The following Democratic seats are in jeopardy of flipping to the GOP under these new lines:
21st District- John Edwards. The current maps had all of strongly Democratic Roanoke City in Edwards district, with him crossing the mountains into Montgomery County and picking up strongly Democratic Blacksburg. Under the new lines Edwards continues to have Roanoke, but now shoots out into much deeper southwest Virginia into highly GOP areas. This seat is now very much in play.
38th District- Phil Puckett- Republicans almost unseated Puckett in 2011, so now they have made some minor changes to his district, running him into Scott and Lee counties, both of which are strongly GOP. Under the new lines, Puckett may not have won in 2011.
1st District- John Miller- Under these new lines Miller's district runs into much more strongly GOP areas like Poquoson City and has a strong chance of flipping to the GOP.
39th District- George Barker- The new gerrymandered 39th that ran Barker from his home in Clifton to strongly Democratic precincts in the City of Alexandria would be gone under this map. Now Barker would have a compact district around Clifton, Fairfax Station and Burke. This is a competitive seat rather than the strongly Democratic one that Barker struggled to win last year, so while another Democrat might win here, Barker would be highly vulnerable.
29th District- Chuck Colgan- Colgan's seat had strongly Democratic precincts in Dale City and Manassas Park taken out of his district and replaced with strongly GOP ones in Northern Prince William. This is similar to the seat Colgan held before this last redistricting, which is one he was able to win but would have been very likely to flip parties when he retires. Given that Colgan has said this term will be his last, that's likely to be in 2015.
In addition to those five seats, Republicans have made the 6th (Ralph Northam) and 33rd (Mark Herring) Senate seats more Republican so they would have a better chance of winning them in a special election if either is elected statewide this year. Northam is running for Lt. Governor, while Herring is running for Attorney General.
That's 7 Democratic seats put into play- potentially pulling the Senate from 20-20 to 27-13.
In addition, Creigh Deeds saw his seat eliminated and moved to become a majority-minority seat in southside, so that will be a Democratic hold but with a new Senator. Dave Marsden saw major changes to his seat, bringing him into southern Prince William County in a majority-PWC seat and could face a primary challenge from Supervisor Frank Principi who has been preparing a Senate run for an open Toddy Puller seat and now has his political base drawn into Marsden's seat.
Janet Howell and Toddy Puller both saw major changes to their seats as well, but they returned back to the 1990's version of the seats that both have won before- with Howell representing Reston, Herndon, Great Falls and McLean, while Puller has all of south county in the Lee and Mt. Vernon districts back in her district.
Finally, Republicans made Chap Petersen's district shift west, and that seat could be competitive if Chap were to run statewide and leave it open. Dick Saslaw was given a strongly Democratic district but the lines take much of his political base out leaving him vulnerable to a primary challenge.
That's 13 of 20 Democratic seats with pretty major changes. The five current majority-minority districts were left intact with current incumbents Don McEachin, Henry Marsh, Louise Lucas, Mamie Locke and Kenny Alexander while deep inner Northern Virginia still has Adam Ebbin and Barbara Favola in very safe seats.
With the House of Delegates currently having a 68-32 Republican Super-Majority, a 27-13 Republican Super-Majority in the Senate would allow them to override any veto of a Democratic Governor elected.