The 26th district has been based around Harrisonburg since the creation of single member districts. Republicans have long held this seat without much competition, but that changed in 2003 when incumbent Glenn Weatherholtz was almost defeated by Lowell Fulk- now a local school member in Rockingham. Weatherholtz retired, and despite a large crossover from the Kilgore-Kaine race, Fulk narrowly lost the open seat in 2005 to Matt Lohr. Lohr served for a couple of terms, but after the tragic death of his wife Andrea Lohr, Matt decided to move on to the executive branch and is currently Virginia's Agriculture Commissioner. When the special election was held to replace Matt in 2010, Tony Wilt trounced Harrisonburg Mayor Kai Denger and then Wilt was re-elected without opposition in the general election of 2011.
House District #26 (map here)
52.3% of the vote in Harrisonburg City
47.7% of the vote in Rockingham County
2012 Major Party Election Results
Mitt Romney 16,294 (56.0%)
Barack Obama 12,790 (44.0%)
George Allen 16,506 (56.7%)
Tim Kaine 12,628 (43.3%)
Bob Goodlatte 17,385 (60.4%)
Andy Schmookler 11,401 (39.6%)
MISSISSIPPI- The state the Presidential results most closely match with. Mississippi had a margin of 11.6% for Romney, while the 26th Delegate District of Virginia had a margin of 12.0% for Romney.
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The 26th district is another example of two very different districts being combined into one. In the City of Harrisonburg- home of James Madison University, Barack Obama won a 8,654-6,565 (56.9%) vote over Mitt Romney. But once you leave the City limits the politics immediately shifts. Rockingham County precincts in this district voted for Romney by a 9,729-4,136 (70.2%) margin. If these two localities were states- Harrisonburg voted like "Oregon" while Rockingham voted like "Wyoming".
The Senate and Congressional races had similar splits. In the Senate race, Harrisonburg voted for Tim Kaine over George Allen by a 8,507-6,681 (56.0%) margin. That gave Allen a 0.9% crossover over Romney. In Rockingham, Allen defeated Kaine by a 9,825-4,121 (70.5%) vote, a 0.3% crossover for Allen above Romney. In the Congressional race, Andy Schmookler won Harrisonburg by a 7,670-7,284 (51.3%) vote over Bob Goodlatte- a 5.6% crossover for Goodlatte over Romney. In Rockingham, Goodlatte won by a 10,101-3,731 (73.0%) vote, a 2.8% crossover for Goodlatte over Romney.
Looking at past elections in this district, you can see exactly what it takes to be competitive here for a Democrat. Lowell Fulk won strongly Republican precincts in the Broadway area of Rockingham County both times he ran- and was able to keep this seat a very competitive race. However when Harrisonburg Kai Denger ran here, he lost Rockingham County by over a 5-1 margin and was crushed by Tony Wilt. If Democrats field someone here who can win votes in Rockingham County and cut into the margin there, this could be a close race once again. Fulk is still the best chance that Democrats have if they want to break through and win a seat in the Valley.
One amusing note here. When Fulk first ran in 2003 he was contested in a Democratic convention for the nomination by David Mills- a former JMU student government President. His campaign was managed by Levar Stoney, also from the JMU student government. Their strategy was to turn out college students- for a convention held a month after school let out for the summer. It failed miserably. Since then Mills went on to lose numerous campaigns across the state before being selected as Executive Director of the DPVA- leading Democrats to even more losses. Stoney left the state and got into legal problems- before returning to work for Creigh Deeds in 2005. Stoney has also worked on numerous losing campaigns and is now Terry McAuliffe's political director. For what it's worth- I've never seen any sign that their judgement has improved over the years since they attempted to win a convention with voters that were hundreds of miles away.
Previous Districts Covered
House District #1- Terry Kilgore (Utah)
House District #2- Mark Dudenhefer (Delaware)
House District #3- Will Morefield (Utah)
House District #4- Joe Johnson (Wyoming)
House District #5- Israel O'Quinn (Wyoming)
House District #6- Anne Crockett-Stark (Oklahoma)
House District #7- Nick Rush (Kansas)
House District #8- Greg Habeeb (Arkansas)
House District #9- Charles Poindexter (West Virginia)
House District #10- Randy Minchew (North Carolina)
House District #11- Onzlee Ware (Rhode Island)
House District #12- Joseph Yost (Virginia)
House District #13- Bob Marshall (New Mexico)
House District #14- Danny Marshall (North Carolina)
House District #16- Don Merricks (Mississippi)
House District #17- Chris Head (Tennessee)
House District #19- Lacey Putney (West Virginia)
House District #20- Dickie Bell (Texas)
House District #22- Kathy Byron (Kentucky)
House District #23- Scott Garrett (Idaho)
House District #24- Ben Cline (Arkansas)
House District #28- Bill Howell (Florida)
House District #30- Ed Scott (Montana)
House District #32- Tag Greason (New Hampshire)
House District #33- Joe May (Alaska)
House District #50- Jackson Miller (Michigan)
House District #51- Rich Anderson (Ohio)
House District #52- Luke Torian (Hawaii)
House District #60- James Edmunds (North Carolina)
House District #87- David Ramadan (Washington)
It wasn't always 100% Republican.
Democrat Paul Cline represented the district from 1986-87.
http://dela.state.va.us/dela/MemBios.nsf/6d7fad96a2f89a6785256c23006d3f89/28439b8c5842eed985256b35005fd069?OpenDocument
Posted by: Not Harry F. Byrd, Sr. | December 24, 2012 at 09:02 AM
Paul Cline only won because of the flood of 1985. Phoebe Orebaugh couldn't get county voters to the polls due to the flood.
Ben, Matt became the VDACS commissioner months before she passed.
Posted by: Myron Rhodes | December 24, 2012 at 09:53 PM
"If Democrats field someone here who can win votes in Rockingham County and cut into the margin there, this could be a close race once again."
Yes, but ...
Remember your own analysis from back in 2005. Fulk ran significantly ahead of Tim Kaine in the Rockingham precincts, exactly what would be needed to make the race close. But he barely ran ahead of Kaine in Harrisonburg, which ultimately doomed the campaign.
The growth of the Democratic base in Harrisonburg is obvious in this district, Obama's 2008 and 2012 performances are up over double digits compared to Kerry from 2004.
If Fulk could match his Rockingham performance again in a good year, he'd still need a strong Harrisonburg vote to win. That says a gubernatorial year to me.
Posted by: VirginiaLib | December 26, 2012 at 06:40 AM