Not Larry Hussein Sabato

Governor Bill Bolling

The more I think about it... a Governor Bill Bolling is actually the biggest "legacy" Tim Kaine would leave Virginia if he was selected for Vice President.

How truly appropriate is that?

Glenn Nye's 24 Hour Fundraiser

See it ongoing here.

Bob McDonnell's Big Award

On Friday Bob McDonnell sent out an email update on Friday about an article that praises his cooperation with the “Internet Keep Safe Coalition” for working to protect kids from online child sex predators.   

So who is the "Internet Keep Safe Coalition"?  Well, a quick search shows they gave SENATOR LARRY CRAIG their 2007 “Internet Keep Safe Coalition Award”   

I contacted McDonnell's office for comment and they "don't recall" if Bob was introduced to this group in a bathroom stall or not....

The Politics of Fear- and PROUD OF IT

From the WaPo:

"With our new law, these people who are here illegally should be afraid of living anywhere in Virginia right now," said Del. David B. Albo (R-Fairfax), who helped write the law and chairs the state's crime commission. "If you're here illegally, it's not any scarier to live in Prince William than in any other county."

A legislator who is proud of making people afraid. I'm too stunned for words.

42nd District residents- Here's an idea.  If Dave Albo walks on your property without permission to knock on your door, just come out of your house swinging a baseball bat and chase him to the sidewalk. 

He won't mind- he thinks living in fear is a cool thing.

Voter Fraud in Hampton Roads

Voter ID at the polls is looking better and better...

Gilmore and Kaine- The Same Governorship?

It's remarkable looking back at how almost identical the Tim Kaine and Jim Gilmore stories are.

Both were little known local officials in the Richmond area with no General Assembly experience.  Gilmore was Commonwealth Attorney in Henrico County, and Kaine was a City Councilman elected from one-ninth of the City of Richmond, who was later selected by his fellow Councilman to Chair the meetings.  This gave him the title of "Mayor" but at that time in Richmond, "Mayor" was just the Councilman who ran the meetings and wasn't even elected city-wide.

Both of these local officials in Richmond gained notability through hardball racial politics.  Gilmore as Commonwealth's Attorney pushed cases involving white victims and black defendants, and used that to ride to huge popularity in the white community in the Richmond suburbs.  Kaine became the first white "Mayor" in modern Richmond City history with the votes of a few African American Councilman.  Kaine's popularity soared- but much of that popularity was in the white majority suburbs of Richmond.  Kaine's politics at the time were clearly left of center city politics, but white conservatives in the suburbs overlooked that because he was a white Mayor of Richmond- something they had been waiting for.

Both Gilmore and Kaine as local officials watched the opposite party control state government during their rise in local government.  In Gimore's case, all three statewide officials were Democrats (Wilder/Beyer/Terry) and in Kaine's case, all three were Republicans (Gilmore/Hager/Earley).  In Gilmore's case he watched Governor Wilder's popularity falling as he considered running for Attorney General.  In Kaine's case, he ironically watched as Governor Gilmore's popularity faded.

Both caught major breaks as they considered statewide races.  Gilmore benefited from numerous bigger names deciding not to run statewide and ended up facing Salem Delegate Steve Agee for the nomination.  Kaine's road to a 2001 campaign was blocked by Democrats who had almost unanimous support for a ticket of Mark Warner and Emily Couric.  But in summer of 2000 when Couric announced she had pancreatic cancer and dropped out of the campaign- Kaine began preparing a statewide campaign within hours and began making calls for support before the end of the week.

While both Gilmore and Kaine were starting their first statewide campaigns, another loss struck again for their parties.  With the state already controlled by the other party, both saw the Presidency flip to the other party also (1992- Clinton, 2000- Bush).  With all three statewide offices and the Presidency now controlled by the other party, Gilmore and Kaine were handed a weapon as local officials looking to put a "new face" on their parties among activists starving for a victory.   

Both Kaine and Gilmore faced nomination contests that were overshadowed by other state politics.  In Gilmore's case, it was the rise of George Allen and his contested nomination for Governor at the convention.  In Kaine's case, it was the battle among Republicans between Mark Earley and John Hager for Governor.  Either way, both campaigns got very little press or attention in the public outside of party activists.

After winning their party nominations (Kaine for LG, Gilmore for AG), both were shunned by their ticketmate for Governor and forced to run their own political organizations.  In Gilmore's case, it was a battle between Allen loyalists like Mike Thomas, and his political organization headed by Boyd Marcus.  In Kaine's case, Mark Warner actually called a press conference just to distance himself from Kaine.  As one paper reported:  " Kaine’s vulnerabilities were not lost on Warner, who distanced himself from his fellow Democrat the day after Kaine won the lieutenant governor nomination. At a press conference for the 2001 Democratic ticket-mates, Warner told reporters that he disagreed with Kaine’s views on guns and capital punishment. Both men were elected that fall in spite of their sour campaign kickoff."

Weak candidates or not, the general public doesn't usually pick up on party rifts like these, and both Kaine and Gilmore were elected along with their candidates for Governor.  But both also faced an interesting circumstance going forward- the other candidate elected statewide was of the other party.  For Attorney General Jim Gilmore this was Lt. Governor Don Beyer, while for Lt. Governor Tim Kaine this was Attorney General Jerry Kilgore.  Every time in modern Virginia history that the two downballot winners were of opposite parties- they faced each other for Governor in four years.  Much to Mark Warner and George Allen's displeasure, Kaine and Gilmore would likely be their party's candidates to replace them as Governor.

Both new Governors suffered big defeats in the next election. George Allen had strongly supported and put his organization behind Ollie North- who came up short in his 1994 challenge to Chuck Robb.  Mark Warner got transportation referendums on the ballot in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads, and then watched them got get obliterated at the polls.

Leading into the midterm elections for their Governors, Gilmore and Kaine traveled the state to small events for local candidates.  Drawing small crowds of party activists, Gilmore and Kaine both consolidated their support within the party to ensure there would be no challenge within the party for Governor.

In 1996 and 2004 both Gilmore and Kaine saw the Presidents of the other party re-elected, one year before their big moment of running for Governor.

Meanwhile, both Governor Allen and Governor Warner had soaring popularity ratings.  It was clear both would leave office with political futures ahead of them, but they needed one last victory:  keeping the Governorship within their party.  That meant Allen holding his nose for Gilmore, and Warner holding his nose for Kaine both of whom had been barely supported when running downballot from their Governor.

However, neither Governor Allen or Governor Warner was ready to give up control of the party to their junior partners preparing to run for Governor.  Allen kept the RPV fully under his control, while Warner blocked an attempt by Kaine to select the new DPVA Chair, pushing aside Kaine's choice Larry Roberts.

Even with popular Governors, Gilmore and Kaine struggled for most of their campaigns for Governor.  Just after Labor Day the Washington Post did a poll showing Don Beyer leading 44-43.  Meanwhile Jerry Kilgore had led by double digits for much of the year, and continued to hold 4-6 point leads around Labor Day.  Huge post labor day swings towards Gilmore and Kaine in the last couple months, gave Gilmore a 13 point victory, while Kaine won by 6 points.

Gilmore's campaign was regarded for having taken off for the "No Car Tax" slogan, while much of the credit for Kaine's victory went to Kilgore's mistakes.  But it is unlikely either one of them would have been elected without popular outgoing Governor's of their party stumping hard for their election.

The late surges by Gilmore and Kaine had one major causality:  The House of Delegates.  Late surges happen well after candidate recruitment is complete, leaving weaker candidates on the field than would have been there otherwise.  Both Kaine and Gilmore only reduced the opposition control of the House by two seats.  Gilmore from 53 to 51, Kaine from 60 to 58.  Both Governors-Elect began using appointments to create special elections.  Gilmore went 7-0 in his special elections, picking up one more seat in the House of Delegates, and one extra seat in the State Senate.  Kaine went 3-2 in his special elections, but since only one had been controlled by a Democrat before, there was net pickup of two seats.  Like Gilmore, it was one House seat, and one Senate seat.

Fresh off their victories, both Kaine and Gilmore began eying takeover of the legislature in the midterm elections.  Kaine eyed the Virginia Senate, while Gilmore eyed the House of Delegates.  Both Governors took the lead on candidate recruitment and funding, and spent record amounts of money.  Gilmore with his successful start of repealing the car tax, and Kaine with his excellent speech after Virginia Tech had souring popularity ratings, and they were ready to spend political capital to gain control of the legislature.

And election nights in 1999 and 2007 ended with almost identical images.  Jim Gilmore raising the hand of Speaker-Elect Vance Wilkins, while Tim Kaine raised the hand of Majority Leader-Elect Dick Saslaw.

Both Kaine and Gilmore were also eying national politics and trying to make their names as key Governors.  Gilmore was an early endorser of Governor George Bush, and Kaine was an early endorser of Senator Barack Obama.  The Bush-McCain primary was still very close coming into Virginia, while the Obama-Clinton primary was also in doubt as Virginia came up on the calender.  Gilmore led Bush to a victory in Virginia, a key victory when Bush needed it most.  Obama crushed Clinton in Virginia during his February run of Delegates that proved to be decisive after Clinton began winning later primaries.

Meanwhile, both Gilmore and Kaine watched as the Governors that put them into office began running for the U.S. Senate.  In 2000, with John Warner in the Senate a victory by George Allen would give Republicans control of both U.S. Senate seats.  This would give Gilmore no real path to anything in the future, a frustration for him.  Meanwhile, in 2008 with Jim Webb in the Senate and Mark Warner running, it was clear to Kaine he had no real path to anything in the future, a great frustration for him.

But neither Kaine or Gilmore was content with being a party uniter in Virginia, while helping their favorite Presidential candidates.  Both jumped into June Congressional primaries in open seats.  Gilmore went 1-1, helping Eric Cantor defeat Steve Martin, while coming up short with Paul Jost against Jo Ann Davis.  Kaine only had one open seat, and helped Gerry Connolly defeat Leslie Byrne.  It's worth noting that in 2000 George Allen decided to stay as a uniter within the Republican Party and did not get involved in either Congressional primary while he was running for the Senate- Mark Warner did the same in 2008.  This kept both former Governors as nearly unanimously popular within their own parties, while Gilmore and Kaine both began to languish without a united party behind them any longer.

Meanwhile, both Governors were watching their approval ratings sink- as the legislature defied them.  Gilmore's battle was with the Republican Senate, while Kaine's battle has been with the Republican House of Delegates.  But as gridlock began in Richmond, voters blamed the Governor.  Gilmore's car tax stalled, Kaine failed to get anything done on transportation, and opinion polls began to show the public turning against their formerly popular Governors.

And that's all we know so far.  By the end of that Presidential year, George Allen had won the other U.S. Senate seat in 2000 (giving Virginia two GOP Senators, and Gilmore no obvious moves), and we expect Mark Warner to do the same this year in 2008 for Kaine, giving him two Democratic Senators and no obvious moves. 

We also know Democrats united in 2001 with no primary for Mark Warner, while Republicans have united behind Bob McDonnell in 2009.  Gilmore failed to stop the party from splintering in a fight between Mark Earley and John Hager.  Kaine so far appears to be unable to stop the party from splintering in a fight between Brian Moran and Creigh Deeds.

These careers have remarkable parallels so far.  A bright future destroyed by jealousy for the Governor before them and totally insulated from popular opinion as their advisers huddle around and tell them how popular they are.  The only question left is, can Tim Kaine do anything to save himself from being the Democratic version of Jim Gilmore?   Or is it too late?

100 Days Away Tomorrow- UPDATED

Democrats who are upset with the failed Governor Tim Kaine- please consider putting some time in to help Mark Warner.  As Mike Henry just pointed out in an email, we are now 100 days from election day. 

If Mark Warner is elected we will have two Democratic U.S. Senators.  That means assuming Kaine is stopped from the VP nomination his advisers know his only road back to elected office is through a primary to Jim Webb- which they are already eying.  I believe that by 2012 if Kaine does attempt this selfish primary challenge that his record of failure will have been fully exposed and Senator Webb will be renominated.

But if something happens and Mark Warner loses, Tim Kaine will have a method back into public office.  We can not let this happen.  Ever. Having two Democratic Senators boxes Kaine in from a return to public office- possibly for decades- and gives Virginia Democrats strong public faces in the U.S. Senate to recover from this failed Governorship. 

The pieces are in place to end this failed era in Richmond.  Let's not miss this opportunity- please do everything you can to help elect Mark Warner now.

UPDATE: If you didn't see it yet, check out this post from RK, called "We Won't Get Kained Again".  They are also drawing the strong distinction between Kaine and real Virginia Democrats like Warner and Webb.

John McCain Has Better Ads So Far

Give Jody Credit: She is Loyal to Someone

From her Congressional Campaign: 

"Possibly with an eye on McCain's strong districtwide showing (60% of the primary vote), Democrat Wagner has utilized the name of the Arizona Republican in her campaign. Hailing McCain as "a public figure with a strong commitment for doing what is right," Wagner told cheering supporters in April that "his own party may have rejected this message, but I embrace it."

John McCain/Jody Wagner 08?

Is he going for a record?

Tim Kaine executes another prisoner tonight.