Not Larry Sabato

No Home Field Advantage For Chopra in Northern Virginia

Check out these numbers from last night

South Hampton Roads
Ralph Northam 19,145 (66.8%)
Aneesh Chopra 9,503 (33.2%)

Northern Virginia
Ralph Northam 23,582 (51.3%)
Aneesh Chopra 22,398 (48.7%)

Rest of Virginia
Ralph Northam 35,601 (51.0%)
Aneesh Chopra 34,191 (49.0%)

You can see an excellent map of the precinct results from Kenton Ngo here.  A couple of things jump out at me.

Chopra underperformed everywhere, but he did better in the cocktail party circuit precincts.  Running along the Potomac River from McLean and Great Falls through Arlington, Alexandria and into the Mt. Vernon area are areas with well organized Democrats who attend lots of events and fundraisers.  Many people choose to live in the higher priced areas of Northern Virginia because of shorter commutes into the city and so there is a much bigger federal influence.

I've circled these precincts (approximating) in a screen shot of Kenton's map.  While Chopra failed to sweep them (that itself is an underperformance), he did win a lot of precincts in this area and carried it overall.  

So Chopra won the inner beltway cocktail party circuit- and he narrowly carried Prince William and Loudoun Counties.  In Prince William he did better in the southern area of the county where there is a large minority population and Loudoun was mostly voters coming out for Mark Herring who didn't seem to have strong preferences for Lt. Governor.

So where did Chopra fall apart?  Starting around the beltway all the way to Rt. 123 (where zoning changes the demographics) in Fairfax County.  These are neighborhoods full of older white voters that dominate primaries.  Ironically many of these neighborhoods have very large asian populations, but those voters are hard to turnout in general elections and are often invisible in party primaries.  Chopra's campaign appears to have totally missed these voters- and these precincts Northam prevailed by a margin of several thousand votes- giving him enough margin to carry Fairfax County by almost 2,000 overall.

In fact, the older the precinct voters were, the bigger margin that Northam got.  In Greenspring precinct- a retirement community with an onsite polling place- Northam won 245-73 (77%).  In Skyline precinct which includes a huge retirement community at Goodwin House Northam won 181-80 (69%).  

In fact, it is quite probable from these results that Northam won by a 2-1 margin over Chopra among white seniors in Fairfax County.  

That margin for Northam destroyed Chopra's other efforts in Northern Virginia leaving Chopra's home region giving Northam a slightly higher percentage than he got in the rest of Virginia- even after subtracting Northam's win in his own base.  

At the end of night most of Northam's 12,236 vote margin came from his 9,642 vote win in south Hampton Roads.  Chopra could have easily made that up in his own home region which cast 60% more ballots than Northam's home region- but failed to do because of his performance among seniors and outside of the cocktail party circuit.  In fact, even in the areas Chopra won you could safely assume that he was still losing seniors to Northam- holding down his margin of victory there.

This is a primary Aneesh Chopra lost, not one Ralph Northam won.

ELECTION NIGHT COVERAGE

Click here to listen live.

Updates here as we have races called. 

Record Low Turnout in Democratic Primary

Starting at 6 p.m. I will be on the John Fredericks radio show livestream to discuss what is happening today and we will stay on until every race is called.  Link up here at 6.  Will also be liveblogging.  

Here's what we know so far:

Turnout for the Democratic Primary is going to be the lowest turnout of any statewide primary in history.

Aneesh Chopra seems to have an edge on Ralph Northam based on turnout models.  The Attorney General's race between Mark Herring and Justin Fairfax looks much closer.  With turnout so small, one big surge anywhere could change everything.

In addition tonight we have 3 Democratic primaries for House of Delegates and 7 Republican primaries for the House of Delegates along with a few key local elections.

Bob Brink Endorses Negative Campaigns!

One of the things that will drive any sane people involved in politics to the crazy side is the absolute hypocrisy dished out on a daily basis.  Today for example, I got Bob Brink's endorsement email of Aneesh Chopra.  Let's review Brink's endorsement of BaBaFavola from 2011:

“I’m disappointed that my friend Jaime Areizaga-Soto has been persuaded that victory in the primary can be achieved through slick negative campaign mailings,’’ Brink wrote in a statement. “Voters in our region have shown repeatedly that they want their public officials to talk about the issues that touch their daily lives, and that they have little tolerance for Karl Rove-style mudslinging. Any candidate who doesn’t understand that is unqualified to represent us.”

I'm also supporting Chopra.  But there is no question that Chopra has gone the same route that Areizaga-Soto went in 2011 with slick negative mailings.  For those people out there that still don't understand, let me break this to you gently.  Brink endorses whoever he wants to endorse- for whatever reasons he wants to endorse- and then fills in the reasons for that endorsement.  He is not a neutral referee that is watching things evenly, he is a politician who is endorsing candidates likely to win and work with him in the future.

I'm not bashing Brink who I actually like- just stating the facts- his endorsements are sanctimonious bullshit.  Sadly, thanks to Brink and others- Arlington now has a Senator that has her best two way conversations with voters via robocalls.

While we are the sanctimonious train, let's take a ride out to Loudoun County where Democratic Committee members this week voted to nominate Liz Miller by a 32-30 vote over the option of not fielding a candidate against Tag Greason.  Why was the vote so close to have a Democratic candidate against a GOP incumbent?  The Miller's- Liz and her husband Stevens (a former Loudoun Supervisor) opposed incumbent Democratic Supervisor Andrea McGimsey for re-election in 2011, then Stevens dropped a robocall on the final weekend opposing Democratic Supervisor Kelly Burk's re-election.  I understand both sides to this debate between having a candidate or not having a candidate the party couldn't trust- and the debate absolutely deserved to happen as Liz Miller needs to regain the trust of local Democrats to carry their banner.  I'm still furious about what happened in 2011 myself, but that's not worth allowing a reported sexual predator (from testimony under oath) to go unopposed again for the House.

But after the meeting- after Miller won fair and square and became the Democratic nominee- a number of LCDC members resigned from leadership positions and some from the committee in protest.  So because Miller did not support all Democratic nominees in 2011, the people upset about that will now refuse to support a Democratic nominee in retaliation?  Talk about completely losing the high road.  The committee members doing this are now doing exactly what they complained that Miller did in not supporting a Democratic nominee!  Loudoun- get your act together and put the past behind you- everyone is looking silly right now.

Fairfax v. Fairfax

After an election in 2012 that was run terribly, Fairfax County Democrats filed a lawsuit against the Fairfax County elections office that is still pending today.  That's good, because it seems like an amendment may be needed with the office continuing to violate voter rights during this 2013 Democratic Primary.

Yesterday, the only statewide candidate on the ballot from Fairfax County- Justin Fairfax- showed up to vote absentee.  He will be travelling Virginia on election day and according to 24.2-700 Section 1, you can vote absentee if you leave your home county/city on election day.  Instead of giving Fairfax his ballot, he was denied it at first by an elections officer because he couldn't tell them exactly what localities he was going to visit on election day!  Finally after a significant delay he was allowed to vote.

Imagine this for a moment if the person being interrogated was not a former AUSA (Assistant United States Attorney) who is now a candidate for Attorney General.  These types of questions, or the office suggesting they were ineligible would make most people throw their hands up and walk out.  It is absolutely voter suppression, and completely unacceptable.

Hopefully the Fairfax judge hearing this case from 2012 will also take into account what is happening in 2013 and put some real judicial oversight on Fairfax County's office of elections before the general election this year.

Interstate 66

Tonight was the final debate between Aneesh Chopra and Ralph Northam before the primary on June 11th.  This weekend I walked into the first of three NoVA debates in five days as a voter that was undecided but to be honest I was slightly leaning towards Northam because of his excellent bio and Chopra had run a campaign that was starting to get on my nerves.  By the end of the two debates this weekend I had firmly decided to vote for Aneesh Chopra.

With the excitement from the weekend debates having been well discussed on the internet, Arlington Democrats tonight decided to give voters a snoozefest of a debate instead.  Almost half of the questions were directing the candidates to bash the GOP- fun for Democrats- but pretty useless in a primary debate to help voters figure out who they want to support.  Some of the other questions were deep in the policy weeds.

But on a question about transportation, we actually got some important information.

Ralph Northam actually stood up and said that he was unfamiliar with the issues around Interstate 66 and "would need to do more homework" on that.  He apologized for not having done his research.

This absolutely floors me.  Transportation is one of the most important issues in Virginia.  There are only 6 interstate highways that run through Virginia (excluding spurs and loops).  Four are north-south, and two are east-west.  Interstate highway issues are not some local parochial thing but are at the absolute core of transportation planning in the state.

All Northam was left to say after that was the current Virginia Secretary of Transportation (Sean Connaughton) was not doing a good job and that he hoped Terry McAuliffe would appoint a better one.

For those voters concerned with electability- pay attention now.  The chances of E.W. Jackson making it to November on the ballot for the GOP are becoming slimmer by the day.  There will probably be a real Republican candidate running for this position soon.  If Northam made a statement like this in front of the Fairfax County Chamber he would be laughed out of the room and would no longer even be considered a credible candidate.  

The most important thing for voters to consider is that Northam has been campaigning as the policy expert ready to lead the Virginia Senate that he has served in for the last six years.  But he doesn't understand interstate highway issues yet?  This is devastating to his core argument on why he should be elected.

Aneesh Chopra clearly has more work to do himself to get ready, but he avoided making the major gaffes that Northam made over the last week.  And he knew what I-66 was.  Elections are about your choices on the ballot- and voters should have a clear one for Lt. Governor now.  

FLASHBACK TO 2005

With a week to go until the Democratic Primary, the Richmonder reminds us what Ralph Northam's Chief of Staff Jay Ford was up to politically in 2005:

Mark Sickles Misleads Voters

Mark Sickles misrepresents his personal life to voters 
of the 43rd district to bolster education credentials.

Last week Mark Sickles sent a mail piece deliberately misleading the voters in the 43rd district. The mailer portrayed Mark prominently on the front of the piece cradling a toddler in his arms in a fatherly embrace. The problem is Mark Sickles does not have a child or a family.

“After this mail piece came out our office received multiple phone calls from confused voters asking, ‘Does Mark have a child?’”, stated Jay Ford, Campaign Manager for Ron Grignol. “We did not know what people were talking about. We knew Mark to be unmarried with no children, so this naturally came as a surprise to us,” commented Ford. “Once we saw the mail piece, we understood why so many people were puzzled,” said Ford.

“I have always made it clear to citizens that my children allowed me a unique understanding of educational needs in the Northern Virginia , because I am a user of the system. That is why I find it so troubling that Mark Sickles feels he needs to mislead voters to believe he has this same background,” said Ron Grignol, candidate for the House of Delegates. “The firsthand experience I have with the SOL’s and extracurricular programming is important to understanding how we can improve our schools, how we can get our teachers more pay, and how we can eliminate overcrowding. This is experience that Mark Sickles simply does not have,” commented Ron Grignol.

“We noticed in debates that when people commented on Mark Sickles having children or a family, he never once corrected them, but we never thought he would go so far as to deliberately deceive voters like this,” said Jay Ford. “It is disheartening to see how the political process has denigrated so very much, that a candidate would attempt to purposely mislead our citizens and hope it went unnoticed,” Ford lamented.

“It is my hope that in the remaining weeks of this campaign Mark Sickles can be forthright concerning his personal background, and elevate the level of integrity from that which his campaign is currently running,” stated Ron Grignol candidate for the House of Delegates.

###

This incident is still remembered as being the lowest moment in Northern Virginia politics in the last decade.  So has Jay Ford changed his ways since his days as Jay Ford?  I don't know him personally so I can't say.  Lots of people have evolved on these types of issues over the last decade.

Either way- it's a little bit much to swallow to hear Ford complaining about Aneesh Chopra's "negative" mail when he was involved in this political hate crime type incident.  As Marc Fisher said at the time, "I'll wait while you wipe off the slime."

Ralph Northam needs to publicly speak about this and give people insight into his decision making process.  Did he do the research to know about this incident before he hired Ford as a staffer?  If he did, what assurances did he receive?  Unfortunately, the Northam team in this primary has been extremely insular and secretive so the rest of us are left wondering about the Senator who wants to be the tie-breaking vote in the Virginia Senate.

Endorsement for Attorney General

There was a time last year when it appeared Mark Herring might be nominated for Attorney General of Virginia without a contest.  Like Steve Shannon four years earlier the field cleared early and Herring consolidated most of the needed support.  But then a new candidate emerged who most Virginia Democrats had never heard of before- Justin Fairfax.  Initially not seen as a threat, Fairfax has impressed a lot of people with his energy, speaking and people skills.

As of today the primary is only eight days away.  Virginia Democrats now have to make the choice between Senator Herring and the potential future star Justin Fairfax.  I think the choice is clear- voters should select Senator Mark Herring as their nominee for Attorney General.  Here's why:

Herring has served as a Virginia Senator since a 2006 special election.  His district includes most of Loudoun County- a key area for Democrats this fall.  Herring was the only Democrat to survive the 2011 wave in Loudoun that elected a 9-0 GOP controlled Board of Supervisors and a 7-0 GOP advantage in the House of Delegates delegation from Loudoun.  Herring knows the issues and is well positioned to run against the GOP candidate- Senator Mark Obenshain from Harrisonburg.

On the other side of the coin, Justin Fairfax has shown tremendous potential as a candidate, but his campaign has been a disaster.  You might be wondering why you haven't yet gotten a mailing from Fairfax even as the other three candidates on June 11th have been sending them out.  That's because he spent over $100,000 to Fieldworks to get on the ballot.  Many local Democratic Committees were circulating petitions for candidates who asked and would have provided him with most of the signatures he needed- but Fairfax never brought anyone on to his campaign that even knew that.  Now, he has former staffers threatening to sue him over unpaid wages and almost no money in the bank to communicate with voters before June 11th.  

Putting Fairfax on the ballot after this primary campaign is like throwing a cow into a lions den for dinner.  Mark Obenshain will win easily and in the process destroy a potential future Democratic star.

This primary reminds me of one when I was in high school.  The district next door to where I lived had their Delegate pass away a few weeks before the General Assembly session in 1997.  Three Democratic candidates stepped forward- Fairfax City Councilwoman Julia Lyman, Chap Petersen and Les Schoene.  Lyman won that nomination narrowly over Petersen, who was then a 27 year old attorney running for his first office.  Had Petersen won he would have been crushed in the special election for the seat- probably by an even wider margin than Lyman lost.  By fielding him on the ballot, Democrats might have ended his political career before it even started.  The same goes true here for Fairfax- by fielding him on the ballot now, Democrats would likely be ruining any chance he has in the future.

So the short of it is this.  If you like Mark Herring you should vote for him.  If you like Justin Fairfax and want him to go on to have a successful career in politics, you should also vote for Mark Herring.  If you can't stand Justin Fairfax and want to ruin his career then that is the only reason you should vote for Justin Fairfax.

More News in LG Race This Morning

Usually in the last month of an election, candidates are well on message and not making much news.  That is not the case in the Democratic Primary For Lt. Governor coming up on June 11th.

This morning in Springfield at a candidate's debate, Ralph Northam said he was "open" to "power sharing" with Senate Republicans if he was elected if "they played fairly".  After the GOP used the Lt. Governor to break a 20-20 tie earlier this year to take total control, it is major news to have a Democratic candidate say they would use the same power to share with Republicans rather than take total control for the Democrats.

Most important- "power sharing" is exactly the kind of deal Northam was trying to work out in 2009 with Tommy Norment that led to him almost abandoning the Democratic Caucus.  Northam still discussing such a plan shows he is still open to exactly what he was trying to do in 2009- even after the GOP showed it would not do the same when they took control.

Before anyone casts a vote for Ralph Northam on June 11th, they should be very clear of this fact.  If Northam wants to power share he should tell voters exactly what committees he would allow Republicans to maintain control over if he was elected Lt. Governor.  

Vote For Aneesh Chopra

This afternoon I got a chance to attend a Lt. Governor's debate between Ralph Northam and Aneesh Chopra.  Both candidates were doing pretty well until late in the debate, when the decisive moment occurred that every voter should know about.

In 2009 Ralph Northam considered changing parties over a dispute with fellow Norfolk Senator Yvonne Miller.  Northam denies this- saying he "never" was going to "switch parties".  This is an outright lie.  GOP Leader Tommy Norment had filed the motion to change party control of some Senate committees that Northam had pledged his support to.  This is public record!!!!  Northam denying it happened is absolutely absurd.

Even worse, when Aneesh Chopra quoted a Virginian Pilot article written by Julian Walker from the day this happened, Northam called Walker a "liar" and then tried to claim no such article existed.  Unfortunately for Northam it is 2013 and audience members were searching and pulling it up on their phones while he was speaking.  Then Northam went on to claim that Rachel Maddow "got her information from Jeff Frederick".  Maddow is one of the most respected names in progressive journalism, and to suggest that she had a false report and/or listens to Jeff Frederick is disgusting. 

To top it all off, Northam then gave the crowd a lecture on his previous service on the VMI honor committee and said any questioning of his version of the "truth" was an attack on his honor.  It's hard to pull off such a lecture while you are telling the crowd an outright lie, but Northam did it anyway.

I planned to stay neutral in this primary, but after this performance today it is clear that while we have two flawed candidates, the choice for Democrats in this primary is Aneesh Chopra.  Democrats can not afford to field a candidate against E.W. Jackson who will lie to an audience like this- and not understand that in the 21st century everyone can see he is lying.  Ralph Northam has no place on the ballot after this performance.