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I shudder at the thought of Northam as the Gov nominee in '17. He is a sequel to Deeds. Herring better win tomorrow.


Dem sweep....easily. If there's going to be an upset....watch Gary Miller in Danville. If the wave is large enough, that's a seat that could flip.


I've been a small bit nervous about Kincaid, not that she'll lose, but that it will be closer than some expect.

There is no party label on the Sheriff's line on the ballot. Both candidates have zero name recognition. And, from what I've seen canvassing a bunch, a lot of people have no idea there is a special election for Sheriff on the ballot. This being a Governor's election, there also will be more low-information voters than in an off-off year, and those people, too, can be prone to vote against their preference if they knew the candidates.

The biggest thing Kincaid has going for her in my mind is Democratic volunteers handing out sample ballots at the polling place. This is the one race in Fairfax County where those pieces of paper can really matter.


Wow, I knew McGrady was competitive, I know a guy who worked field for him for awhile and shared that with me, but I had no idea he held a clear lead. I never would've guessed that as the Dems' "most likely" pickup.


He lead in the summer in both GOP and Dem polling by almost 10 points while no other challenger at that time was closer than 8 points down. Obviously he's headed one direction while others have gone the other way.


I had heard that McAuliffe was actually running surprisingly close in HD-6, and I figured McGrady must be doing OK, but up high-single digits is stunning.


high single digits to start- not anymore.


I know, I'm saying I'm stunned it was EVER high single-digits.


Ben, re HD-34 & Callahan, the '95 election was before the two shutdowns. The first 5-day shutdown started in mid-November. The long one started a month later, in mid-December. We (I was affected and paying close attention) weren't so sure a shutdown was going to happen as of early November).


Also, I'm not sure how reliable it is to assume the Loudoun precincts will outperform Fairfax for us. Danner two years ago performed less than one-quarter of one percent better in Loudoun than in Fairfax, which is to say a trivial difference.


ur right, although i remember it being a big issue in the race around sept 30 because something happened then. anyway, will try to pull stuff up from that when i finish these other districts.


in terms of danner- loudoun running close to ffx numbers is a formula for GOP to win there, not a formula likely to work for dems.


I know and like both Murphy and Boysko a lot (I live in 34 & am active in that campaign), and I hope they both win, but I'm seeing Murphy with a bit better chance than Boysko. Rust is just very, very well-liked and tough.


Between them, depends how turnout is. Boysko has a lot more Dems, especially ones that don't vote in off years and have no idea who Rust is. If she turns them out, she stands the best chance. If her electorate is same people who have voted for Rust for 20 years, then Murphy has a better chance.


McGrady up by high single districts early on means nothing without the context of how many undecideds were in the poll and how the race was developing at the top of the ticket. I could easily see McGrady locking down the base Democratic vote early on, but with a large block of undecideds who would lean GOP if pushed.


One thing I will say -- a lot of people wrote off Boysko and Murphy this summer, but Braddock District really liked what we saw and sent both of them money -- the first time (in recent memory) we'd sent money outside or our boundaries. We've also contributed to races in Loudoun and PW -- we're just as excited about these races as we are our own!!

And we made a small contribution to the students who were organizing student voters in Blacksburg and Radford, and several of us made personal contributions there as well. Some of us really do feel like we have a stake in a LOT of these races tonight, and are thrilled that we're even in the hunt!

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