Board of Supervisors.  Since then Crockett-Stark has easily held the seat here in three re-elections- including last year when her district was redrawn to send Pulaski County to another district, and Anne's district was instead stretched down Interstate 77 from her home to the North Carolina border.

House District #6 (map here)
38.6% of the vote in Carroll County
37.6% of the vote in Wythe County
23.8% of the vote in Smyth County

2012 Major Party Election Results

Mitt Romney 21,970 (68.0%)
Barack Obama 10,321 (32.0%)

George Allen 21,291 (65.6%)
Tim Kaine 11,153 (34.4%)

Morgan Griffith 20,202 (64.1%)
Anthony Flaccavento 11,316 (35.9%)

OKLAHOMA- The state the Presidential results most closely match with.  Oklahoma had a margin of 33.5% for Romney, while the 6th Delegate District of Virginia had a margin of 36.0% for Romney.

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Once a Democratic district, the 6th district no longer has any Democratic areas in it.  Barack Obama lost all three counties here- Carroll by a 8,736-3,685 (70.3%) count, Wythe by a 8,324-3,783 (68.8%) vote and the portion of Smyth County in this district by a 4,810-2,853 (62.8%) margin.  Tim Kaine ran a little over 2% better in each of these counties- with margins for George Allen in Carroll of 8,596-4,075 (67.8%), Wythe of 8,080-4,031 (66.7%) and Smyth of 4,615-3,047 (60.2%).  Morgan Griffith had almost identical percentages to George Allen in Carroll and Wythe, but slipped to 55.8% in Smyth County.  Smyth is the furthest west county and is consistent with the rest of far southwest Virginia where Griffith trailed the GOP ticket- and this district seems to be the dividing line where that drop-off from Allen stopped for Griffith.

This area of southwest Virginia (which is between the coal mining counties and before you get to the New River Valley where Blacksburg is located) just doesn't have a real two party system anymore.  Democrats can still succeed here at the local level- sometimes- but voters have been sending very large margins for the GOP in statewide and General Assembly campaigns here for the last ten years- and they continue to grow.  That's why it was so strange to see the Democratic Caucus target this seat with almost $100,000 in cash contributions in the 2009 elections downballot from Bob McDonnell.  The Democratic candidate was Carole Pratt- mother of then House Caucus director Matt Mansell.  While eight Democratic incumbents lost their seats that year, Pratt turned this influx of money into less than 35% of the vote.  In all the years I have been covering Virginia politics, this might have been the strangest thing I've ever seen a caucus do.

After that debacle, I don't expect you'll see the Democrats ever target this seat again.  Crockett-Stark is here for as long as she wants.

Previous Districts Covered
House District #1- Terry Kilgore (Utah)
House District #2- Mark Dudenhefer (Delaware)
House District #3- Will Morefield (Utah) 
House District #4- Joe Johnson (Wyoming)
House District #5- Israel O'Quinn (Wyoming)
House District #13- Bob Marshall (New Mexico)
House District #28- Bill Howell (Florida)
House District #50- Jackson Miller (Michigan)
House District #51- Rich Anderson (Ohio)
House District #52- Luke Torian (Hawaii)
 

Comments

[notroberthurt]

The sad thing about this analysis is to read the number Virginia Lawyers Weekly did on this delegate. She gave some sob story about the castle legislation about a case in her district. VLW surveyed the Circuit Court Clerks in the district and no one could remember such a case ever being on the docket.

[Aholtwilliams]

And now this seat is open. Should at least be interesting to see who emerges to contest it.