The 67th district was placed in Chesterfield County just south of Richmond when single member districts were created in 1982. Democratic majorities began to soften when Republicans picked up seats in the suburbs of Richmond and Hampton Roads in the 1980's and this seat went into GOP hands when (now Senator and Lt. Governor candidate) Steve Martin won it in 1987. In the 1991 redistricting, Democrats consolidated the Richmond area GOP seats and moved the 67th to western Fairfax County. Roger McClure kept it in Republican hands in Fairfax and held it through the 1990's. By 1999 McClure was under siege for tax problems and barely held on 51-49 that year while Republicans were taking an outright House of Delegates majority for the first time. McClure sensed his problems and immediately retired. With the heavy growth in western Fairfax the seat became smaller in size in the 2001 redistricting consolidated in mostly the Chantilly area. With an open seat in a GOP leaning district available, three Republicans stepped forward to run. Moderate Sully District School Board member Gary Reese won 40-31-29 with two more conservative candidates splitting the conservative vote. Managing one of those conservative candidates was local GOP activist Ken Cuccinelli, not yet elected to anything but using his activism to build his own base of support. In 2002 Cuccinelli was able to win the Virginia Senate seat that this district most overlapped with and began taking total control of the local party apparatus for conservatives. At the same time Reese was moving even more strongly to the middle and casting a number of votes that upset his right wing base including supporting the transportation tax referendum in 2002 and the Warner budget in 2004. In the 2005 primary Reese found himself challenged by local youth minister Chris Craddock who had the backing of the Cuccinelli organization. Craddock crushed Reese, opening the door for Chuck Caputo to step forward as the Democratic candidate. After a campaign full of gaffes by Craddock this district turned into a blowout win and pickup for Caputo and the Democrats. In 2007 Caputo was successful again but by a much more narrow margin than in his first election and by 2009 the GOP wave brought this seat back to the Republicans and Delegate Jim LeMunyon. The 67th was mostly kept intact in the 2011 redistricting and LeMunyon cruised to his first re-election under the new lines.
House District #67 (map here)
89.4% of the vote in Fairfax County
10.6% of the vote in Loudoun County
2012 Major Party Election Results
Barack Obama 22,890 (54.5%)
Mitt Romney 19,123 (45.5%)
Tim Kaine 23,313 (55.4%)
George Allen 18,785 (44.6%)
Frank Wolf/Chris Perkins 22,377 (56.4%)
Kristin Cabral/Gerry Connolly 17,312 (43.6%)
(Broken down below)
Frank Wolf 20,498 (57.4%)
Kristin Cabral 15,243 (42.6%)
Gerry Connolly 3,069 (62.0%)
Chris Perkins 1,879 (38.0%)
MICHIGAN- The state the Presidential results most closely match with. Michigan had a margin of 9.6% for Obama, while the 67th Delegate District of Virginia had a margin of 9.0% for Obama.
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The 67th district includes most of the Chantilly area of Fairfax County and crosses the border for one small area of Loudoun County. The Loudoun County portion of this district voted 2,237-2,211 (50.3%) for Mitt Romney over Barack Obama. On the Fairfax side of the 67th district precincts are included that overlap with both the 10th and 11th Congressional districts. The most strongly Democratic areas in the district are the precincts with heavy townhouse and apartment density off Rts. 50 and 28. Those precincts are split between the 10th and 11th. On the 11th district side of the line, Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney by a 3,200-1,985 (61.7%) vote, while those nearby 10th district precincts voted for Obama over Romney by a 6,770-5,092 (57.1%) count on election day. In the less dense precincts of Chantilly and parts of Centreville that are included in this district Barack Obama won but the margin was much closer- a 5,133-4,741 (52.0%) win over Mitt Romney. Finally the district stretches to precincts outside of Vienna that are rural in feel and extremely wealthy. In those precincts Mitt Romney won a 2,351-2,119 (52.6%) win over Barack Obama on election day.
The Senate race between Tim Kaine and George Allen closely tracked the Presidential results here. The Loudoun voters in this district gave Kaine a 2,238-2,197 (50.5%) win over Allen- a 0.8% improvement for Kaine over Obama's numbers. In the 11th district density areas of this district, Kaine won by a 3,223-1,986 (61.9%) count, a 0.2% bump for Kaine over Obama's vote. Same in the 10th district density areas on election day, where Kaine won by a 6,863-4,999 (57.9%) vote over Allen, a 0.8% crossover for Kaine over Obama's tally. The vote totals were also very similar to the Presidential race in the more Republican areas of Centreville and Chantilly with less density. Kaine won these precincts on election day by a 5,184-4,714 (52.4%) vote over Allen, a 0.4% crossover for Kaine from Obama's numbers. One area of the district where there was a big crossover was in the very wealthy and rural feeling areas of the district just outside Vienna. Tim Kaine prevailed there over George Allen by a 2,265-2,232 (50.3%) vote, a 2.9% crossover for Kaine over Obama's vote total there.
In the Congressional race the Loudoun portion of this district supported Frank Wolf over Kristin Cabral by a 2,579-1,689 (60.4%) vote, a 10.1% bump for Wolf over Romney's numbers there. Wolf also dominated in those wealthy precincts just outside Vienna, winning by a 2,698-1,675 (61.7%) vote over Cabral, a 9.1% crossover for him above Romney's vote there. The less dense areas of Chantilly and Centreville included in this district also supported Wolf by a 5,689-3,918 (59.2%) vote, a 11.2% crossover for Wolf there above Romney's vote. In the more dense precincts in the 10th district Wolf continued to pull Democratic votes, winning by a 6,285-5,190 (54.8%) vote over Cabral, or a 11.9% crossover above Romney's blowout loss there. In the 11th district density precincts, Gerry Connolly won by a 3,069-1,879 (62.0%) vote over Chris Perkins. There was a lot of dropoff voters in this race, but the falloff here gave Connolly a 0.3% better performance than Obama in these precincts.
It's hard to gauge the real strength or weakness of the incumbent Jim LeMunyon because so much of the change in performance of this seat has to do with turnout in state election years and not crossover voting. LeMunyon has worked hard to try to be seen as a solutions oriented moderate and he's been working his district hard. Right now there are no serious Democratic candidates talking about a run here in 2013 or even on the horizon for the party. Unlike the rest of Fairfax County, this area has long been GOP controlled and there just isn't as much Democratic infrastructure in Sully as in eastern Fairfax. Kathy Smith or Ted Velkoff from the Fairfax County School Board would be logical candidates but neither has shown even a hint of interest of moving on to Richmond. The local Fairfax Supervisor for much of this district is also a Republican, Mike Frey. Other potential Democratic candidates like Lu Ann McNabb (who considered a run against Cuccinelli in 2007), and Kathy Caputo Worek have shown no interest in running either. Often times you can tell a lot about an incumbent's strength in a marginal district by who is choosing not to run as opposed to who ends up running against them. If that is the test, LeMunyon looks hard to unseat even with this being a Democratic leaning seat.
Previous Districts Covered
House District #1- Terry Kilgore (Utah)
House District #2- Mark Dudenhefer (Delaware)
House District #3- Will Morefield (Utah)
House District #4- Joe Johnson (Wyoming)
House District #5- Israel O'Quinn (Wyoming)
House District #6- Anne Crockett-Stark (Oklahoma)
House District #7- Nick Rush (Kansas)
House District #8- Greg Habeeb (Arkansas)
House District #9- Charles Poindexter (West Virginia)
House District #10- Randy Minchew (North Carolina)
House District #11- Onzlee Ware (Rhode Island)
House District #12- Joseph Yost (Virginia)
House District #13- Bob Marshall (New Mexico)
House District #14- Danny Marshall (North Carolina)
House District #15- Todd Gilbert (Idaho)
House District #16- Don Merricks (Mississippi)
House District #17- Chris Head (Tennessee)
House District #18- Michael Webert (South Dakota)
House District #19- Lacey Putney (West Virginia)
House District #20- Dickie Bell (Texas)
House District #22- Kathy Byron (Kentucky)
House District #23- Scott Garrett (Idaho)
House District #24- Ben Cline (Arkansas)
House District #25- Steve Landes (Kentucky)
House District #26- Tony Wilt (Mississippi)
House District #28- Bill Howell (Florida)
House District #29- Bev Sherwood (Tennessee)
House District #30- Ed Scott (Montana)
House District #31- Scott Lingamfelter (Minnesota)
House District #32- Tag Greason (New Hampshire)
House District #33- Joe May (Alaska)
House District #36- Ken Plum (Rhode Island)
House District #50- Jackson Miller (Michigan)
House District #51- Rich Anderson (Ohio)
House District #52- Luke Torian (Hawaii)
House District #57- David Toscano (Hawaii)
House District #58- Rob Bell (Texas)
House District #59- Matt Fariss (South Dakota)
House District #60- James Edmunds (North Carolina)
House District #86- Tom Rust (Massachusetts)
House District #87- David Ramadan (Washington)
Strange, that this district which is clearly more Democratic than Comstock's is seen as such a tough lift by Democratic candidates. I know Dems intend to recruit strong candidates in Obama-Kaine seats this strong... So do we think that Cuccinelli's presence at the top of the ticket is viewed as a deterrent to anyone throwing their hat in the ring here? One would think, particularly after his bruising race with Oleszek that Cuccinelli wouldn't have that much downticket pull in his old Senate district...
Posted by: Dandem75 | January 30, 2013 at 11:27 PM
Good point Dan, if a Dem ran this would be a good year to do it because of Cuccinelli on top of the ticket. This district knows him very well, and I don't think he will carry it anymore.
Posted by: notlarrysabato | January 31, 2013 at 08:12 AM