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Myron Rhodes

Paul Cline only won because of the flood of 1985. Phoebe Orebaugh couldn't get county voters to the polls due to the flood.

Ben, Matt became the VDACS commissioner months before she passed.

VirginiaLib

"If Democrats field someone here who can win votes in Rockingham County and cut into the margin there, this could be a close race once again."

Yes, but ...

Remember your own analysis from back in 2005. Fulk ran significantly ahead of Tim Kaine in the Rockingham precincts, exactly what would be needed to make the race close. But he barely ran ahead of Kaine in Harrisonburg, which ultimately doomed the campaign.

The growth of the Democratic base in Harrisonburg is obvious in this district, Obama's 2008 and 2012 performances are up over double digits compared to Kerry from 2004.

If Fulk could match his Rockingham performance again in a good year, he'd still need a strong Harrisonburg vote to win. That says a gubernatorial year to me.

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