The 32nd district was exploding in growth during the 1990's and the first decade of the 2000's- so it has had to shrink in size dramatically. Just a few years ago this district covered most of eastern Loudoun County, now it only straddles the Potomac River and stays mostly north of the Dulles Toll Road, ending a few miles east of Leesburg. This district was represented by Bill Mims before he was elected to the Virginia Senate in a late 1997 special election. Dick Black replaced Mims and served four terms before being defeated by David Poisson in 2005. Poisson held the seat for two terms before his defeat by Tag Greason in 2009- who has held the seat since. Greason attempted to run for the Loudoun School Board in 2007 and was thrown off the ballot because of misfiling his paperwork, a mistake that proved to later help him as he was then available to run for the House in 2009. Of the now seven Delegates that represent Loudoun County, this is the only district entirely in Loudoun.
House District #32 (map here)
100% of the vote in Loudoun County
2012 Major Party Election Results
Barack Obama 22,094 (52.8%)
Mitt Romney 19,738 (47.2%)
Tim Kaine 22,330 (53.5%)
George Allen 19,398 (46.5%)
Frank Wolf 22,843 (56.7%)
Kristin Cabral 17,434 (43.3%)
Loudoun County has been moving towards the Democrats because of the growth in the eastern part of the county. The western parts of Loudoun are still rural and while they have shown some political independence they are generally Republican in statewide and national elections. As you get further east there is more density, and in Northern Virginia density equals Democratic voters.
In the Presidential race in the 32nd district, Barack Obama won here on election day 18,999-16,973 (52.8%) over Mitt Romney. Countywide, Obama got 52.3% both on election day and with absentee ballots- making this district a little bit more Democratic than Loudoun County as a whole. The district is based in the Ashburn and Broad Run districts- areas that sit between the Town of Leesburg and the Loudoun magisterial districts that border Fairfax County. The four precincts in this district that are in the Algonkian and Dulles magisterial districts (that are further east) made up almost half of Obama's election day margin in the district- 3,143-2,202 or 58.8%- despite being only 15% of the total district vote. The areas in Broad Run and Ashburn districts included here were a much closer 15,856-14,771 vote or 51.8% for Obama.
The Senate race between Tim Kaine and George Allen saw almost identical results precinct by precinct to the Presidential vote- with a slight 0.6% districtwide crossover to Kaine. That gave Kaine a 19,201-16,730 win here on election day, 202 votes more for Kaine than Obama, and 243 less for Allen than Romney. That's only about 10 net crossover votes per precinct, with precincts averaging over 2,000 votes each.
The straight ticket voting in this area did not extend to the Congressional race where once again Frank Wolf won a huge crossover vote. The results here were 19,655-14,996 (56.7%) on election day in Wolf's win over Kristin Cabral. Wolf had around a 10% crossover in every precinct in Loudoun, in this district coming in with a slightly below countywide average crossover of 9.5%. What makes Wolf's success so impressive is how many of his neighborhoods are packed with new voters, yet he wins just as large of a crossover with them as he does with neighborhoods that are mostly longtime constituents. His crossover margin has declined a little bit over the last few years with the increased national partisanship, but it really hasn't declined much compared to many of his colleagues.
This district is packed with many younger families- and Tag Greason's youth athletic involvement was huge to his initial success here. Since being elected he patroned the autism insurance reform bill- which plays well into the same base.
Loudoun continues to moderate politically- just over ten years ago George W. Bush was winning Loudoun by almost ten points more than his statewide margin, and Mark Earley was defeating Mark Warner for Governor in Loudoun. But in 2012 the results in Loudoun have placed it almost identical with the statewide results. That shows a trendline that is averaging out to Loudoun moving one point per year to the left of the state. That's a long term problem for Greason in this district, but in the short term he sits in a strong position until the Democrats can find a candidate that is able to match or exceed his community involvement, especially with kids. That candidate will not be easy to find and recruit- hence Greason winning this seat unopposed in 2011, just one term after defeating the Democratic incumbent Poisson. One thing working in the Democrats favor is Greason's very conservative voting record on social issues in Richmond. The results here on election day appear to put him well out of touch with his district on those issues.
One final interesting note here. When David Poisson defeated Dick Black in 2005, his vote total was almost identical to Tim Kaine's margin over Jerry Kilgore in the Governor's race on top of that ticket. When Tag Greason defeated Poisson in 2009, his vote total was almost identical to Bob McDonnell's margin over Creigh Deeds in the Governor's race on top of that ticket. That's a statistic worth watching to see if it holds- and would be obvious trouble for Greason it looks like the Democrats will be successful in the 2013 Governor's race.
Previous Districts Covered
House District #1- Terry Kilgore (Utah)
House District #2- Mark Dudenhefer (Delaware)
House District #3- Will Morefield (Utah)
House District #4- Joe Johnson (Wyoming)
House District #5- Israel O'Quinn (Wyoming)
House District #6- Anne Crockett-Stark (Oklahoma)
House District #7- Nick Rush (Kansas)
House District #8- Greg Habeeb (Arkansas)
House District #9- Charles Poindexter (West Virginia)
House District #12- Joseph Yost (Virginia)
House District #13- Bob Marshall (New Mexico)
House District #14- Danny Marshall (North Carolina)
House District #16- Don Merricks (Mississippi)
House District #28- Bill Howell (Florida)
House District #50- Jackson Miller (Michigan)
House District #51- Rich Anderson (Ohio)
House District #52- Luke Torian (Hawaii)