When Republicans were attempting to march to their first House of Delegates majority in the 1990's, the 86th district was at the center of the political universe. Based in Norfolk next to the district of Speaker Tom Moss, every election in the 86th district was decided by less than 1,000 votes. In 1993 and 1995, incumbent George Heilig held off stiff challenges from George Schaeffer, husband of future Norfolk Delegate Paula Miller and now the Democratic Clerk of the Court in Norfolk. When the seat was left open in 1997 it went to Don Williams- by just 8 votes. In 1999 Williams was narrowly re-elected but Democrats lost control of the House statewide. During redistricting, this seat was then eliminated from the Norfolk area where voters had narrowly spurned Republicans and put into the rapidly growing areas on the Fairfax/Loudoun border in the Dulles corridor. Herndon Mayor Tom Rust easily won this seat in 2001, and won big over the same opponent in 2003. After the Mark Warner tax package vote where Rust voted "Yea", he was left unopposed in 2005 at Warner's request. By 2007, the politics here was moving quickly towards the Democrats and Rust narrowly survived a challenge from Jay Donahue. In 2009 Rust had another scare and narrowly survived a challenge from Loudoun Supervisor Stevens Miller. After those two close calls, Rust was left unopposed in 2011 in the first election under the newest district lines that shifted this district even more strongly to the Fairfax side of the border.
House District #86 (map here)
87.1% of the vote in Fairfax County
12.9% of the vote in Loudoun County
2012 Major Party Election Results
Barack Obama 22,528 (60.9%)
Mitt Romney 14,441 (39.1%)
Tim Kaine 22,756 (61.4%)
George Allen 14,310 (38.6%)
Kristin Cabral/Gerry Connolly 19,313 (54.3%)
Frank Wolf/Chris Perkins 16,262 (45.7%)
(Broken down below)
Frank Wolf 10,704 (54.8%)
Kristin Cabral 8,830 (45.2%)
Gerry Connolly 10,483 (65.4%)
Chris Perkins 5,558 (34.6%)
MASSACHUSETTS- The state the Presidential results most closely match with. Massachusetts had a margin of 23.6% for Obama, while the 86th Delegate District of Virginia had a margin of 21.9% for Obama.
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The most strongly Democratic part of this district are the 11th district precincts in the Town of Herndon and nearby just outside Town limits. In these precincts Barack Obama won a 11,144-5,723 (66.1%) vote over Mitt Romney. Further out from the town to the north, east and south the district includes precincts in Fairfax County from the 10th Congressional district. In these precincts, Barack Obama prevailed by a much more competitive vote of 8,563-6,771 (55.8%) over Mitt Romney. In the Loudoun County areas included in this district Obama won a 2,821-1,947 (59.2%) margin over Romney.
In the Senate race, Tim Kaine won an almost identical margin over George Allen that Barack Obama had won over Mitt Romney in the Fairfax County 11th district precincts here. The vote was 11,161-5,707 (66.2%) for Kaine, a 0.1% bump over Obama's numbers. In the more competitive precincts here that overlap with the 10th Congressional district, Kaine won a larger crossover- carrying those precincts by a 8,817-6,608 (57.2%) vote over Allen, a 1.4% improvement for Kaine from Obama's totals. In the Loudoun precincts, the crossover shifted, with Kaine winning a 2,778-1,995 (58.2%) win over Allen, representing a 1.0% increase for Allen over Romney's performance there.
About 6% of voters in the 11th district precincts here that voted in the Presidential and Senate races chose not to cast ballots in the Congressional race. That gave both Gerry Connolly and Chris Perkins less raw votes than their Presidential candidates received. Connolly won these precincts by a 10,483-5,558 (65.4%) vote, a 0.7% improvement for Perkins over Romney's percentage because of falloff voters. Frank Wolf has long represented many of the precincts south of the town of Herndon and has built up a lot of popularity here- which showed in these numbers against Kristin Cabral this year. Wolf won the Fairfax County 10th district precincts in this district by a 8,319-6,619 (55.7%) vote over Cabral, a 11.5% crossover above Romney's total here. On the Loudoun side of the line, Wolf won a 2,385-2,211 (51.9%) vote over Cabral, an 11.1% crossover above Romney's percentage there.
In 2013, two Democrats have already stepped forward to challenge Tom Rust. Jennifer Boysko, the Herndon area aide to Fairfax County Supervisor John Foust, and Herbert Kemp a retired military veteran and political activist. I never think it's appropriate to tell someone they shouldn't run for office as everyone should run if they want to. But this is not going to be a competitive primary and I expect to see Boysko run away with it with a large landslide behind her- making Kemp's decision to run puzzling to me. Perhaps he doesn't fully understand what he is up against.
In terms of the Rust-Boysko matchup that will occur this November it is appropriate that this district most closely matched the results in Massachusetts. That's because Rust is very similar to Scott Brown- a well liked figure with a moderate voting record for a Republican who works his area hard with constituent service, while Boysko is very similar to Elizabeth Warren in her progressive values, longtime activism, grassroots enthusiasm and sharp knowledge of issues. We know how that Massachusetts race turned out downballot from the Presidential race last November, but an off year electorate is very different both in the Bay State and here in the Dulles corridor. Rust has faced tough challenges before and his popularity in the Town of Herndon where he served as Mayor before becoming Delegate makes it especially hard to unseat him because his strength of support comes from the most Democratic area of the district. However Boysko has been serving as the Herndon aide to Supervisor John Foust, who carried the town by a nearly 20 point margin in 2011, so she may have built some political strength there herself with that association and work. Given how strong both candidates look right now it's fair to expect this to be one of the marquee House of Delegates races in 2013.
Previous Districts Covered
House District #1- Terry Kilgore (Utah)
House District #2- Mark Dudenhefer (Delaware)
House District #3- Will Morefield (Utah)
House District #4- Joe Johnson (Wyoming)
House District #5- Israel O'Quinn (Wyoming)
House District #6- Anne Crockett-Stark (Oklahoma)
House District #7- Nick Rush (Kansas)
House District #8- Greg Habeeb (Arkansas)
House District #9- Charles Poindexter (West Virginia)
House District #10- Randy Minchew (North Carolina)
House District #11- Onzlee Ware (Rhode Island)
House District #12- Joseph Yost (Virginia)
House District #13- Bob Marshall (New Mexico)
House District #14- Danny Marshall (North Carolina)
House District #15- Todd Gilbert (Idaho)
House District #16- Don Merricks (Mississippi)
House District #17- Chris Head (Tennessee)
House District #18- Michael Webert (South Dakota)
House District #19- Lacey Putney (West Virginia)
House District #20- Dickie Bell (Texas)
House District #22- Kathy Byron (Kentucky)
House District #23- Scott Garrett (Idaho)
House District #24- Ben Cline (Arkansas)
House District #25- Steve Landes (Kentucky)
House District #26- Tony Wilt (Mississippi)
House District #28- Bill Howell (Florida)
House District #29- Bev Sherwood (Tennessee)
House District #30- Ed Scott (Montana)
House District #31- Scott Lingamfelter (Minnesota)
House District #32- Tag Greason (New Hampshire)
House District #33- Joe May (Alaska)
House District #50- Jackson Miller (Michigan)
House District #51- Rich Anderson (Ohio)
House District #52- Luke Torian (Hawaii)
House District #57- David Toscano (Hawaii)
House District #58- Rob Bell (Texas)
House District #59- Matt Fariss (South Dakota)
House District #60- James Edmunds (North Carolina)
House District #87- David Ramadan (Washington)
Thanks for this analysis, confirms my thoughts.
Posted by: Jerelwilmore | January 20, 2013 at 01:14 PM
Big question to me is whether Rust can put enough distance between himself and the hard right pro gun, anti choice, anti health reform, anti NOVA transportation crowd in Richmond. Rust has cast some votes he'll have to answer for that are out of step with NOVA. Also curious how the Dulles Metro issue will play out.
Kemp won't be close to a match for Boysko who has a strong advantage in the breadth and depth of local knowledge, involvement and contacts.
Posted by: Dsquared75 | January 20, 2013 at 03:38 PM