The 58th district has long been the GOP leaning district with a population base in Albemarle County just outside Charlottesville. Peter Way held this seat until he retired in 1997, then Paul Harris held the seat for two terms before he stepped down. Rob Bell was elected here in 2001, and has only been contested by Democrats in the Governor year cycles of 2005 and 2009 since- running unopposed in 2003, 2007 and 2011. This year Bell is running for Attorney General, and it is not yet clear if he will seek re-election in this district should he fall short of getting the Republican nomination at the June convention.
House District #58 (map here)
42.0% of the vote in Albemarle County
22.1% of the vote in Fluvanna County
21.5% of the vote in Greene County
14.4% of the vote in Rockingham County
2012 Major Party Election Results
Mitt Romney 23,933 (58.1%)
Barack Obama 17,225 (41.9%)
George Allen 23,561 (57.1%)
Tim Kaine 17,717 (42.9%)
Robert Hurt/Bob Goodlatte 24,724 (61.3%)
John Douglass/Andy Schmookler 15,637 (38.7%)
(Broken down below)
Robert Hurt 20,328 (59.0%)
John Douglass 14,115 (41.0%)
Bob Goodlatte 4,396 (74.3%)
Andy Schmookler 1,522 (25.7%)
TEXAS- The state the Presidential results most closely match with. Texas had a margin of 16.0% for Romney, while the 58th Delegate District of Virginia had a margin of 16.3% for Romney.
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Albemarle County continues to be the population base to this district after redistricting, but is under 50% of the electorate for the first time. Despite being in the most GOP precincts in Albemarle, this area is the most politically competitive in the 58th district, voting for Mitt Romney over Barack Obama by a 8,999-8,297 (52.0%) vote. The district then picks up three counties- Fluvanna to the east, Greene to the north and Rockingham to the far northwest. Fluvanna County is split with the 65th district, and the portions in this district are the more Republican parts of that county. Romney won these precincts by a 5,069-4,024 (55.7%) vote. Greene County is the only county that is united in this district and they voted for Romney over Obama by a 5,569-3,290 (62.9%) vote. Finally, a small chunk of Rockingham was added back into this district to solidify it even further for the GOP- those precincts voted for Romney by a 4,296-1,614 (72.7%) blowout. Greene and Rockingham only account for 35% of the district's total vote, but they account for 74% of the total GOP margin of victory in the 58th district.
In the Senate race, Tim Kaine and George Allen battled to a virtual tie in these Albemarle precincts- with Allen winning by a 8,727-8,682 (50.1%) vote. That's a crossover of 1.9% for Kaine over Obama's numbers here. In the Fluvanna precincts, Allen won by a 4,989-4,110 (54.8%) vote, a crossover of 0.9% to Kaine over Obama's numbers. The crossover continues to decline in Greene County where Allen won a 5,552-3,374 (62.2%) win, a 0.7% crossover to Kaine over Obama. Finally in Rockingham, Allen wins with a 4,293-1,551 (73.5%) vote, a 0.8% improvement for Allen over Romney's percentage there. In that case, Allen's numbers were actually within 3 votes of Romney's- and his increased percentage was driven by falloff from Obama to Kaine.
As we've seen elsewhere the top vote getters in these areas were the local GOP Congressmen. In the Albemarle precincts, Robert Hurt beat John Douglass by a 9,355-7,590 (55.2%) vote, a 3.2% improvement from the top of his ticket. Same in Fluvanna where Hurt won a 5,218-3,618 (59.1%) vote, a 3.4% improvement for Hurt over Romney. In Greene, Hurt won by a 5,755-2,907 (66.4%) vote, a 3.5% improvement for him over Romney. Rockingham is in the 6th Congressional, and Bob Goodlatte carried these precincts over Andy Schmookler by a 4,396-1,522 (74.3%) vote, a crossover of 1.6% for Goodlatte over Romney's numbers.
If Rob Bell ends up not winning the AG nomination and decides to run for re-election he should have no problems getting re-elected in this district, especially under the new lines. An open seat race here could be interesting, but would be problematic for any Democratic candidate to find the right formula between these very different counties to win. There's still enough population in the Albemarle precincts to make this a close race with a good sized win there- but that's unlikely given the very careful way that Bell chose the Albemarle voters to be included in this district. Unless the GOP candidate here makes a major mistake this looks like a pretty solid Republican hold. That's all assuming the seat is open because Bell decides not to run- if the seat is open because Bell is the Republican nominee for AG then it will be even less competitive this year.
Previous Districts Covered
House District #1- Terry Kilgore (Utah)
House District #2- Mark Dudenhefer (Delaware)
House District #3- Will Morefield (Utah)
House District #4- Joe Johnson (Wyoming)
House District #5- Israel O'Quinn (Wyoming)
House District #6- Anne Crockett-Stark (Oklahoma)
House District #7- Nick Rush (Kansas)
House District #8- Greg Habeeb (Arkansas)
House District #9- Charles Poindexter (West Virginia)
House District #10- Randy Minchew (North Carolina)
House District #11- Onzlee Ware (Rhode Island)
House District #12- Joseph Yost (Virginia)
House District #13- Bob Marshall (New Mexico)
House District #14- Danny Marshall (North Carolina)
House District #16- Don Merricks (Mississippi)
House District #17- Chris Head (Tennessee)
House District #19- Lacey Putney (West Virginia)
House District #20- Dickie Bell (Texas)
House District #22- Kathy Byron (Kentucky)
House District #23- Scott Garrett (Idaho)
House District #24- Ben Cline (Arkansas)
House District #25- Steve Landes (Kentucky)
House District #26- Tony Wilt (Mississippi)
House District #28- Bill Howell (Florida)
House District #30- Ed Scott (Montana)
House District #32- Tag Greason (New Hampshire)
House District #33- Joe May (Alaska)
House District #50- Jackson Miller (Michigan)
House District #51- Rich Anderson (Ohio)
House District #52- Luke Torian (Hawaii)
House District #57- David Toscano (Hawaii)
House District #59- Matt Fariss (South Dakota)
House District #60- James Edmunds (North Carolina)
House District #87- David Ramadan (Washington)
If Cuccinelli has a negative effect on the GOP ticket, do you still think Bell would help upticket in the Albemarle precincts? Also what are the next districts to come? Are we looking at the remaining upper Shenadoah seats next? Or Facquier, remainder of Loudoun & PWC & into NOVA?
Posted by: Dandem75 | December 29, 2012 at 07:05 PM
Next up- 29th, 15th, 31st, 18th, then on to Fairfax.
Posted by: Bentrib | December 29, 2012 at 10:15 PM
NLS,
I've asked many folks and can't get an answer.....what happened to Paul Harris? The guy left this seat for DOJ. He made a very brief appearance a couple of years ago with AFP. But....the guy was a good politician and a rising star in the GOP and then....poof.....he's pretty much been nonexistent. TIA.
Posted by: notroberthurt | December 29, 2012 at 11:03 PM
NRH- Great question. I have no idea, but it must be a great story.
Posted by: Bentrib | December 30, 2012 at 07:42 AM
If you ever get the scoop, please post it.
To me, the 58th, as currently constituted, is Lucy with the football for the D's. There's something that looks mildly attractive about the district...."If we just got the right candidate".....but that football's gonna be pulled away every single time.
Posted by: notroberthurt | December 30, 2012 at 09:35 AM
Clearly the Farriss seat is far more suceptible to a Dem takeover than this one. Not Robert Hurt is right this isn't a winner for the Dems
Posted by: Dandem75 | December 31, 2012 at 01:22 AM