The 15th district has long been based where I-66 and I-81 meet on the far edges of northern Virginia in the northern part of the Shenandoah Valley. This is one of the safest GOP seats in Virginia- Andy Guest held it until 2001, Allen Louderback then held it for two terms before Todd Gilbert won the seat in 2005. Gilbert has quickly moved up in leadership and now serves as the Assistant House Majority Leader, leading floor debates for the GOP.
House District #15 (map here)
53.1% of the vote in Shenandoah County
28.1% of the vote in Page County
12.4% of the vote in Warren County
6.3% of the vote in Rockingham County
2012 Major Party Election Results
Mitt Romney 23,410 (65.4%)
Barack Obama 12,382 (34.6%)
George Allen 23,288 (64.8%)
Tim Kaine 12,665 (35.2%)
Bob Goodlatte 24,312 (68.3%)
Andy Schmookler 11,297 (31.7%)
IDAHO- The state the Presidential results most closely match with. Idaho had a margin of 32.8% for Romney, while the 15th Delegate District of Virginia had a margin of 30.8% for Romney.
----------------
The 15th district covers four strongly Republican counties, two of which (Page and Shenandoah) are entirely in the district. In Shenandoah County the results were a 12,538-6,469 (66.0%) victory for Mitt Romney over Barack Obama. In Page, Romney won a 6,344-3,724 (63.0%) victory. The portions of Warren County in the district voted for Romney over Obama by a 2,828-1,619 (63.6%) vote, while the portions of Rockingham County in the district voted 1,700-570 (74.9%) for Romney.
In the Senate race, George Allen defeated Tim Kaine in Shenandoah County by a 12,411-6,630 (65.2%) vote, a 0.8% crossover for Kaine over Obama's numbers. In Page, Allen won a 6,376-3,806 (62.6%) win over Kaine, a crossover of 0.4% for Kaine over Obama. By percentage the largest crossover was in Warren County where Allen won a 2,768-1,682 (62.2%) win, a 1.4% crossover for Kaine over Obama. In Rockingham, Allen won 1,733-547 (76.0%), a crossover for Allen of 1.1% over Romney's vote there.
This legislative district is now entirely in the 6th Congressional district after redistricting which brought Page in from the 7th district and Warren from the 10th district. In Shenandoah County, Bob Goodlatte won by a 13,085-5,795 (69.3%) vote over Andy Schmookler, a 3.3% crossover from Romney. In Page, Goodlatte won by a 6,615-3,533 (65.2%) tally, a 2.2% crossover above Romney. Warren County voted 2,838-1,483 (65.7%) for Goodlatte over Schmookler, a crossover of 2.1%. Finally, Rockingham voted for Goodlatte by a 1,774-486 (78.5%) vote, a 3.6% improvement over Romney's total.
This district is as solidly Republican as almost any other in Virginia. Todd Gilbert is unlikely to find any serious challenge to his re-elections here. The most Democratic part of this district is Page County- which will make anyone who knows statewide politics laugh- as Page is one of the most reliably GOP counties in Virginia. But in this district, Page is the most liberal. Gilbert hopes to move up to Majority Leader when Kirk Cox eventually becomes Speaker so expect to see him continue to focus on his political efforts in Richmond to be as outspoken as possible on behalf of any bills backed by the GOP Caucus. In the last few sessions Gilbert has pushed those boundaries hard and in a few cases had to apologize for crossing over decorum lines- which is all fine for him as he has built a loyal following in the Caucus for what will be a brutal fight for Majority Leader in a future House of Delegates.
Previous Districts Covered
House District #1- Terry Kilgore (Utah)
House District #2- Mark Dudenhefer (Delaware)
House District #3- Will Morefield (Utah)
House District #4- Joe Johnson (Wyoming)
House District #5- Israel O'Quinn (Wyoming)
House District #6- Anne Crockett-Stark (Oklahoma)
House District #7- Nick Rush (Kansas)
House District #8- Greg Habeeb (Arkansas)
House District #9- Charles Poindexter (West Virginia)
House District #10- Randy Minchew (North Carolina)
House District #11- Onzlee Ware (Rhode Island)
House District #12- Joseph Yost (Virginia)
House District #13- Bob Marshall (New Mexico)
House District #14- Danny Marshall (North Carolina)
House District #16- Don Merricks (Mississippi)
House District #17- Chris Head (Tennessee)
House District #19- Lacey Putney (West Virginia)
House District #20- Dickie Bell (Texas)
House District #22- Kathy Byron (Kentucky)
House District #23- Scott Garrett (Idaho)
House District #24- Ben Cline (Arkansas)
House District #25- Steve Landes (Kentucky)
House District #26- Tony Wilt (Mississippi)
House District #28- Bill Howell (Florida)
House District #30- Ed Scott (Montana)
House District #32- Tag Greason (New Hampshire)
House District #33- Joe May (Alaska)
House District #50- Jackson Miller (Michigan)
House District #51- Rich Anderson (Ohio)
House District #52- Luke Torian (Hawaii)
House District #57- David Toscano (Hawaii)
House District #58- Rob Bell (Texas)
House District #59- Matt Fariss (South Dakota)
House District #60- James Edmunds (North Carolina)
House District #87- David Ramadan (Washington)
Comments