Since the creation of single member districts, the 37th House district has been centered in central Fairfax County and has always included most or all of the City of Fairfax. Republicans held this seat throughout the 1980's and Jane Woods launched her political career here as a Delegate from 1987 to 1991. When the Democrats combined a number of Republicans in various districts in the 1991 redistricting, Woods ran for the State Senate seat held by Emilie Miller while the 37th Delegate district was handed off to then-40th district Delegate Bob Harris. Harris died in office in 1996, and Republicans held his seat in a special election when Jack Rust defeated Julia Lyman. Lyman had defeated two other Democrats for the nomination- Les Schoene who then ran against Rust in 1997 as the Democratic nominee, and Chap Petersen who defeated Rust in 2001 after Rust had run unopposed in 1999. Petersen won a rematch in 2003, then left this seat open to run for Lt. Governor. David Bulova, son of now Fairfax County Chairwoman Sharon Bulova won the Democratic nomination, then narrowly defeated former Fairfax City Mayor John Mason. Bulova ran well behind the statewide ticket of Kaine, Byrne and Deeds that year but was able to prevail because of the exploding Democratic margins in this seat. Jim Gilmore had won here in 1997 with a 58-42 margin, Mark Warner won by a 53-47 margin in 2001 and by 2005 Tim Kaine was winning here by a 60-40 margin, enough to bring Bulova in with him. Republicans let Bulova run unopposed in 2007 and 2009. Bulova's next contested election was 2011 under new lines that shifted this seat to include more of Fairfax County west of Fairfax City rather than east. While shifting a district west in Fairfax usually makes it more Republican, the precincts Bulova picked up were strongly Democratic ones that Jim LeMunyon and Tim Hugo wanted to lose in redistricting. Under the new lines in 2011 Bulova easily won a 4th term.
House District #37 (map here)
67.6% of the vote in Fairfax County
32.4% of the vote in Fairfax City
2012 Major Party Election Results
Barack Obama 21,586 (61.3%)
Mitt Romney 13,646 (38.7%)
Tim Kaine 21,724 (61.7%)
George Allen 13,508 (38.3%)
Gerry Connolly/Kristin Cabral 20,450 (60.9%)
Chris Perkins/Frank Wolf 13,144 (39.1%)
(Broken down below)
Gerry Connolly 19,705 (61.1%)
Chris Perkins 12,564 (38.9%)
Kristin Cabral 745 (56.2%)
Frank Wolf 580 (43.8%)
MASSACHUSETTS- The state the Presidential results most closely match with. Massachusetts had a margin of 23.6% for Obama, while the 37th Delegate District of Virginia had a margin of 22.5% for Obama.
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The City of Fairfax continues to be the largest single community base in the 37th district under the new lines but not much else remains in the district from its former roots. In Fairfax City, Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney by a 6,651-4,775 (58.2%) vote. The Fairfax County precincts included in the 37th are mostly communities that neighboring Republicans did not want, and are randomly thrown into the 37th in various directions around Fairfax City. The district includes one area near the Vienna metro that is highly dense and where residents can walk to the metro. That precinct voted for Barack Obama over Mitt Romney by a 1,424-675 (67.8%) vote. The district also includes the precinct created for George Mason University voters living on campus to vote at where Obama defeated Romney by a 1,187-354 (77.0%) vote. South of Fairfax City, the 37th includes two Braddock district precincts that are more politically competitive and where Bulova lives. On election day Barack Obama won those precincts by a 1,792-1,771 (50.3%) vote over Mitt Romney. The district now also includes three highly dense voting precincts clustered around Fair Oaks mall and the Fairfax County government center. There, Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney by a 3,934-2,604 (60.2%) tally. Finally, the district now includes three highly dense precincts in Centreville in the Sully district. In the two that are in the 11th Congressional district, Barack Obama won by a 3,472-1,765 (66.3%) vote over Mitt Romney. In the precinct in the 10th Congressional district the margin was 892-502 (64.0%) for Obama over Romney.
The Senate race saw similar results districtwide to the Presidential race but with different splits in the various areas of the 37th. In Fairfax City, Tim Kaine defeated George Allen by a 6,728-4,682 (59.0%) vote. That was a 0.8% crossover for Kaine over Obama's vote there. In the precinct near Vienna metro, Tim Kaine won by a 1,423-667 (68.1%) vote over George Allen, a crossover of 0.3% for Kaine over Obama which was driven by some vote fall-off for Allen from Romney. On the campus of GMU the vote for Kaine was 1,182-371 (76.1%) over Allen, a 0.9% improvement for Allen over Romney's showing there. The crossover shifts back towards Tim Kaine in the precincts south of Fairfax City that are more competitive politically. There, Kaine won by a 1,848-1,732 (51.6%) vote over Allen, a 1.3% crossover for Tim Kaine over Barack Obama. In the precincts around Fair Oaks mall the vote was 3,978-2,572 (60.7%) for Kaine over Allen, a 0.5% improvement for Kaine over Obama's tally. The 11th district Centreville precincts are heavily minority, and Tim Kaine defeated George Allen by a 3,449-1,789 (65.8%) vote. As we've seen in many areas around the state with a strong minority vote, Allen won a small crossover- 0.5% better than Romney's showing there. The same happened in the one Centreville precinct in the 10th district where Tim Kaine won by a 875-518 (62.8%) vote over George Allen, a 1.2% crossover for Allen over Romney's vote.
In the Congressional races the same general voting patterns continued. In Fairfax City, Gerry Connolly defeated Chris Perkins by a 6,329-4,539 (58.2%) vote. There was voter falloff for both candidates, but Connolly's 58.2% was identical to Obama's 58.2% in the City. Near Vienna Metro the vote was for Gerry Connolly by a 1,383-608 (69.5%) margin over Chris Perkins. Connolly's lower falloff rate than Perkins there gave him a 1.7% better showing than Obama. On the campus of GMU, Connolly won by a 1,074-357 (75.0%) tally, a 2.0% better showing for Perkins than Romney in the only Fairfax precinct where Chris Perkins got more raw votes than Mitt Romney. In the competitive precincts south of Fairfax City, Gerry Connolly prevailed by a 1,760-1,700 (50.9%) vote over Chris Perkins. That was a 0.6% better showing for Connolly than Obama in those precincts. In the precincts around Fair Oaks mall there was a lot of voter falloff in the Congressional race. Gerry Connolly won there by a 3,742-2,528 (59.7%) margin, a 0.5% better showing for Perkins than Romney in the same precincts. That same voter falloff impacted the two Centreville 11th district precincts here, where Gerry Connolly won by a 3,264-1,693 (65.8%) vote over Chris Perkins, again a 0.5% better showing for Perkins than Romney. In the one 10th district precinct, Kristin Cabral defeated Frank Wolf by a 745-580 (56.2%) vote. Still that was a 7.8% better showing for Wolf than Romney got in the same area.
The old 37th district filled with many independent voters no longer exists. The only portion of the district where that remains is in Fairfax City and a couple of Braddock District precincts just south of the City. The rest of the district is packed with high density, Democratic leaning voters that don't do a lot of crossover voting. This new district makes David Bulova very safe as long as turnout is decent. However, in a low turnout special election or similar general election cycle, many of these Democratic precincts would fall off the map in turnout and the district would likely go for whoever carried the City of Fairfax. That can be trickier than it might appear from the vote totals as the City is known for voting for candidates they like regardless of party in these more local races. Given that Republicans gave Bulova two free passes in 2007 and 2009 under much more favorable lines for them- don't be surprised to see Bulova uncontested in most elections for the rest of the decade if he decides to stay in the House. One final note- this district had the longest active streak of having a Delegate of the same party as the Governor until the 2009 election when that was snapped after 12 straight years. Now the longest streak in the Commonwealth is tied between a few districts- including the neighboring 67th district- at 8 years going into this election.
Previous Districts Covered
House District #1- Terry Kilgore (Utah)
House District #2- Mark Dudenhefer (Delaware)
House District #3- Will Morefield (Utah)
House District #4- Joe Johnson (Wyoming)
House District #5- Israel O'Quinn (Wyoming)
House District #6- Anne Crockett-Stark (Oklahoma)
House District #7- Nick Rush (Kansas)
House District #8- Greg Habeeb (Arkansas)
House District #9- Charles Poindexter (West Virginia)
House District #10- Randy Minchew (North Carolina)
House District #11- Onzlee Ware (Rhode Island)
House District #12- Joseph Yost (Virginia)
House District #13- Bob Marshall (New Mexico)
House District #14- Danny Marshall (North Carolina)
House District #15- Todd Gilbert (Idaho)
House District #16- Don Merricks (Mississippi)
House District #17- Chris Head (Tennessee)
House District #18- Michael Webert (South Dakota)
House District #19- Lacey Putney (West Virginia)
House District #20- Dickie Bell (Texas)
House District #22- Kathy Byron (Kentucky)
House District #23- Scott Garrett (Idaho)
House District #24- Ben Cline (Arkansas)
House District #25- Steve Landes (Kentucky)
House District #26- Tony Wilt (Mississippi)
House District #28- Bill Howell (Florida)
House District #29- Bev Sherwood (Tennessee)
House District #30- Ed Scott (Montana)
House District #31- Scott Lingamfelter (Minnesota)
House District #32- Tag Greason (New Hampshire)
House District #33- Joe May (Alaska)
House District #36- Ken Plum (Rhode Island)
House District #40- Tim Hugo (North Carolina)
House District #50- Jackson Miller (Michigan)
House District #51- Rich Anderson (Ohio)
House District #52- Luke Torian (Hawaii)
House District #57- David Toscano (Hawaii)
House District #58- Rob Bell (Texas)
House District #59- Matt Fariss (South Dakota)
House District #60- James Edmunds (North Carolina)
House District #67- Jim LeMunyon (Michigan)
House District #86- Tom Rust (Massachusetts)
House District #87- David Ramadan (Washington)
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