The 42nd district is one of only two districts (the other being the 40th) that were placed in Fairfax County when single member districts were created in 1982 and have never elected a Democrat to the House of Delegates. Warren Barry first held this seat when it was created, then handed it off to Bob Cunningham in 1983 when Barry was elected Clerk of the Court for Fairfax. Cunningham held the seat for five terms before retiring in declining health. Dave Albo won this open seat in 1993 downballot from the George Allen electoral landslide for Governor and has now held it for twenty years. Albo faced his toughest re-election fight in 2005 with Greg Werkheiser downballot from Tim Kaine's win and strong showing in Northern Virginia- but he survived it 52-48 with a large crossover vote. Albo won a rematch easily over Werkheiser in 2009 downballot from Bob McDonnell's strong win. Albo also won contested races in 1993, 1995, 1997, 2001, and 2011 in addition to his 2005 and 2009 victories over Werkheiser. Dave Albo was uncontested in three straight midterm elections in 1999, 2003 and 2007 before being contested in the 2011 midterm. As a now senior member of the GOP, Albo is Chairman of the Courts of Justice Committee.
House District #42 (map here)
100% of the vote in Fairfax County
2012 Major Party Election Results
Barack Obama 22,096 (53.3%)
Mitt Romney 19,376 (46.7%)
Tim Kaine 22,530 (54.3%)
George Allen 18,957 (45.7%)
Gerry Connolly/Kristin Cabral/Jim Moran 20,825 (51.9%)
Chris Perkins/Frank Wolf/Patrick Murray 19,329 (48.1%)
(Broken down below)
Gerry Connolly 14,608 (58.1%)
Chris Perkins 10,534 (41.9%)
Frank Wolf 6,242 (61.6%)
Kristin Cabral 3,885 (38.4%)
Patrick Murray 2,553 (52.3%)
Jim Moran 2,332 (47.7%)
NEVADA- The state the Presidential results most closely match with. Nevada had a margin of 6.8% for Obama, while the 42nd Delegate District of Virginia had a margin of 6.6% for Obama.
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The 42nd district has been gerrymandered into the dream district for Delegate Dave Albo. The district population is based in neighborhoods near West Springfield High School where Albo went to school and where large numbers of voters know him and his parents. The district then moves south to include Albo's home in southern Fairfax County and stretches to include strongly Republican parts of Fairfax Station to the west and strongly Republican parts of Mt. Vernon up the Potomac River to the east. The precincts around West Springfield voted for Barack Obama over Mitt Romney by a 7,943-6,458 (55.2%) count on election day. The most Democratic precincts are the areas in southern Fairfax County in the Lorton area that stayed in the district to keep it all connected together. In those precincts the vote on election day was for Obama by a 4,793-2,859 (62.6%) margin over Romney. That is also the line where the 11th Congressional district ends. The 10th district now takes in most of Fairfax Station and stretches across the Fairfax Parkway to include the high income neighborhoods adjacent to South Run Park. In these precincts Mitt Romney prevailed by a 5,834-4,549 (56.2%) vote over Barack Obama. Finally the district goes through rural areas in Gunston precinct to also grab Westgate precinct- home of former Senator George Allen and a precinct that includes the Mt. Vernon estate. Obviously the incomes in this area are also very high and there is little density, and Mitt Romney prevailed in these precincts by a 2,656-2,388 (52.7%) vote over Barack Obama.
In the Senate race, Tim Kaine defeated George Allen by a 8,147-6,295 (56.4%) vote in the precincts around West Springfield, a 1.2% crossover for Kaine above Obama's showing there. In the Lorton area precincts, Kaine defeated Allen by a 4,752-2,858 (62.4%) vote, a 0.2% better showing for Allen than Romney- a pattern we have seen in many areas with a large minority population- that mostly are giving Allen a slightly better showing than Romney in percentage. Crossing into the 10th district precincts in the Fairfax Station area- George Allen defeats Tim Kaine by a 5,654-4,756 (54.3%) vote, a 1.9% better showing for Kaine than Obama got there- again a pattern we have seen in many high income areas around the state. Finally, Allen won the Mt. Vernon precincts around his home by a 2,627-2,434 (51.9%) margin over Kaine, giving Kaine a 0.8% better showing than Obama right around the Allen home. In most areas of the state, the demographics there would have given Kaine around a 2.0% crossover, so you can see a slight improvement for Allen in his home area in net crossover, but not enough to cancel out all of the Romney voters in high income areas that are just not comfortable voting for George Allen ever again.
In the 11th district precincts, Gerry Connolly defeated Chris Perkins in the West Springfield area with a 7,689-6,281 (55.0%) vote. That's a 0.2% better showing for Perkins than Romney but driven by fall off votes not crossover votes. In the Lorton area, Gerry Connolly won by a 4,559-2,746 (62.4%) count on election day over Chris Perkins, again a 0.2% better showing for Perkins than Romney from fall off votes. In the 10th district precincts in the Fairfax Station area, Frank Wolf defeated Kristin Cabral with a vote of 6,242-3,885 (61.6%). That's a 5.4% crossover for Wolf over Romney's numbers in those areas. Finally the Mt. Vernon area of the district in Gunston and Westgate precincts are in the 8th Congressional District. Patrick Murray defeated Jim Moran here with a vote of 2,553-2,332 (52.3%), a 0.4% better showing for Moran than Obama in these areas, but again due to fall off voting instead of crossover voting.
This district is Dave Albo's dream come true. It includes some slightly Democratic-leaning precincts in the West Springfield area full of voters that know Albo personally and have been willing to crossover to vote for him for twenty years. There is a small area of strongly Democratic voters in the Lorton area but those precincts have the worst turnout of any in the immediate area in off year elections. Then the district stretches to include some of the most Republican precincts in Fairfax County, both in the Fairfax Station and Mt. Vernon areas. With these district lines it will take a candidate with tremendous appeal to have any chance of unseating Albo. Given the demographics of this district and the stretched out population the best shot at Albo would be a soccer mom type who could appeal in the areas they might not be known in to start with. Democrats approached Teresa Champion and Laura Sonnenmark to run this year but neither was able or willing to do so. That leaves Albo with a tier three challenger in a district where a tier one challenger would still face an uphill battle. Until the Democrats can get their act together and field a viable candidate here Albo will continue to win on cruise control. If this seat were to open up from an Albo retirement it is drawn to be very competitive and would be a very interesting open seat contest. Many observers expected Albo to face a much tougher contest this year after becoming a youtube sensation last year, but the lack of a viable challenger even after that incident really shows Albo's strength in this district.
Previous Districts Covered
House District #1- Terry Kilgore (Utah)
House District #2- Mark Dudenhefer (Delaware)
House District #3- Will Morefield (Utah)
House District #4- Joe Johnson (Wyoming)
House District #5- Israel O'Quinn (Wyoming)
House District #6- Anne Crockett-Stark (Oklahoma)
House District #7- Nick Rush (Kansas)
House District #8- Greg Habeeb (Arkansas)
House District #9- Charles Poindexter (West Virginia)
House District #10- Randy Minchew (North Carolina)
House District #11- Onzlee Ware (Rhode Island)
House District #12- Joseph Yost (Virginia)
House District #13- Bob Marshall (New Mexico)
House District #14- Danny Marshall (North Carolina)
House District #15- Todd Gilbert (Idaho)
House District #16- Don Merricks (Mississippi)
House District #17- Chris Head (Tennessee)
House District #18- Michael Webert (South Dakota)
House District #19- Lacey Putney (West Virginia)
House District #20- Dickie Bell (Texas)
House District #22- Kathy Byron (Kentucky)
House District #23- Scott Garrett (Idaho)
House District #24- Ben Cline (Arkansas)
House District #25- Steve Landes (Kentucky)
House District #26- Tony Wilt (Mississippi)
House District #28- Bill Howell (Florida)
House District #29- Bev Sherwood (Tennessee)
House District #30- Ed Scott (Montana)
House District #31- Scott Lingamfelter (Minnesota)
House District #32- Tag Greason (New Hampshire)
House District #33- Joe May (Alaska)
House District #36- Ken Plum (Rhode Island)
House District #37- David Bulova (Massachusetts)
House District #40- Tim Hugo (North Carolina)
House District #41- Eileen Filler-Corn (New Jersey)
House District #50- Jackson Miller (Michigan)
House District #51- Rich Anderson (Ohio)
House District #52- Luke Torian (Hawaii)
House District #57- David Toscano (Hawaii)
House District #58- Rob Bell (Texas)
House District #59- Matt Fariss (South Dakota)
House District #60- James Edmunds (North Carolina)
House District #67- Jim LeMunyon (Michigan)
House District #86- Tom Rust (Massachusetts)
House District #87- David Ramadan (Washington)
Why did the two possible Democratic candidates you named not run? I thought Teresa Champion was considering it....
Posted by: Dandem75 | February 17, 2013 at 03:30 PM
I will never understand how you guys didn't run someone against in '07 when the abuser fee debacle was at his height.
Posted by: Chris | February 17, 2013 at 03:53 PM
So you're closing in on halfway through the House of Delegates.
Way to go Ben! Keep up the good (and hard) work.
Looking forward to a big picture analysis.
I noticed this.
Obama's big three declines relative to 2008 are all in the Southwest. 1st, 3rd, and 4th. He absolutely collapsed in these districts, which even in other Republican district he still held close to 2008's performance.
My two cents, it shows how out of touch a number of Virginia Democrats are who were talking up the chances of taking back Boucher's seat in 2012. They shut up before it would become too noticeable, but they totally misread what's been going on in Southwest Virginia. And sadly many of them have deep roots in the area.
Obama's best performance is in a number of Northern Virginia seats held by Republicans. Democrats need to remember how to turn out voters in an off year if they stand a chance.
Also, Bulova and Filler-Corn look a lot safer than they did right after redistricting. Something I think you haven't entirely admitted yet.
Posted by: VirginiaLib | February 17, 2013 at 10:38 PM
I am pleased to announce an extremely FORMIDABLE CANDIDATE has entered the race, Edward Deitsch. He is what Virginia has needed for a long time, a man who truly cares about the issues that matter to all of his constituents. You are right Larry! Women really matter to this district, and as a woman, I need a dedicated candidate who is willing to work tirelessly and endlessly to protect women's rights, families, schools and the things that truly matter to the people.
He is focused and determined to bring the dignity and pride back to
Virginia.
Look out Larry.... Edward Deitsch is going to get it done for all of us!
Posted by: Gail Mates | February 18, 2013 at 07:54 PM