The 18th district was held by Creigh Deeds in the 1990's and was then based in the Alleghany Highlands. In 2001, Creigh's district was combined with a district in the Blacksburg area and his district was moved to an area exploding with growth- the far exurbs of Northern Virginia along I-66 past Prince William County. Clay Athey won the seat in 2001 and held it for a decade before retiring. In 2011 the district was redrawn to include even more territory and now has all of Rappahannock County as well as parts of Culpeper County, while still including precincts in Fauquier and Warren. Michael Webert won this seat easily in 2011.
House District #18 (map here)
54.6% of the vote in Fauqiuer County
19.1% of the vote in Warren County
15.7% of the vote in Culpeper County
10.6% of the vote in Rockingham County
2012 Major Party Election Results
Mitt Romney 23,923 (59.1%)
Barack Obama 16,562 (40.9%)
George Allen 23,683 (58.2%)
Tim Kaine 17,015 (41.8%)
Robert Hurt/Bob Goodlatte/Eric Cantor/Rob Wittman 23,641 (60.1%)
John Douglass/Andy Schmookler/Wayne Powell/Adam Cook 15,667 (39.9%)
(Broken down below)
Robert Hurt 13,784 (57.3%)
John Douglass 10,251 (42.7%)
Bob Goodlatte 4,620 (59.6%)
Andy Schmookler 3,128 (40.4%)
Eric Cantor 4,186 (66.0%)
Wayne Powell 2,156 (34.0%)
Rob Wittman 1,333 (56.5%)
Adam Cook 1,027 (43.5%)
SOUTH DAKOTA- The state the Presidential results most closely match with. South Dakota had a margin of 18.4% for Romney, while the 18th Delegate District of Virginia had a margin of 18.2% for Romney.
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The 18th district is based in Fauqiuer County which has over half the district's population. Fauqiuer is split between the 1st and 5th Congressional districts. In the 1st district precincts, Mitt Romney defeated Barack Obama by a 1,333-1,027 (56.5%) vote. In the 5th district precincts here, Romney won by a 11,473-8,271 (58.1%) vote. Three counties west of sprawling Fauqiuer make up the remainder of the district. In Warren County Mitt Romney won a 4,620-3,128 (59.6%) vote. Tiny Rappahannock County is entirely in this district and voted for Romney over Obama by a 2,311-1,980 (53.9%) count. This district also has the more Republican piece of Culpeper County, which voted 4,186-2,156 (66.0%) for Romney.
The Senate race had very close results to the Presidential in most of this district. In the Fauqiuer 1st district precincts, George Allen won a 1,351-1,021 (57.0%) win over Tim Kaine, a 0.5% crossover for Allen above Romney's total. In the Fauqiuer 5th district precincts, Allen won by a 11,219-8,544 (56.8%) margin, a 1.3% bump for Kaine above Obama's vote there. In Warren County, Allen won by a 4,607-3,160 (59.3%) margin, a 0.3% crossover for Kaine from Obama's vote. In Rappahannock the vote was 2,272-2,036 (52.7%) for Allen, a 1.2% crossover for Kaine versus Obama. In Culpeper the vote for Allen was 4,234-2,254 (65.3%), giving Kaine a 0.7% bigger share of the vote than Obama did upballot.
Four Congressional districts overlap with this one State Delegate district. Most of this district's territory used to be in the 10th Congressional district and now there is no overlap with the 10th. In the 1st Congressional district area of Fauqiuer, Rob Wittman defeated Adam Cook by a 1,358-909 (59.9%) count, a 3.4% crossover for Wittman above Romney's vote. Fauqiuer is new to the 5th Congressional district and there was some bigger vote falloff in those precincts. Robert Hurt carried them over John Douglass by a 11,119-7,906 (58.4%) vote, 0.3% better for Hurt than Romney did there despite it being Douglass's home area. Rappahannock County is also now in the 5th district and they voted for Hurt over Douglass by a 2,227-1,945 (53.4%) tally, a 0.5% improvement for Douglass over Obama's vote there. Warren County is now in the 6th district and in these precincts Bob Goodlatte defeated Andy Schmookler by a 4,740-2,833 (62.6%) vote, a 3.0% crossover for Goodlatte over Romney's vote. Culpeper stayed in the 7th district and Eric Cantor defeated Wayne Powell here with a 4,197-2,074 (66.9%) vote, a 0.9% crossover for Cantor above Romney's vote.
One of the ways you can see the end of Northern Virginia at the Prince William/Fauquier County line is the movement of the electorate. From 2000 until 2012, Fauquier moved from a 26 point Bush victory to a 20 point Romney win, a 6 point swing. In that same period Prince William went from an 8 point Bush win to a 16 point Obama win, a 24 point swing. That means Fauquier was 18 points more Republican than Prince William in 2000, but is 36 points more Republican today. Over time the same trends that have hit Northern Virginia may begin to apply further out but so far this district is the line where the blue wave from D.C. comes to an end. Michael Webert is sitting on a very solid vote here and its hard to imagine what it would take to flip it in the immediate future. With areas like Rappahannock County (where the Inn at Little Washington is located) now included in the district there is a more moderate GOP voting block here than before, but Webert would really have to do himself some damage before they will be ready to send a Democrat to Richmond.
Previous Districts Covered
House District #1- Terry Kilgore (Utah)
House District #2- Mark Dudenhefer (Delaware)
House District #3- Will Morefield (Utah)
House District #4- Joe Johnson (Wyoming)
House District #5- Israel O'Quinn (Wyoming)
House District #6- Anne Crockett-Stark (Oklahoma)
House District #7- Nick Rush (Kansas)
House District #8- Greg Habeeb (Arkansas)
House District #9- Charles Poindexter (West Virginia)
House District #10- Randy Minchew (North Carolina)
House District #11- Onzlee Ware (Rhode Island)
House District #12- Joseph Yost (Virginia)
House District #13- Bob Marshall (New Mexico)
House District #14- Danny Marshall (North Carolina)
House District #15- Todd Gilbert (Idaho)
House District #16- Don Merricks (Mississippi)
House District #17- Chris Head (Tennessee)
House District #19- Lacey Putney (West Virginia)
House District #20- Dickie Bell (Texas)
House District #22- Kathy Byron (Kentucky)
House District #23- Scott Garrett (Idaho)
House District #24- Ben Cline (Arkansas)
House District #25- Steve Landes (Kentucky)
House District #26- Tony Wilt (Mississippi)
House District #28- Bill Howell (Florida)
House District #29- Bev Sherwood (Tennessee)
House District #30- Ed Scott (Montana)
House District #32- Tag Greason (New Hampshire)
House District #33- Joe May (Alaska)
House District #50- Jackson Miller (Michigan)
House District #51- Rich Anderson (Ohio)
House District #52- Luke Torian (Hawaii)
House District #57- David Toscano (Hawaii)
House District #58- Rob Bell (Texas)
House District #59- Matt Fariss (South Dakota)
House District #60- James Edmunds (North Carolina)
House District #87- David Ramadan (Washington)
On to NOVA
Posted by: Dandem75 | January 06, 2013 at 01:39 PM