The 59th district was long represented by Watkins Abbitt Jr- son of former Congressman Watkins Abbitt Sr. When first elected in 1985, Watkins Abbitt Jr was a Democrat, but became an independent during the 2001 redistricting process. He was elected for another 10 years as an Independent until his retirement in 2011. The open seat featured a race between Matt Fariss and Connie Brennan. Fariss ran up big margins in the more rural and Republican areas of the district in Campbell and Appomattox counties which overwhelmed the margins for Brennan in Albemarle and Nelson.
House District #59 (map here)
37.3% of the vote in Campbell County
20.6% of the vote in Appomattox County
19.4% of the vote in Buckingham County
13.3% of the vote in Albemarle County
9.5% of the vote in Nelson County
2012 Major Party Election Results
Mitt Romney 22,407 (59.3%)
Barack Obama 15,386 (40.7%)
George Allen 22,432 (58.9%)
Tim Kaine 15,650 (41.1%)
Robert Hurt 22,942 (62.4%)
John Douglass 13,841 (37.6%)
SOUTH DAKOTA- The state the Presidential results most closely match with. South Dakota had a margin of 18.4% for Romney, while the 59th Delegate District of Virginia had a margin of 18.6% for Romney.
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The 59th district starts out south of Lynchburg in Campbell County around the Rustburg area. These precincts are the strongest part of the GOP base in this district, voting for Mitt Romney over Barack Obama by a 9,769-4,318 (69.3%) margin. As you head north into Appomattox County the politics is very similar with Mitt Romney winning a 5,340-2,453 (68.5%) vote. From that point, the demographics change and the election results shift. In the center of the district in Buckingham County, Barack Obama won a 3,750-3,569 (51.2%) win over Romney. In the portions of Nelson County included in this district, Obama won by a 1,919-1,660 (53.6%) vote. Finally the district ends in Albemarle County approaching the City of Charlottesville. In those Albemarle precincts, Obama won by a 2,946-2,069 (58.7%) margin over Romney.
In the Senate race, George Allen also won a big win in Campbell County precincts in this district- a margin of 9,874-4,465 (68.9%) over Tim Kaine- a 0.4% improvement for Kaine over Obama there. In Appomattox, Allen won a 5,244-2,568 (67.1%) victory- a 1.4% improvement for Kaine over Obama. But in Buckingham County as we see in many places with a large African American vote, the crossover vote slightly shifts to Allen. Buckingham voted 3,654-3,610 (50.3%) for Kaine- a 0.9% bump for Allen over Romney's numbers there. Nelson County voted for Kaine by a 1,922-1,690 (53.2%), a 0.4% improvement for Allen over Romney's percentage there. Finally in Albemarle, the demographics shift again, giving Kaine a win of 3,041-2,014 (60.2%), a 1.5% improvement for Kaine over Obama's numbers.
Each of these counties is in the 5th Congressional district, and Robert Hurt led the GOP ticket in each of them- but with a much smaller crossover vote than he won in other parts of the 5th. Hurt's largest crossover was in Campbell County where he beat John Douglass by a 9,996-3,760 (72.7%) margin, a 3.4% improvement over Romney's numbers there. Moving north Hurt prevailed in Appomattox County by a 5,382-2,221 (70.8%) margin, a 2.3% improvement over Romney's numbers. Hurt then won a 3.6% crossover in Buckingham County, carrying a county that had narrowly voted for Obama/Kaine by a 3,662-3,330 (52.4%) vote. In Nelson, Douglass was able to narrowly hold on to those precincts by a 1,769-1,744 (50.4%) vote, a 3.2% improvement for Hurt over Romney's numbers there. Finally in Albemarle, Douglass won by a 2,761-2,158 (56.1%) vote, a 2.6% improvement for Hurt over Romney's numbers there.
When this seat opened up in 2011, Matt Fariss prevailed over Connie Brennan despite a long rap sheet including a DUI, protective orders against him and weapons charges related to a hunting incident. Brennan ran ahead of the usual Democratic vote in Nelson (where she is a county Supervisor) and Albemarle, but also in the southern end of the district in Campbell (where Fariss lives) and Appomattox. She only trailed the usual Democratic vote in Buckingham where there is a larger African American vote than other areas of this district. But even with a flawed GOP candidate, state Democratic leaders allowed Brennan to be outspent by an almost 2-1 margin, and failed to raise many of the issues with Fariss until late in the campaign when voters had already formed impressions of him. A rematch here in 2013 would likely bring an even closer race as the midterm state voters here are going to be older and more conservative than the additional electorate that a Governor's race might bring out. But even with a flawed incumbent, Brennan may find the job of winning this district to be very tough with a 2-1 population edge for the southern end of the district in Campbell and Appomattox over the northern end in Nelson and Albemarle. This district would likely already be locked down for any other GOP incumbent without the baggage that Matt Farris carries. However, 2013 will likely be the last chance for Democrats to be able to unseat Farris before the stories about him become old news.
Previous Districts Covered
House District #1- Terry Kilgore (Utah)
House District #2- Mark Dudenhefer (Delaware)
House District #3- Will Morefield (Utah)
House District #4- Joe Johnson (Wyoming)
House District #5- Israel O'Quinn (Wyoming)
House District #6- Anne Crockett-Stark (Oklahoma)
House District #7- Nick Rush (Kansas)
House District #8- Greg Habeeb (Arkansas)
House District #9- Charles Poindexter (West Virginia)
House District #10- Randy Minchew (North Carolina)
House District #11- Onzlee Ware (Rhode Island)
House District #12- Joseph Yost (Virginia)
House District #13- Bob Marshall (New Mexico)
House District #14- Danny Marshall (North Carolina)
House District #16- Don Merricks (Mississippi)
House District #17- Chris Head (Tennessee)
House District #19- Lacey Putney (West Virginia)
House District #20- Dickie Bell (Texas)
House District #22- Kathy Byron (Kentucky)
House District #23- Scott Garrett (Idaho)
House District #24- Ben Cline (Arkansas)
House District #25- Steve Landes (Kentucky)
House District #26- Tony Wilt (Mississippi)
House District #28- Bill Howell (Florida)
House District #30- Ed Scott (Montana)
House District #32- Tag Greason (New Hampshire)
House District #33- Joe May (Alaska)
House District #50- Jackson Miller (Michigan)
House District #51- Rich Anderson (Ohio)
House District #52- Luke Torian (Hawaii)
House District #60- James Edmunds (North Carolina)
House District #87- David Ramadan (Washington)
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