The 57th district- based in the City of Charlottesville- is the most Democratic district in Virginia outside of the urban crescent. Mitch Van Yahres held this seat until he retired in 2005, then former Charlottesville Mayor David Toscano won it. After Ward Armstrong's defeat in 2011, Toscano became the House Democratic Leader in a 68-32 minority.
House District #57 (map here)
54.9% of the vote in Charlottesville City
45.1% of the vote in Albemarle County
2012 Major Party Election Results
Barack Obama 27,767 (71.4%)
Mitt Romney 11,134 (28.6%)
Tim Kaine 28,420 (72.9%)
George Allen 10,557 (27.1%)
John Douglass 25,949 (68.7%)
Robert Hurt 11,830 (31.3%)
HAWAII- The state the Presidential results most closely match with. Hawaii had a margin of 43.4% for Obama, while the 57th Delegate District of Virginia had a margin of 42.8% for Obama.
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The City of Charlottesville is united in this district- but even with the University population only provides just over 50% of one legislative district. The tiny size of this city allows the GOP to stuff a number of Democratic precincts from Albemarle County into this district as well- making it a Democratic stronghold but shutting those voices out of neighboring GOP districts. Charlottesville voted for Barack Obama over Mitt Romney by a 16,510-4,844 (77.3%) margin. The Albemarle precincts in this district voted for Obama by a 11,257-6,290 (64.2%) count.
In the Congressional races, Democrats dominated here with some crossover cutting both ways. In the Senate race Tim Kaine won Charlottesville by a 16,800-4,589 (78.5%) vote over George Allen, a 1.2% crossover above Obama's tally. In Albemarle, Kaine won a 11,620-5,968 (66.1%) vote, a 1.9% crossover above Obama's results there. In the Congressional race, John Douglass carried Charlottesville by a 15,489-5,208 (74.8%) vote over Robert Hurt, a 2.5% improvement for Hurt over the top of his ticket. In these Albermarle precincts Douglass also prevailed by a 10,460-6,622 (61.2%) margin, a 3.0% crossover for Hurt over Romney there.
There's no question that a Republican would be unable to win this district, so as long as David Toscano avoids a primary challenge he will continue to represent this district for as long as he wants. In terms of a challenge though- one of the really tough things about being the Democratic Leader in the House of Delegates is deciding whether you want to be part of governing- which requires deals with the GOP- or if you want to be a political leader trying to change the makeup of the legislature. So far Toscano has put most of his attention to the governing side of things- winning praise from groups like Americans for Prosperity- and in the process has created a number of issues that a primary challenger could raise. On the other hand, Toscano has yet to serve through a full election cycle, so he may be planning to ramp up the political side of things this year. In Toscano, I don't see the kind of Vance Wilkins type of leadership that is required to recruit, fund and create a new Democratic majority- so he may just be a placeholder until that type of leader comes along.
Previous Districts Covered
House District #1- Terry Kilgore (Utah)
House District #2- Mark Dudenhefer (Delaware)
House District #3- Will Morefield (Utah)
House District #4- Joe Johnson (Wyoming)
House District #5- Israel O'Quinn (Wyoming)
House District #6- Anne Crockett-Stark (Oklahoma)
House District #7- Nick Rush (Kansas)
House District #8- Greg Habeeb (Arkansas)
House District #9- Charles Poindexter (West Virginia)
House District #10- Randy Minchew (North Carolina)
House District #11- Onzlee Ware (Rhode Island)
House District #12- Joseph Yost (Virginia)
House District #13- Bob Marshall (New Mexico)
House District #14- Danny Marshall (North Carolina)
House District #16- Don Merricks (Mississippi)
House District #17- Chris Head (Tennessee)
House District #19- Lacey Putney (West Virginia)
House District #20- Dickie Bell (Texas)
House District #22- Kathy Byron (Kentucky)
House District #23- Scott Garrett (Idaho)
House District #24- Ben Cline (Arkansas)
House District #25- Steve Landes (Kentucky)
House District #26- Tony Wilt (Mississippi)
House District #28- Bill Howell (Florida)
House District #30- Ed Scott (Montana)
House District #32- Tag Greason (New Hampshire)
House District #33- Joe May (Alaska)
House District #50- Jackson Miller (Michigan)
House District #51- Rich Anderson (Ohio)
House District #52- Luke Torian (Hawaii)
House District #59- Matt Fariss (South Dakota)
House District #60- James Edmunds (North Carolina)
House District #87- David Ramadan (Washington)
Why do you doubt Toscano's leadership skills?
Posted by: Dandem75 | December 29, 2012 at 02:19 AM