The 29th district has been based in the far northernwestern corner of Virginia since the creation of single member districts. All of Winchester City and portions of surrounding Frederick County continue to make up most of this district. When George Allen was elected Governor in 1993, Bev Sherwood was first elected Delegate from this area, and has held the seat since. Sherwood was contested by a Democratic candidate in her first re-election in 1995, but went without Democratic opposition in 1997, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2009 and 2011. No candidates have announced yet for 2013, so there is a good chance this streak could reach 20 years if Sherwood is not contested this year.
House District #29 (map here)
59.4% of the vote in Frederick County
28.8% of the vote in Winchester City
11.8% of the vote in Warren County
2012 Major Party Election Results
Mitt Romney 21,137 (60.6%)
Barack Obama 13,725 (39.4%)
George Allen 20,671 (58.9%)
Tim Kaine 14,423 (41.1%)
Frank Wolf/Bob Goodlatte 22,983 (69.3%)
Kristin Cabral/Andy Schmookler 10,177 (30.7%)
(Broken down below)
Frank Wolf 20,550 (70.4%)
Kristin Cabral 8,656 (29.6%)
Bob Goodlatte 2,433 (61.5%)
Andy Schmookler 1,521 (38.5%)
TENNESSEE- The state the Presidential results most closely match with. Tennessee had a margin of 20.7% for Romney, while the 29th Delegate District of Virginia had a margin of 21.2% for Romney.
----------------
The City of Winchester is a pretty good bellwether for Virginia- having voted for the statewide winner of every election in the last 20 years with only one exception- supporting George Allen over Jim Webb in 2006. Winchester was pretty close to the statewide results again in 2012, supporting Barack Obama over Mitt Romney by a 5,094-4,946 (50.7%) vote. But Frederick County which surrounds Winchester is very different politically. In the Frederick precincts included in this district, Mitt Romney won a 13,774-6,928 (66.5%) margin over Barack Obama. Finally, a small slice of Warren County is now included in this district which voted for Romney by a 2,417-1,703 (58.7%) vote.
In the Senate race, Winchester again was close to the statewide returns, supporting Tim Kaine by a 5,292-4,816 (52.4%) vote over George Allen. As noted above, this was a change for Winchester from the midterm turnout of 2006 when it supported George Allen over Jim Webb. Kaine's crossover here of 1.7% above Obama's total was also very close to his average statewide crossover. In Frederick County the vote was for Allen was a 13,488-7,358 (64.7%) margin over Kaine, a crossover of 1.8% for Kaine over Obama's tally. In Warren, Allen won by a 2,367-1,773 (57.2%) vote, a crossover for Kaine of 1.5% above Obama's vote.
Winchester and Frederick are both in the 10th Congressional district, while Warren County is now in the 6th Congressional. In Winchester, Frank Wolf defeated Kristin Cabral by a 5,803-3,634 (61.5%) vote, a crossover of 12.2% for Wolf above Romney's vote there. In Frederick, Wolf won by a 14,747-5,022 (74.6%) margin, a crossover of 8.1% above Romney's total. In the Warren County precincts here Bob Goodlatte defeated Andy Schmookler by a 2,433-1,521 (61.5%) margin, a crossover of 2.8% over Romney in an area new to Goodlatte this year.
Bev Sherwood is a strong incumbent for this area and that's shown by the lack of any Democrats willing to take her on for almost 20 years. Should Sherwood leave this seat open though it could be a very interesting campaign if Democrats convinced former Winchester School Board member Karen Schultz to run. Schultz ran in 2007 for the Virginia Senate and lost by less than a 51-49 margin to Jill Holtzman Vogel in the precincts in Winchester and Frederick that are included in this district. The Warren County precincts were not in that Senate district but are roughly equal to the average between Frederick and Winchester so there is no reason to expect they would vote dramatically different. What makes the numbers for Schultz so impressive here is that Vogel is herself a strong candidate and had the endorsement of the Washington Post. It's highly unlikely that the GOP could field another candidate of Vogel's quality here in an open seat, so if the House Democrats were able to convince Schultz to run in an open seat then you could expect to see this seat potentially flip sides. That all said- it is up to Sherwood how long she wants this seat and it may not be open anytime in the immediate future.
Previous Districts Covered
House District #1- Terry Kilgore (Utah)
House District #2- Mark Dudenhefer (Delaware)
House District #3- Will Morefield (Utah)
House District #4- Joe Johnson (Wyoming)
House District #5- Israel O'Quinn (Wyoming)
House District #6- Anne Crockett-Stark (Oklahoma)
House District #7- Nick Rush (Kansas)
House District #8- Greg Habeeb (Arkansas)
House District #9- Charles Poindexter (West Virginia)
House District #10- Randy Minchew (North Carolina)
House District #11- Onzlee Ware (Rhode Island)
House District #12- Joseph Yost (Virginia)
House District #13- Bob Marshall (New Mexico)
House District #14- Danny Marshall (North Carolina)
House District #15- Todd Gilbert (Idaho)
House District #16- Don Merricks (Mississippi)
House District #17- Chris Head (Tennessee)
House District #19- Lacey Putney (West Virginia)
House District #20- Dickie Bell (Texas)
House District #22- Kathy Byron (Kentucky)
House District #23- Scott Garrett (Idaho)
House District #24- Ben Cline (Arkansas)
House District #25- Steve Landes (Kentucky)
House District #26- Tony Wilt (Mississippi)
House District #28- Bill Howell (Florida)
House District #30- Ed Scott (Montana)
House District #32- Tag Greason (New Hampshire)
House District #33- Joe May (Alaska)
House District #50- Jackson Miller (Michigan)
House District #51- Rich Anderson (Ohio)
House District #52- Luke Torian (Hawaii)
House District #57- David Toscano (Hawaii)
House District #58- Rob Bell (Texas)
House District #59- Matt Fariss (South Dakota)
House District #60- James Edmunds (North Carolina)
House District #87- David Ramadan (Washington)
Comments